Legal Representation in Immigration Courts Leads to Better Outcomes, Economic Stability

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


 

New Jersey should create a universal representation program that is publicly-funded to provide free, court-appointed counsel to low-income immigrants in New Jersey who are detained and facing deportation in immigration courts.

Studies have shown that offering legal representation in immigration court increases the likelihood of an individual winning their case, being released to their families, and consequently improving the lives of families.[1] In addition, legal representation has positive impacts in the communities where immigrants reside as deportations not only hurt the individuals, but also their families and local economies. Creating a universal representation program that expands access to counsel for detained immigrants will not only bolster New Jersey’s immigrant families, but the broader state economy.

Key Findings

  • In New Jersey, individuals detained for civil immigration violations are three times as likely to prevail in their cases when they have legal representation.[2] With legal representation, they are also twice as likely to be released prior to the end of their removal proceedings.[3]
  • New Jersey employers pay $5.9 million in turnover-related costs annually as they are forced to replace detained or deported employees.[4]
  • New Jersey’s economy would lose $18 million in wages and$1.6 million in total tax revenue annually from detained immigrants.[5]
  • Annually, detentions and deportations cost New Jersey approximately $732,000 in child health insurance and $203,000 in foster care for children of detained or deported parents.[6] This total annual cost of nearly $1 million does not include the long-term costs associated with child trauma, development, and health conditions from deporting their parents.

Legal Representation Keeps New Jersey Families Together
In New Jersey, immigration arrests have increased by 42 percentunder the Trump Administration, far outpacing the national average.[7] As ICE increases arrests at an alarming rate, thousands of people across New Jersey, including U.S. citizens, immigrants with legal permanent residence, visa holders, and undocumented immigrants have been detained and separated from their families and communities, and detached from local economies that depend on them to prosper.

When immigrants in New Jersey are detained and do not have access to legal representation, they are deported 86% of the time.[8] For many of these individuals, they will never be able to return to the United States and reunite with their families.

The journey through immigration court can be lengthy and complicated. In New Jersey, the average detainee spends 62 days in a detention facility.[9] Some immigrants spend their entire removal proceedings jailed in detention centers waiting for their case to be heard and decided by an immigration judge. Others are detained and later released on bond to await trial. Federal government mandates nearly 40,000 immigration beds to be filled by detainees at any given time.[10]

Immigration courts are not required to provide immigrants legal counsel like in the criminal justice system, as deportation is a civil rather than criminal matter. Whether immigrants have access to legal counsel or not, the government proceeds with the immigration case and immigrants are left to fend for themselves in court against a trained government attorney who seeks their removal.

In New Jersey, about 67 percent of people in immigration detention do not have access to legal counsel and must fight their deportation case without a lawyer by their side. Also, detained immigrants in the Garden State are particularly vulnerable: only 14% of immigrants detained throughout their proceedings are able to avoid deportation without legal representation.[11]

Moreover, immigrants and their families are facing greater threats from the federal government than they have in decades. The current administration has made it clear that immigrants without a criminal record are priority for deportation, including parents of U.S. citizen children. Over the past three years, federal immigration authorities have also wrongly detained more than one thousand U.S. citizens.

The Trump administration has also increased the number of immigrants vulnerable to deportation by ending the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program for 6 of the 10 designated countries. In New Jersey, about 13,900 people from El Salvador, Honduras, and Haiti will lose their work permit and protection from deportation by 2020. Also, the uncertainty of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) could threaten New Jersey’s 17,000 DACA recipients and 53,000 DACA eligible young peopleinto with imminent deportation.

Lack of Access to Legal Representation is a Drag on New Jersey’s Economy
New Jersey employers bear a large fiscal burden of turnover costs related to detention and deportation. Based on our projections, employers in New Jersey pay an estimated $5.9 millionin turnover-related costs annually as they are forced to replace detained or deported employees. Consequently, employers lose money and production due to a sudden reduction in the workforce.

The financial burden does not stop with employer turnover-related costs, but spills over to the broader state economy. Annually, New Jersey’s workforce loses $18 million in wages and the state foregoes $1.6 million in tax revenue as detained immigrants are unable to show up to work.

Families lose wages, purchasing power and the ability to pay bills on time when a loved one is detained. They are also less able to provide for their children. According to the Center for Migration Studies, deportations increase foreclosure among Latinos by removing income earners from households.

Losing a bread-winner of the household to deportation will likely put many families – including an estimated 168,000 U.S. citizen children of undocumented immigrants in New Jersey – in vulnerable situations and will likely increase their demand for public assistance.[12]

In New Jersey, about 168,000 children have an undocumented parent. Approximately 128,000 of these children, or 78%, are U.S. citizens.[13] In addition, New Jersey has about 8,700 U.S. citizen children with parents who are going to lose their TPS status by 2020 making even more children vulnerable to losing a parent to deportation.[14] Nationally, an estimated 5,000 children are placed in foster care because a parent was detained or deported. Children whose parents are detained or deported are at higher risk of mental health issues and suffer from developmental delays.

Annually, detentions and deportations cost New Jersey approximately $732,000 in child health insurance costs and $203,000 in foster care for children of detained or deported parents. This annual monetary cost of nearly $1 million does not include the long-term costs associated with child trauma, development, and health conditions from deporting their parents.

New Jersey Loses When Immigrants Lack Legal Representation
New Jersey benefits from its diverse immigrant population, with the third highest share (22%) of immigrants nationally and half a million undocumented immigrants that contribute to the state’s social and economic fabric.

The Garden State has 34,232 main street businesses, and immigrants own 48.1% of them.[15] This is the highest percentage share of immigrant owned main street businesses aside from California. In all, almost 270,500 workers in New Jersey are employed at an immigrant-owned business. And immigrants or their children have founded 39% of the nineteen Fortune 500 companies based in New Jersey. These companies generate more than $133 billion in annual revenue and employ almost 600,000 people globally.[16]

But New Jersey’s immigrants aren’t just contributing as entrepreneurs and job creators. They are also paying taxes: more than $13.1 billion in federal taxes and $6.5 billion in state and local taxes each year. And every year, New Jersey’s immigrants are also contributing to our entitlement programs: $2 billion to Medicare (of which $179.4 million is paid by undocumented New Jerseyans) and more than $7 billion to Social Security (of which $695 million is paid by undocumented residents).[17]

If all of the Garden State’s undocumented immigrants were deported, the loss to New Jersey’s Gross Domestic Product, 4.9%, is the largest loss of any of the 50 states, topping immigrant-heavy states like California (4.7% loss), Texas (3% loss) and New York (3% loss), according to a 50-state analysis by the Center for American Progress. [18]

The forced removal of these striving immigrants would cause New Jersey to lose $25.9 billion in annual economic activity. While this is not the largest dollar loss of any state (California tops the list at $103 billion), it is the largest when taken in context of the size of a state’s economy.[19]

New Jersey’s workforce has the third-highest share of undocumented workers in the nation at 7.4%, behind California (10.2%) and Texas (8.7%). But the loss of these workers’ contributions would be more keenly felt by New Jersey’s economy, in large part because New Jersey’s undocumented workers’ contributions to the economy are more diverse and felt in many higher-paid industries.[20]

While families are ripped apart from each other at the border, New Jersey should send a clear message to the nation that it will do its part in keeping families together and ensure that all its residents receive due process including a fair day in immigration court.

Let’s remember that immigrants do not live separately from the rest of New Jersey residents. They are vitally entwined throughout New Jersey’s communities, assets to our state, and contributors to our culture, our economy and our prosperity. If universal representation becomes a reality in New Jersey, our state would join New York and six cities across the country in providing universal legal representation for low-income, detained immigrants. Having a universal representation program is a pro-family, pro-economy policy that lawmakers should support in order to continue New Jersey’s history as the golden door for immigrants. Universal representation would also maintain New Jersey’s status as a welcoming, inclusive state. 

Acknowledgments:
NJPP appreciates the feedback received from the following organizations: Make the Road NJ, ACLU, American Friends Service Committee, Fiscal Institute Policy, and the Center for Popular Democracy.


Endnotes

[1] The Center for Popular Democracy. New York Immigrant Family Unity Project – The Report, October 2013. Access to Justice: Ensuring Counsel for Immigrants Facing Deportation in the D.C. Metropolitan Area, April 2017. Vera Institute.Evaluation of the New York Immigrant Family Unity Project: Assessing the Impact of Legal Representation on Family and Community Unity, November 2017.

[2] Seton Hall Law School. Deportation Without Representation the Access-to-Justice Crisis Facing New Jersey’s Immigrant Families, June 2016.

[3] NJPP analysis of the data in the report: Deportation Without Representation the Access-to-Justice Crisis Facing New Jersey’s Immigrant Families. The EOIR data set consists of 3,868 cases and includes all removal cases in which an Immigration Judge (IJ) made a final case-related decision in the New Jersey Immigration Courts (Elizabeth and Newark) between February 1, 2014 and January 31, 2015.54 This data set includes only cases resolved in New Jersey and not cases that were transferred to other jurisdictions.

[4] Used data from Seton Hall Report and duplicated methodology used in The Center for Popular Democracy report, Access to Justice: Ensuring Counsel for Immigrants Facing Deportation in the D.C. Metropolitan Area. Consists of multiplying those detained by those below and above the federal poverty level, multiplying those by adult immigrants in the workforce. Then multiplying the annual salary of those in the combined food serve and preparation workers by 16%, which is the typical turnover costs for positions earning less than $ 30,000 annually. Also, multiplying the annual pay for “other services” by 19.7% the typical turnover costs for positions earning less than $50,000 annually.

[5] To calculate the average wage lost  per day we used partof Colorado Fiscal Institute’s calculations in their reportThe High Cost of Immigration Enforcement in Colorado, we multiplied the work days missed by the individuals wage divided by works days missed.  The work days missed was calculated using the average days detained in NJ (62 days) and the assumption that a person works 5 days a week. Out of the 62 days is 8 weeks and 6 days. Thus, we subtracted 62-17 to obtain the number of worked days missed. The median individual wage for a noncitizen working full time is $31,200 according ACS (2016 1-year sample). We multiplied the number of works days missed by the average daily salary times the number of detained in immigrants in FY 2017 We multiplied the amount of wages lost by 9 percent – that’s the percent of income paid in taxes by everyone up to the 80th percentile in NJ, according to Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Who Pays, 5t edition.

[6] Multiply estimated number of U.S. citizen Children of immigrants detained through their proceeding but deported by 57 percent of US-born and naturalized citizen children covered by employer or private coverage. Multiply that product by the annual average per-child cost to Children Health Insurance Program.

[7] The Star Ledger. ICE arrests surging in N.J. under Trump. Here’s why,February 2018.

[8] Ibid 2.

[9] Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. Legal Noncitizens Receive Longest ICE Detention, June 2013.

[10] National Immigration Forum. The Math of Immigration Detention, 2018 Update: Costs Continue to Multiply, 2018.

[11] Ibid 2.

[12] Migration Policy Institute. A Profile of U.S. Children with Unauthorized Immigrant Parents, January 2016.

[13] Ibid 12.

[14] Center for American Progress. Temporary Protected Status: State-by-state Factsheets on TPS May 2018.

[15] Analysis of the Fiscal Policy Institute unreleased data on immigrant business owners. 2016.

[16] New Jersey Policy Perspective. New Jersey’s Immigrants are a Huge Economic Driver, February 2017.

[17] Ibid 16.

[18] Ibid 16

[19] Ibid 16.

[20] Ibid 16.

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Revisiting the Notorious Nine: Key Decisions That Sent New Jersey’s Financial Health Spiraling

For more than two decades, all three branches of New Jersey’s state government have made short-sighted budgeting decisions that have severely damaged the state’s fiscal health and credit rating. This history is well documented and serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of imprudent fiscal stewardship.

In 2016, New Jersey Policy Perspective detailed New Jersey’s most egregious fiscal missteps in The Notorious Nine: How Key Decisions Sent New Jersey’s Financial Health Spiraling Over Two Decades. These blunders provide historical context for the state’s dire fiscal situation and act as a blueprint for what lawmakers should avoid in future budgets: one shot revenue gimmicks, new spending without corresponding new revenue, phantom spending cuts, and a consistent failure to pay for existing obligations.

With the fiscal year 2019 budget currently being debated, lawmakers must understand that continuing to make the mistakes of the past will only further harm New Jersey’s economic future.

Sustainable revenues and targeted investments are the only way forward to bring the state out of this deep hole. Following the path of one shot gimmicks and short term fixes will only widen New Jersey’s structural deficit and dig the hole even deeper.

Without sustainable sources of new revenue, such as the proposed “millionaires tax,” restoring the sales tax to 7%, reinstating the estate tax, and a corporate surcharge on high-earning corporations, New Jersey is doomed to continue down the path of political convenience and irresponsible financing. The lack of sufficient long-term resources will continue to starve the state’s ability to maintain and expand the public assets that give New Jersey its unrivaled advantages.

As the saying goes, those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Now is the time for New Jersey’s lawmakers to turn the page on a history of short-sighted gimmicks and underfunding of key assets. Now is the time for elected officials to show the political courage necessary to fix New Jersey’s finances by including sustainable, long-term revenue sources in this year’s budget.

Please revisit The Notorious Nine to learn the historical context of New Jersey’s budget and understand the decisions lawmakers must make to get the state back on solid footing. With proper action, we’ll be able to avoid a retrospective detailing the damage wrought by The Terrible Ten.


This report was originally released in September 2016. To read a PDF of this report, click here.

For more than four decades, policymakers scrupulously observed New Jersey’s constitutional requirements for balanced annual budgets, including prohibitions against long-term borrowing to pay for current needs. The result was a state that emerged from a gray industrial corridor into an economic powerhouse with a modernized transportation system, an expanded network of public colleges and universities, a million acres of preserved open space and a coveted AAA credit rating that kept borrowing costs low for long-term improvements.

Beginning in the 1990s New Jersey changed course, heading down a path of political convenience and irresponsible financing. Doing so has starved the capacity of state government to maintain and expand the assets that give New Jersey unrivaled economic advantages, threatening the state’s economic future.

Nine key decisions have driven this downward spiral. Both major political parties and all three government branches contributed to the failure. Behind each decision were two unstated assumptions: that policymakers can promise essential services without bothering to pay for them, and that future taxpayers should bear the burden for today’s spending even though they will not benefit from it. At the heart of this duplicity is the intentional, systematic and large-scale raid by governors and legislatures of both parties of the assets that had been set aside for the funding of pensions and retiree health benefits for hundreds of thousands of public employees. The New Jersey Supreme Court abetted this massive, fraudulent raid.

These decisions have contributed to the hollowing out of New Jersey’s middle- and working-class families. Property tax relief declined significantly, while property taxes continued their rise. The cost of a public college education rose dramatically as state operating support tumbled, leading to higher tuitions and higher student debt.

The result is that New Jersey’s future as an economic powerhouse with abundant opportunities is in peril. The assets that help build New Jersey’s strong economy – like its location, transportation networks, well-educated workforce, growing population of striving immigrants and excellent public schools – are being neglected, ignored or even savaged.

We need to be clear about the origins of New Jersey’s tailspin, and it is not, as we’re constantly told, high tax rates. In fact, New Jersey’s desperate economic and financial condition is a product of leaders postponing or simply evading their constitutional responsibilities.

There is no simple, easy solution and no one should expect that in any one governor’s tenure New Jersey can fully correct two decades of reckless financial practice or make all the public investments essential to restore prosperity. However, if policymakers persist with politically convenient gimmicks and policies, New Jersey’s condition will only worsen. Acknowledging the origin and magnitude of the state’s decline would be a courageous start – but only a start.

1. 1994-1996: Significant Income Tax Cuts Lead to Large Property Tax Increases

Despite decades of politicians’ promises to fix the problem, New Jersey has the nation’s highest property taxes. The 2014 median tax bill of $7,452 per year was far ahead of second place Connecticut ($5,369) and the national average ($2,139).[1] So, when New Jersey’s income tax was enacted in 1976, a state constitutional amendment guaranteed that every penny collected would relieve residential property taxpayers. The income tax is a fairer tax, tied to ability to pay: Those with higher incomes pay a larger share of their income than middle-class or low-income residents. Unlike the property tax, if one’s income declines, so does her tax bill.

Gov. Whitman won the 1993 gubernatorial election, in part, on her promise to cut the income tax; a 30 percent income tax cut was phased in over three years beginning in 1994.[2] The financial impact was huge. New Jersey lost about $14 billion in revenue in the first 10 years, reducing the amount of money available for property tax relief.[3]

Bottom line: Gov. Whitman’s tax cuts greatly reduced the funds available to assist local governments and schools and shortchanged property tax relief programs for senior citizens, veterans, the disabled and moderate- and low-income homeowners and renters.

2. 1994 Pension Changes Shift Current Costs to Future Taxpayers

To help plug the budget hole created in part by the income tax cut, the Whitman administration reduced the contributions of state and local governments to the state pension system by $3.5 billion over four years.[4] As of 1993, these assets were more than sufficient to cover the current and future obligations for both pensions and retiree health benefits for state and local public employees. Just three years following enactment of the Pension Reform Act, pensions’ unfunded liabilities multiplied more than five-fold, to $4.2 billion from $800 million.

This sharp break with conservative financial practices started the failure of all three branches of state government to make promised pensions secure at the same time they compounded the problem by increasing future pension benefits without finding the money to pay for them.

In essence this was accomplished by back-loading the pension system. New Jersey reduced the amount of money it invested for current and future pension payments, and changed the rules so the state would have 60 years to catch up with its earlier underfunding rather than 40 years.[5] This meant that the state could contribute far less each year through the 1990s and early 2000s, but would have to pay more and more in later years just to catch up.

This steady stream of pension payment “holidays” for state and local governments had consequences. While public employees paid in every penny required, new laws lowered their annual payments. This contributed to a growing unfunded liability. But far worse was that governors and legislatures failed to appropriate the full employer payment each year beginning in 1994, passing the financial obligations to future governors, legislatures and taxpayers. The amounts now required are staggering, particularly given the state’s slow crawl out of the Great Recession. Time is running out. As it stands now, within 11 years the state won’t have the money it owes to retired teachers. The timeline is even tighter for other civil servants – eight years.[6]

Since pension fund accounts are large pots of money that aren’t due to be spent right away it’s not surprising that they also became attractive ATMs for political leaders who wanted to increase spending without providing the revenues to pay for it. And like mammoth Alaskan glaciers that slowly recede as average temperatures begin to rise, with only a few scientists noticing, it took a while for the impact of pension fund raids to be seen. After a while, though, study commissions and Wall Street credit rating agencies sent out clear warnings that this dangerous practice jeopardized the state’s ability to pay retirees what they would be due. Unfortunately, it was a relatively low-profile issue. No one’s re-election was threatened by their short-term but reckless decisions. And like the melting glaciers that are helping to raise sea levels that endanger coastal areas, by the time the obligations for spectacularly large annual payments were acknowledged, the shortfall was too large to be addressed absent radical, punishing actions.

Adding to the increased risk, the assumed rate of return on pension assets had been increased two years earlier from 7 percent to an aggressive 8.75 percent.[7] Assuming more aggressive returns on investments meant that less money had to be set aside today.

Made at a time when the stock market was entering a bullish period, the Whitman administration cited recent gains as proof that it was prudent to expect higher investment returns and to reduce payments accordingly. But, of course, markets rise and markets fall. For example, in the 10 years ending in 2012, the average public pension fund rose by 6.4 percent a year; even the best-performing funds rose by just 8.1 percent.[8] By assuming such a high rate of return, successive administrations were able to reduce their contributions while falsely “guaranteeing” that current and future pensions were secure.

But the gains were temporary, and the math didn’t work. Twenty years later the unfunded liability – the amount not available to make guaranteed pension payments – had grown 17-fold to a whopping $80 billion.

Bottom line: The switch in methodology and changed assumptions led to reduced contributions by New Jersey state and local governments, growing the gap between assets required for future payments to $4.7 billion in 1995 from $800 million in 1993.[9] What is worse is that annual employer contributions were held down for more than 15 years, presenting today’s taxpayers with a bill that is impossible to pay. All this means that even if the state contributes the full annual required payment as revised in 1994, the pension fund assets will never be adequate to pay the pension obligations. 

3. 1994 Retiree Health Benefits Fund Raid and Conversion Frees Up Cash for the Tax Cut But Puts Health Benefits on Shaky Foundation

Until 1994, retiree health benefits were funded much like pensions – through employer contributions and the compounded returns from investing those contributions in stocks, bonds and other assets. The 1994 law that shifted pension costs to future taxpayers also switched retiree health benefits, requiring the state to put into each year’s budget the amount needed to pay benefits for current retirees. Obviously, as the number of retirees grew, so would the cost to the state.

Making this switch allowed the Whitman administration to empty the $300 million fund that had been built up to pay for these future benefits and – because relatively few retirees were eligible for health benefits – to pay far less each year. Both of these helped plug the budget hole that was created, in part, by the 30 percent income tax cut.[10]

By shifting future costs of retiree health benefits to future taxpayers and raiding the assets in place, Gov. Whitman reduced their costs in her first-term budgets by almost $1 billion.

Health benefits that retired public employees earn after their years of service are no different than pensions, in that they are obligations for which assets should be invested to cover agreed-to payments. The 1994 changes resulted in billions of dollars not being invested that led to the unfunded liability exploding: A $2.3 billion hole in 1994[11] has grown about 29 times larger to where, today, the unfunded liability sits at $65 billion.[12]

Bottom line: Zero dollars are available from investments that were never made after 1994 and the state is on the hook for $65 billion in benefits that must be paid from the general fund at the expense of services vital to New Jersey. In 2016, the payment for both active employees and retiree health benefits was $3.3 billion or 9.7 percent of the state budget.[13] In 1995, it was 3 percent of the budget.

4. Facing Growing Pension Hole in 1997, New Jersey Turns to Reckless Borrowing

The consequences of these major changes to New Jersey’s pension system quickly became apparent, leading to an even more radical proposal. Seeking to tame rapidly growing unfunded liabilities without having to dramatically increase the state’s annual contribution to the pension funds, Gov. Whitman turned to Wall Street, borrowing $2.8 billion in the form of a bond to reduce a liability that had been largely created by the 1994 changes. This was the first time any state borrowed money on that scale to cover a pension liability (a record that lasted until 2003, when Illinois borrowed $10 billion).[14] Now New Jersey could cover more of what it owed over just three years, and pass the very large bill of $10.3 billion to future taxpayers for 31 years.[15]

State and local government employers were allowed to skip required pension payments, their share being partly made up by the money borrowed from Wall Street. The idea was for New Jersey to use the bond proceeds, plus the assumed investment gains from the pension system, to eliminate most of the $4.2 billion unfunded liability.

But it was a ticking time bomb. Sixteen years later, New Jersey taxpayers still owe $2.3 billion of the $2.8 billion borrowed – with interest on top – and annual payments are scheduled to approach $500 million annually by 2020.

The pension obligation bond is three times larger than the next largest borrowing in New Jersey’s history.[16] It also has the most expensive payback, because it carries a permanent interest rate of 7.65 percent and, unlike all other bonds issued by the state, cannot be refinanced to take advantage of lower interest rates. Most importantly, while other bond issues produced tangible products with long-lasting benefits such as roads, sewers or parks, the pension bond produced nothing of lasting value – only a very expensive IOU.

The consequences were immediate and negative. Legislation accompanying the bond act authorized yet another pension payment holiday. From mid-1999 to mid-2006, the state paid in, on average each year, just 4 percent of what was required to keep the pension system healthy (about $23 million a year instead of $600 million).[17] Local governments were given a total or partial contribution holiday over the same period. The $2.8 billion from the pension bond was much too little to meet the payments required over seven years or to fully erase the unfunded liability zooming upward as a result of 1994’s pension changes.

Gov. Whitman told New Jerseyans this borrowing would lower taxes, relieve long-term debt and guarantee the long-term health of the pension fund – while saving taxpayers about $45 billion over 60 years.[18] She asserted that borrowing to pay for pensions was just like a home mortgage, but forgot to mention that one could sell their home to pay off the mortgage after having years of shelter.[19] Pension debt left nothing to sell and no tangible asset. And her administration suggested it came with virtually no risk, “even if there were an economic slowdown.”[20]

In fact, this turned out to be wishful thinking. The stock market boom soon collapsed with the puncturing of the tech bubble. From the end of 2000 through 2003, the assets in the pension funds crashed by 25.3 percent, wiping out $21.7 billion.[21] This reversed the gains from the state’s heavy investments in technology stocks and left the pension funds with a greatly reduced asset base. The end result: billions in future payments were left to taxpayers to both repay the bonds and make up for the assets lost for investment returns.

Bottom line: This year, taxpayers will pay $348.6 million to repay bondholders for covering the employer’s pension costs due in 1997 and 1998 at an interest rate of 7.65 percent.[22] That is stunning by today’s interest rates. The total bill over 31 years will be $10.3 billion.[23] For all that, there is no essential product – no highway, rail line or university facility – to show for it.

5. The New Jersey Supreme Court Opens the Floodgates to More Bad Borrowing

Edison Mayor George Spadoro immediately challenged the pension obligation bond in court, arguing that the New Jersey Constitution prevents the state from going into debt without voter approval except in emergency situations. This offered the Supreme Court the opportunity to prevent an almost doubling in New Jersey’s debt in one day, not a penny of which would be invested in highways, public transit, research facilities or open space – the sole uses of previous bond sales. The Court passed up the opportunity.

Under what is called the Constitution’s Debt Limitation Clause, the legislature is not allowed to create new debt that binds future legislatures without approval by public referendum. The Appropriations Clause prohibits the legislature from making any appropriations of the state’s revenues beyond a given fiscal year or counting borrowed funds as “revenues.”[24] Yet, over the years, the courts had interpreted these clauses in a number of cases to allow the state to take on debt for toll roads, state office buildings and sports stadiums without going through the voters, primarily because a solid stream of dedicated revenues was identified to repay the debts and the state was not on the hook formally to repay the debt.

A New Jersey Superior Court judge turned Spadoro’s challenge away, ruling that the bonds did not create any debt binding future legislatures because they were issued by the Economic Development Authority, an “independent” state authority. A divided appellate panel upheld this decision days later.

These decisions were based on three questionable assumptions: That the EDA is “independent,” that the EDA’s funding was separate from the state’s general fund and that there was no distinction between bonds issued for capital projects and those issued for the “ordinary” functions of government, such as making employer contributions to the pension funds.[25]

The New Jersey Supreme Court quickly announced the controversy moot as the plaintiff had filed his appeal after the bonds had been sold (only 20 days passed between the law’s enactment and the bond sale). Because the transaction could not be “undone” even if the Court found in Spadoro’s favor, the Court refused to act on the appeal. Justice Alan Handler, one of the two Justices to file a partial dissent, believed the Bond Act violated the Constitution’s Debt Limitation Clause. He did not mince words:

“The apparent assumption underlying the [Pension Obligation] Bond Act is that the restrictions of the Debt Limitation Clause may be avoided merely by … substituting an independent authority … as the issuer of debt, even though the authority has no genuine independence,” he wrote. “Under no circumstances should [the Debt Limitation Clause] be deflated or read out of the Constitution as a mere nuisance provision that serves no purpose except to define an administrative procedure for selling debt.”[26]

Before the 1997 Supreme Court decision, voters had approved almost half of the state’s total debt ($3.8 billion of $8.1 billion). Ten years later, New Jersey’s debt had ballooned to $32 billion with just 10 percent of it ($3.1 billion) having been approved by voters.[27]

Bottom line: With the pension bond decision, the New Jersey Supreme Court opened the floodgates for an unprecedented run-up in debt without public approval, which accelerated the deterioration of the state’s financial stability.

6. Pension Benefits are Increased Without the Means to Pay for Them

In the early 2000s, the combination of the state Supreme Court’s decision, successive governors and legislatures that failed to provide the revenues to meet pension obligations and a run-up in the stock market created a new culture of financial irresponsibility in Trenton.

Acting Gov. DiFrancesco, who took over when Gov. Whitman resigned to become the administrator of the federal Environmental Protection Agency, increased pension benefits in 2001 by 9 percent for current and future retired teachers and other civil servants, and simultaneously reduced employee contributions by one-third.[28] The pension increase applied to all active public-sector workers and current retirees, even though those retirees had contributed nothing to the increase. The move was more popular than it was prudent. For one thing, it was built on the premise of a strong stock market that had already begun a significant decline.

To pay for these changes, the governor and lawmakers created their own time machine and their own actuarial rules. Since markets were beginning to decline as the dot-com boom was punctured, the bill reached back for the market value of pension assets two years earlier on June 30, 1999. The governor and legislators decided to capture the difference between the pension fund’s market value on that date and the value that actuaries reported, which was $5.3 billion lower for the teacher pension fund alone.[29] Actuaries are careful to smooth out the volatility in markets by typically taking a three-year average of the market value of assets, hence the $5.3 billion difference. The state carved out a separate “Benefit Enhancement Fund” for each of the two largest pension funds that were to be funded from the inflated and historical market values to pay for the newly increased benefits.[30] If these enhancement funds turned out to be inadequate to cover the increased pension payments, the statute required the state to make up the difference with larger annual appropriations. It turned out that the funds were inadequate, but the significant increased appropriation requirement was ignored year after year.

There was another problem. Between June 1999 and the time the bill was signed into law in 2001, the pension assets had already declined by $4.2 billion as the stock market moved downward.[31] This meant that the difference between actual and actuarial asset calculations had shrunk significantly, but that in no way was reflected in the fictional values assigned to the benefit enhancement funds.

This legislation may have been politically popular, but it accelerated New Jersey’s financial deterioration. It also earned New Jersey the dubious distinction of becoming the first state ever charged with violating federal securities laws.

In 2010, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged New Jersey with fraudulent misrepresentation in its disclosure statements to sell $26 billion in bonds that followed enactment of the 2001 law.[32] The SEC charged, and New Jersey agreed, that the state falsely asserted it made required payments, disguising the underfunding of its two largest pension funds. “The state’s bond offering documents lacked sufficient information for investors to understand the state’s historical failure – since 1997 – to contribute [to the funds],” the SEC noted.[33]

Among the SEC findings:

  • The New Jersey Office of Legislative Services’ fiscal note that was issued two weeks after the law was signed documented that had the most recent quarterly valuation of assets been used, it would have shown a decline of $2.4 billion.
  • The statutory revaluation “created the false appearance that the plans were ‘fully funded’ and allowed the State to justify not making contributions … despite the fact that the market values of the plans’ assets were rapidly declining.”[34]
  • Starting in 1997, New Jersey consistently ignored actuaries’ calculations for employer contributions, instead treating withheld payments as “savings” to be used elsewhere.[35]
  • The state recycled funds between the Benefit Enhancement Funds and supposed reserve funds, creating “the false appearance that the State was making contributions to [the pension funds], when no actual contributions were being made.”[36]

Bottom line: In an unorthodox action, New Jersey granted a 9 percent increase in pension benefits that was funded by capturing asset values posted on one day two years earlier and using that value to claim that payments would be made for the increased benefits. New Jersey earned the distinction of becoming the first state to be charged with fraudulent misrepresentation by the SEC.

7. Long-Term Borrowing to Plug Short-Term Budget Holes Ramps Up

Between a 52 percent overall spending increase in the eight Whitman-DiFrancesco years, the bursting of the dot-com bubble with its trailing recession and the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, New Jersey faced a $5.3 billion shortfall in the budgets for fiscal years 2002 and 2003. Gov. McGreevey, like his two immediate predecessors, borrowed to cover operating expenses. To start, his administration used proceeds from the recent tobacco settlement to help reduce the state budget deficit.

In November 1998, attorneys general from 46 states settled their lawsuits against the tobacco industry for smoking-related health care costs that landed on the states’ doorsteps. The agreement required tobacco companies to make payments to the plaintiff states estimated at $206 billion over 25 years.

New Jersey found an innovative way to spend the tobacco money without having to wait 25 years. Like a handful of other financially distressed states, New Jersey sold bonds to plug budget holes, pledging to repay this borrowing over 12 years out of the yearly proceeds from the tobacco settlement. This “tobacco securitization” granted the bondholders some or all of the revenue from the tobacco settlement to cover the repayments. By foregoing a steady stream of revenue 12 years into the future, Gov. McGreevey was able to generate $3.4 billion to help balance two budgets.

If that sounds risky, that’s because it is.

Because future administrations and taxpayers would be deprived of those revenues while significantly increasing the state’s debt burden, New Jersey received downgrades in its credit ratings from the three major credit rating agencies.

Once again, the New Jersey Supreme Court had the chance to affirm the Debt Limitation Clause in a challenge by Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan to the tobacco securitization and other “contract bonds.” And once again, it chose not to “disrupt the state’s financing mechanisms,” ruling “that the restrictions of the Debt Limitation Clause do not apply to appropriations-backed debt.”[37]

The McGreevey administration was not done borrowing long-term to meet annual budget shortfalls. Faced with another potential deficit in the 2005 budget, Gov. McGreevey increased corporate business tax rates and when it was clear that the higher revenues wouldn’t fill the gap, his administration swapped the future revenues from a tax increase on cigarettes and new driver fees for a one-time infusion of cash from a bond sale to help balance the budget.

The new bond sales helped plug the hole by raising an estimated $1.9 billion for the 2005 budget.[38] But instead of the new revenues (estimated at $185 million per year)[39] going into the general fund to support higher education, Medicaid or other priorities, it would go exclusively to bond buyers for 24 to 30 years.

Just days before Gov. McGreevey was to sign the budget, Republican legislators led by Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance sued to halt the sale of the bonds. They objected to borrowing to balance the budget, but without specifying the budget cuts they would make to avoid the borrowing. Such a scheme would be a burden on future legislators, governors and taxpayers, they argued, and may violate the Constitution’s Debt Limitation and Appropriation Clauses.

A Superior Court Judge ruled that the state could proceed because it had designated two new sources of revenue to cover the bond repayments. The matter was quickly brought to the Supreme Court, which was presented with a fourth opportunity to enforce the Constitution’s Debt Limitation Clause.

Bottom line: Liberated by earlier Supreme Court rulings, Gov. McGreevey executed two “securitization” deals that used long-term debt of $5.3 billion to help balance three budgets.

8. The New Jersey Supreme Court Keeps Blessing Dangerous Financial Practices – Until it is Too Late

The state Supreme Court wasn’t done unwinding the force of conservative constitutional financial mandates with its failure to take up the pension obligation bond. Twice before the case on Gov. McGreevey’s borrowings was heard, the Court was given clear chances to reaffirm the strict boundaries of the clause and twice it passed.

Faced with a 2002 case challenging the issuance of “appropriation” and “contract” bonds, which relied entirely on the good faith that future legislatures would appropriate whatever funds were required for repayment, the Court set aside the question with the exception of bonds to build schools in the 31 Abbott districts (that the Court had ordered in 1995 to receive 100 percent funding for facilities) and to cover up to 40 percent of non-Abbott district capital projects. Effectively, the Court ruled that the Debt Limitation Clause was trumped by the requirement that all children are entitled to a “thorough and efficient” education that includes adequate facilities.[40]

The Court’s decision to protect funding for school facilities was built on a foundation of sand. First, it asserted that school construction bonds were not an obligation of the state, but of the Economic Development Authority, and that bond buyers and credit agencies therefore would not expect the same security as a voter-approved general obligation bond. Second, it assumed that the meager assets of the Fund for the Support of Free Public Schools – which stood at about $100 million – would be sufficient to guarantee repayment of the $2.6 billion in bonds to cover the non-Abbott districts.[41]

Meanwhile, the Court ordered a new hearing on other contract bonds like those issued by the Transportation Trust Fund. A year later a closely-divided Court decided to uphold the surge in appropriation and contract bonds, declaring that when the state was “highly likely” or “obligated” to repay them, it did not fall within the boundaries of the Debt Limitation Clause, even without a dedicated source of revenue.[42]

While the Court failed to halt the surge in contract or appropriation bonds for purposes ranging from school construction to football stadiums to transportation, in the Lance case it finally drew a line on borrowing long-term solely for the purposes of balancing the annual budget.

New Jersey’s Supreme Court overruled the Superior Court opinion, calling the McGreevey bond sale unconstitutional and banning the state from borrowing money to balance the budget – but not until the following fiscal year. “Disruption to the state government,” said the Court majority, overrode the Constitution.[43] This allowed Gov. McGreevey to sell the bonds while protecting all earlier bonds that employed the same device that it now ruled as unconstitutional.

Specifically, the Court rightly found that contract bond proceeds used to fund general expenses in the state budget did not constitute “revenue” and could not be used to balance the budget. However, because the Court had previously ruled otherwise, the holding was applied only to future budgets because aborting the bond sale would have required significant revisions to, if not a complete overhaul of, the 2005 budget.

Bottom line: After seven years and four decisions, the New Jersey Supreme Court finally decided that the Debt Limitation Clause means debt cannot be issued to help balance annual budgets unless approved by public referendum. “Likely appropriations” are no longer a sufficient basis to evade the clause – except in this one case (and all preceding cases).

9. Money for Long-Term Improvement of Key New Jersey Asset Grabbed to Cover Current Costs

Gov. Christie in 2010 withdrew New Jersey’s support for an additional rail tunnel between New Jersey with Manhattan, directing the Port Authority to allocate funds committed to the “Access the Region’s Core” (ARC) tunnel to be redirected to highway and bridge projects in North Jersey. The move allowed the governor to delay addressing the looming Transportation Trust Fund crisis.

That decision compromised New Jersey’s most important economic asset: its location in the middle of the world’s largest market with convenient access to New York City and Philadelphia. No competing state can replicate this advantage, which only works if an efficient transportation network is in place to move people and goods.

The ARC project would have created a more convenient and reliable commute by building a two-track rail tunnel between New Jersey and Manhattan and a new NJ Transit rail terminal in midtown Manhattan, enabling NJ Transit to at least double the number of rush-hour trains.

The ARC cancellation enabled the Christie administration to direct the Port Authority to shift the tunnel money to other projects, in the process avoiding a much-needed increase in New Jersey gasoline taxes to finance transportation projects. The $1.3 billion in ARC funds reallocated to highway and bridge projects in North Jersey meant the governor could ignore the pending bankruptcy of New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund, which pays for capital road, bridge and transit projects around the state and which ran out of money for new projects this summer.

By canceling the ARC project, New Jersey gave up at least $3 billion in federal aid and missed an enormous economic opportunity. It would have created thousands of jobs just as New Jersey was starting to crawl out of the Great Recession and substantially increased property values in towns with train service to New York (and, thus, property tax revenues). It would have encouraged new developments near train stations that would have boosted the economy and significantly reduced the number of polluting cars on the road. Moreover, the Port Authority and New Jersey could have locked-in historically low interest rates that would have saved tens of millions in bond repayments in the future.

Amtrak has since proposed its Gateway tunnel project to replace ARC, but it is still in the planning stage. Once approved, its earliest completion date is 2030, 12 years later than the projected completion date of the ARC project. The realization of this project will still require a significant contribution from New Jersey. Gov. Christie has now endorsed the Gateway project and approved the Port Authority’s participation.

Bottom Line: New Jersey’s greatest economic asset – its location – has been severely diluted by the ARC cancellation. The draw of diverse residential communities with some of the nation’s best public schools and easy access to New York will dwindle once commuter rail service is sharply reduced with the pending shutdown of single-track tunnels for unavoidable repairs.


Endnotes

[1] U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Mortgage Status by Median Real Estate Taxes Paid.

[2] Disclaimer: Co-author MacInnes was one of four legislators to vote against all three tax-cut bills.

[3] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Was It Worth It? Looking Back on a Decade of Income Tax Cuts, March 2005, p.1.

[4] Plansponsor Magazine, Whitman’s Bruising POB Fight: The New Jersey Governor Pushed Through a Record $2.75 Billion Issue, Only to Face a Lawsuit and a New Issue For Her Next Reelection Campaign, September 1997.

[5] New York Times, Whitman’s Borrowing Plan: Criticism May Not Go Away, June 1997.

[6] Moody’s Investors Service, Issuer Comment: New Jersey (State of): New Jersey Reports Surge in Unfunded Liabilities Under New Pension Accounting Rule, December 2014.

[7] State of New Jersey Benefits Review Task Force, Report of the Benefits Review Task Force to Acting Governor Richard J. Codey, December 2005, p.10

[8] Cliffwater, LLC, 2013 Report on State Pension Performance and Trends, July 2013.

[9] Barbara and Stephen Salmore, New Jersey Politics and Government: 4th Edition, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press, 2013, p. 206

[10] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Take the Money & Run: How Fiscal Policy From the ‘90s to Now Threatens New Jersey’s Future, 2001, p. 31

[11] Ibid 10, p. 30

[12] Politico New Jersey, Fitch Reaffirms State’s Credit Rating, But Unfunded Liability Still Concerning, March 2016.

[13] New Jersey Department of Treasury, Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 2016, p. 10

[14] Pro Publica and Washington Post, How Illinois’ Pension Debt Blew Up Chicago’s Credit, May 2015.

[15] State of New Jersey, New Jersey Comprehensive Annual Financial Report,Fiscal Year 1997, p. 9

[16] The 2000 bond sale by the Transportation Trust Fund comes in second, at $900 million.

[17] New York Times, Behind Fraud Charges, New Jersey’s Deep Crisis, August 2010.

[18] Fortune Magazine, The Public Pension Bomb, May 2009.

[19] New Jersey Department of Treasury, Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 1998. p.47

[20] Tom Bryan, The New Jersey Pension System, p. 350 in Pensions in the Public Sector, edited by Olivia S. Mitchell and Edwin Hustead, University of Pennsylvania Press, 2001.

[21] Ibid 7, p.10

[22] State of New Jersey, Annual Debt Report, Fiscal Year 2014, p.21

[23] Ibid 15

[24] N.J. Const. art. VIII, § 2

[25] Spadoro v. Whitman, 150 N.J. 2 (1997) 695 A.2d 654 at 11

[26] Ibid 25 at 13

[27] New York Times, Corzine’s New Equation: Tolls Up, Borrowing Down, November 2007.

[28] P.L. 2001, c. 133

[29] The New York Times, N.J. Pension Fund Endangered by Diverted Billions, April 2007.

[30] Philadelphia Inquirer, Since 1992, Governors Have Been Shortchanging N.J. Pension Fund, September 2010.

[31] Ibid 7, p.11

[32] State of New Jersey, Exchange Act Release No. 9135, 2010 WL 3260860 (Aug. 18, 2010) [hereinafter Exchange Act Release No. 9135]

[33] Exchange Act Release No. 9135, p.11 of Consent Decree (emphasis added)

[34] Ibid 33 p.7

[35] Ibid 33, p.8

[36] Ibid 33, p.9 (emphasis added)

[37] Lonegan II v. State of New Jersey, 819 A.2d 395 (2003) 176 N.J. 2

[38] State of New Jersey, New Jersey Comprehensive Annual Financial Report, Fiscal Year 2005, p.20

[39] New Jersey Department of Treasury, Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 2005, p.29

[40] Lonegan I v. State of New Jersey,174 N.J. 435, 809 A.2d 91 at 106

[41] Ibid 40 at 106

[42] Lonegan v. State of New Jersey, 176 N.J. 2, 19 (2003) at 406

[43] Lance v. McGreevey, 180 N.J. 590 (2004) at 861

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Fast Facts: Proposed Tax Changes Would Bring More Balance to New Jersey’s Tax Code

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


The tax changes proposed in Gov. Murphy’s first budget would bring more balance to New Jersey’s tax code by raising taxes on the wealthiest one percent while reducing them for the lowest-income New Jerseyans.[1] Updating the tax code would also raise nearly $2 billion in new revenue for targeted investments in early education, public transit, health care and other essential public services.

The effect of the Murphy plan is based on the following tax policy proposals:[2]

  • An income tax increase on annual earnings of $1 million or more by implementing a tax rate of 10.75 percent
  • The restoration of New Jersey’s sales tax to 7 percent
  • The closing of tax loopholes used by multi-state corporations by implementing “combined reporting”
  • An increase of the EITC from 35 percent to 40 percent phased-in over 3 years
  • An increase in the state property tax deduction from $10,000 to $15,000 for over half a million homeowners
  • A new child and dependent care tax credit for families with annual incomes of less than $60,000

These targeted tax changes would bring greater balance to the state’s tax code by giving working families in the bottom 20 percent a much-needed tax break and ensuring that the wealthiest New Jerseyans are paying their share. The overall effect would be a tax code that more accurately reflects one’s ability to pay.

The proposed new marginal gross income tax rate on incomes over $1 million was popular with legislators during the Christie administration, as it was passed five times by both houses of the legislature and vetoed each time. Now, after recent changes to the federal tax code, some legislators fear that this is not the right time to raise state income taxes on those earning $1 million or more a year. These fears are unfounded: New Jersey’s top one-percent of taxpayers still receive a net tax cut when combining the effects of the recent federal tax overhaul and Gov. Murphy’s proposed tax changes.

According to a side-by-side analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and Gov. Murphy’s plan, the top one percent of taxpayers – those earning over $924,000 a year and with an average annual income of about $2.5 million – would still come out ahead. That’s because their average tax break from the federal tax law is slightly larger than their average tax increase at the state level. Some of these wealthy households may experience a slight tax increase depending on their specific circumstances, but as a whole, the top one percent would not be burdened under Gov. Murphy’s tax plan. In fact, they would see little to no change to their overall tax bill, while New Jersey’s most important assets would see a much-needed boost in funding.

The lion’s share of income growth over the past decade has gone to New Jersey’s wealthiest taxpayers, yet the state and local tax code stillrequires low- and middle-income households to pay greater shares of their incomes in taxes than their wealthier neighbors. Gov. Murphy’s tax plan addresses the upside-down nature of the state’s tax code while raising the revenue needed to give all New Jerseyans a better opportunity to thrive – and, given the federal tax windfall to the wealthiest households who did nothing to earn it, lawmakers should feel confident in enacting a more equitable tax code here in the Garden State. The alternative would either be draconian cuts to public services or more reliance on taxes and fees that disproportionately fall on low- and middle-income families. Each of those options only leads to a more difficult and uncertain economic future for New Jersey families.

 


Endnotes

[1] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) Microsimulation Tax Model, May 2018.

[2] These data do not include a “federal deduction offset” figure as appears in Who Pays and other ITEP reports because under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the federal deduction for state and local taxes is limited to $10,000 and will predominantly affect only a relatively small group of high-income itemizers, most of whom will likely have enough tax payments to exceed the $10,000 cap. Because the availability of a deduction will be narrowed – and it will no longer vary significantly in proportion to state and local taxes paid – it does not function as a generalized offset of those taxes.

 

“American Health Care Act” Would Have Been a Disaster for New Jersey

To read a PDF version of this report, click here


May 4th marks a day of infamy in New Jersey and nationally, for it was on that day that Congress passed the American Health Care Act of 2017 in an attempt to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act.

The stakes were particularly high for New Jersey because about 800,000 New Jerseyans – nearly 10 percent of the state’s population – obtained their health coverage through the ACA, either in the private individual marketplace or though the Medicaid expansion. Enactment of this bill would have caused irreparable harm to the state’s health, budget and economy.

To the credit of the New Jersey Congressional Delegation, 10 of the 12 members voted against it, including three of the five Republican members. While that was not enough to prevent passage in the House, the bill fortunately failed in the Senate. Here is what would have happened in New Jersey if this regressive bill had become law:1

Over Half a Million New Jerseyans Would Have Lost Health Coverage

  • 540,000 New Jersey residents would have become uninsured.
  • The uninsurance rate would have spiked by 50 percent (from 9.8% in 2016 to 14.7% by 2026).
  • The newly uninsured would have consisted of an equal number of New Jerseyans who had insurance in Medicaid or the Marketplace.

The Uninsured Would Have Spiked in All Congressional Districts

  • Tens of thousands of residents would have lost health coverage in all Congressional districts (see table).
  • Districts represented by Republicans would have seen a larger average percentage increase in the number of uninsured than districts represented by Democrats.

One in 10 New Jersey Adults Would Have Lost Coverage Due to the Effective End of the Medicaid Expansion

  • Enrollment would have likely fallen from 562,000 adults to 6,000 by 2027.
  • Eliminating the federal matching rate of 90 percent would have meant that New Jersey could not afford to maintain the Medicaid expansion.
  • New Jersey would have lost about $21 billion in federal funds for the Medicaid expansion over 7 years.
  • State costs for charity care would have increased by the hundreds of millions.

A Permanent Cap on Federal Medicaid Funds Would Have Threatened the Health of 1.6 Million Vulnerable New Jerseyans

  • The cap would have harmed everyone on Medicaid but especially seniors and people with disabilities because they represent about three quarters of Medicaid funding.
  • The already very low reimbursement rates to providers would have been reduced even lower which would have sharply limited access to critical medical care.

Premiums for New Jerseyans With Preexisting Conditions Could Have BecomeUnaffordable

  • Premium tax credits would be reduced by $7 billion in New Jersey over 10 years.
  • Instead of a share of a person’s income, premium credits would have been based on age.
  • Older New Jerseyans would have been hit with up to an 800% increase in the cost for their insurance, making it unaffordable for most of them.
  • Due to New Jersey’s own Congressman Tom MacArthur’s amendment, states would have been allowed to greatly increase premiums based on pre-existing conditions and eliminate essential benefits like hospitalization, maternity care and mental health or substance abuse treatment.

New Jersey’s Economy Would Have Been Disrupted and Thousands of Jobs Lost

  • New Jersey would have lost about $4.8 billion annually in federal funds which would have led to a $6.6 billion loss in economic activity and 54,000 jobs.

 


Endnotes

[1] For sources to all data, see Raymond Castro, House-Passed Health Bill Would End Coverage for More Than Half a Million New Jerseyans, New Jersey Policy Perspective, June 2017, https://www.njpp.org/healthcare/house-passed-health-bill-would-end-coverage-for-more-than-half-a-million-new-jerseyans

Fast Facts: Bold State Tax Reforms Would Boost New Jersey’s Economy, Create Jobs

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


There are many compelling reasons for New Jersey policymakers to advance a bold agenda for tax reform in 2018. They’d be making the state’s tax code fairer while raising new revenues for the state to pay for public services, help those in need and invest in the shared building blocks of a strong economy. They’d be reversing years of tax-cutting that has mostly benefited the state’s wealthiest families and made the tax code even more upside down. And last but not least, they’d be boosting the state economy and creating jobs.

In fact, enacting a bold tax reform agenda and using that new money to reinvest in New Jersey would boost the economy by $2.9 billion by 2022, increasing personal income by $2.4 billion and creating over 35,000 new jobs. (For details on the methodology, see Appendix.)

These economic boosts are based on the following policy changes and assume that all are enacted in 2018.

Revenue raisers:

  • Increasing the income tax on the wealthiest 5 percent of New Jersey households. By adding four brackets to the state’s income tax and increasing rates on these well-off households, lawmakers would raise more than $1 billion in new revenue each year.[1]
  • Restoring the sales tax to 7 percent. By reversing 2016’s third-of-a-penny cut to the state sales tax – a cut that most New Jersey families say hasn’t helped them at all[2] – lawmakers would raise about $600 million in new revenue each year.[3]
  • Closing corporate tax loopholes by enacting “combined reporting.” By following the lead of the majority of states with corporate taxation and ending the ability of multistate corporations to artificially shift profits out of New Jersey to lower- or no-tax states[4], lawmakers would level the playing field for small, local businesses and raise up to $290 million in new revenue each year.[5]
  • Restoring the estate tax for heirs inheriting estates worth more than $1 million. By returning sensible taxation of inherited wealth to New Jersey, lawmakers would raise approximately $500 million in new revenue a year and restore an essential safeguard against rapidly increasing wealth inequality.[6]

Spending:

  • The new revenues from the policy changes above would be split 50/50 between general state services (spent in the same proportion as current state spending) and public education (at both the elementary and secondary level, spent in the same proportion as current spending on public education).

Appendix: Economic Model

The employment and economic effects of tax policy changes described in this report were derived from the PI+ Version 2.1 of Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), which generates realistic year-by-year estimates of the total regional effects of any specific policy initiative.

A wide range of policy variables allows the user to represent the policy to be evaluated, while the explicit structure in the model helps the user to interpret the predicted economic and demographic effects.

For more details on the PI+ Version 2.1 model, visit http://www.remi.com/model/pi/

Endnotes

[1] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Reforming New Jersey’s Income Tax Would Help Build Shared Prosperity, September 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/reforming-new-jerseys-income-tax-would-help-build-shared-prosperity

[2] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Poll: Most New Jerseyans Want Bold Solutions on State Taxes, November 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/poll-most-new-jerseyans-want-bold-solutions-on-taxes-public-investments

[3] New Jersey Office of Legislative Services, Legislative Fiscal Estimate on A-12, October 2016. http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/A0500/12_E3.PDF

[4] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Nearly All of New Jersey’s Largest Employers Already Subject to ‘Combined Reporting’ in Other States, January 2016. https://www.njpp.org/budget/nearly-all-of-new-jerseys-largest-employers-already-subject-to-combined-reporting-in-other-states

[5] New Jersey Office of Legislative Services, Legislative Fiscal Estimate on S-982, March 2016. http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/S1000/982_E1.HTM

[6] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Fairly and Adequately Taxing Inherited Wealth Will Fight Inequality & Provide Essential Resources for All New Jerseyans, June 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/fairly-and-adequately-taxing-inherited-wealth-will-fight-inequality-provide-essential-resources-for-all-new-jerseyans

Investing in New Jersey’s Future Will Require New Revenues

Critical investments in public assets won’t happen without more public income

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


To begin rebuilding a strong state economy, New Jersey’s governor and legislators must stabilize the state’s finances and put the Garden State back on track to invest in its competitive assets, which have been largely neglected during a 25-year slide into financial peril. New investments require new revenue that should be tied to much-needed public services and essential investments.

This is the most pressing – and most contentious – of the many problems facing the state’s new governor and legislature. And it can’t be solved by more can kicking, the threat of more spending cuts or misreading the impact of President Trump’s tax revisions. A robust plan for new funding streams is required.

Crucial Public Investments Have Deteriorated

A quarter century of tax cutting, false promises and high-risk financial shenanigans have degraded New Jersey’s economic assets and imperiled its future. How bad has it gotten? Here’s a quick look.

School, municipal and county aid has been sharply reduced after adjusting for inflation, resulting in a steady increase in property taxes

The combination of reduced state aid, steady inflation and property tax caps have led to budget cuts, layoffs of public employees, tacked-on bills for sports and sewers, borrowing to cover annual costs and other financially imprudent – even dangerous – actions by towns, counties and school districts.

Direct property tax relief was slashed during the recession and has not been restored

In 2008, the state budget included $2.8 billion in direct funding to reduce property taxes for eligible aged, disabled or working-class New Jerseyans.[1] By 2012, this had been slashed by 57 percent to just over $1.2 billion, where it has pretty much remained for 7 years[2].

Residential property taxes continue to be the highest in the nation

What politician doesn’t promise “lower property taxes,” almost always without specifying how or what will lower them? Residential property taxes of more than $22.5 billion match the total collected by the state from income and sales taxes, $15 billion of which is dedicated to property tax relief.[3] If even a millionaire’s tax increase affecting only 20,000 of 4 million households is beyond consideration, there is no prospect of significantly reducing property taxes.

New Jersey has shifted the cost of public higher education to students and their families

New Jersey’s public colleges and universities have seen a steady decline of 24 percent since 2010 in state operating aid, when adjusted for inflation.[4] This helps explain the rapidly increasing costs of tuitions and fees at these institutions, and the accompanying growth in student debt. If state support for the operating costs of 4-year public colleges had just kept up with inflation in those costs beginning in 2010, instead of providing $703 million for operating costs for the 2016-17 academic year, the state would have put up just over $1 billion, a gap of 48 percent.[5] And during the same time, the number of students – full-time, part-time and graduate – grew by 10 percent.[6] At county colleges, operating support dropped 18 percent between 2009 and 2017.[7]

NJ Transit – once the national public transit model – is now the nation’s underperformer

State disinvestment in NJ Transit has led the agency to turn more frequently to riders, who now pay the nation’s highest fares for the 2nd worst on-time performance[8][9]. Location is New Jersey’s greatest asset, but if commuter trains to New York and Newark continue their downward slide, the prospects for attracting young families to towns like Ridgewood, Princeton, Summit, Red Bank, Bernardsville and Maplewood with their lively downtowns, excellent public schools and parks are badly diminished.

The state’s budget is unbalanced and its reserve fund is depleted

Next year’s budget begins with having to replace at least $700 million in one-time revenues in this year’s budget and a raid of at least $200 million on a very small reserve to fund Gov. Christie’s opioid treatment campaign. How small is that reserve? New Jersey currently has the third lowest level in the nation – at just 1.3 percent of spending, or enough to fund 4.6 days of operations. The median of the 50 states is 8 percent, enough to fund nearly a month (29.3 days) of operations. And the state’s more permanent “rainy day fund” has been at zero since 2009.[10]

Lawmakers have put New Jersey on the hook for billions in future tax breaks

As the Great Recession receded, New Jersey opted to run the table with a massive set of tax subsidies and little else. Eight years later, the state is in the bottom quintile of states when it comes to economic activity, new job creation and public and private investment. The 2013 Economic Opportunity Act needs to be sharply revised to minimize the harm that this reckless expansion of $5 billion in tax breaks will have over the next few decades and redirect public investments to tried-and-true methods of economic development.

The state is currently unable to fund promised public employee pensions

Since 1994, governors and legislators of both parties have hidden behind the complexity of actuarial calculations to promise pensions and health benefits that they did not bother to fund. New Jersey was the first state to confess to “fraudulent misrepresentation” to the Securities and Exchange Commission for increasing pension benefits by 9 percent financed by funds that didn’t exist. The total owed now exceeds $125 billion ($93 billion for pensions and $34 billion for retiree health benefits). This year alone, the state is $2.5 billion short of the required contribution.[11]

The Big Question: If New Jersey can’t finance the pensions it owes public employees or keep its commuter trains running or even discuss taxing a few thousand millionaires, how can it invest in New Jersey’s crucial assets like great public schools, the nation’s highest-quality preschool program, public colleges and universities or the nation’s 3rd largest public transit system?

Tax Reforms Can Bolster New Jersey’s Economic Future

By cleaning up the state tax code, reversing some of the most ill-advised tax cuts of recent years and asking the state’s wealthiest households to pitch in a bit more, New Jersey could raise over $2.5 billion in new revenues that could be invested in the state’s long-neglected assets, putting the state back on the right track.

Like all investments, public investments take time – and dollars – to bear fruit. Policymakers must begin sowing the seeds for restoring New Jersey’s economic prospects and achieving widely shared prosperity now – and they must do so by raising new revenue to make these critical investments. They should start by restoring the tax cuts that Gov. Christie held hostage to signing the overdue financing of the Transportation Trust Fund in 2016. 

Return the sales tax to 7 percent and modernize its application ($700 million+)

Most New Jerseyans haven’t been helped by the sales tax reduction by a third of a penny since 2016 (from 7 percent to 6.625 percent).[12] But the loss to the state of $600 million each year counts. For example, that’s near the amount that must be found next year to keep up with the 10-year schedule to fully fund pensions. Moreover, the economy has become more service than goods-oriented, yet the sales tax hasn’t kept up with the times. Expanding the sales tax to more services – such as accounting and interior design – would help modernize the sales tax without punishing low- and moderate-income families.[13]

Restore the estate tax at a threshold of $1 million ($400-600 million)

Under New Jersey’s recently-eliminated estate tax, only about 5 percent of the state’s 70,000 deaths each year triggered an estate tax payment. The new federal tax law doubles the floor on federal estate taxation to $24 million for a wife-husband estate, meaning that most of New Jersey’s wealthy families have nothing to worry about. Restoring the state estate tax with a threshold of $1 million would capture most of the dollars but very few of the estates that formerly were assessed. (In fact, it would recoup 93 percent of the tax revenue the state is now losing, capturing an estimated $5.6 billion over the next decade.[14]) On top of that, it would be sensible to increase the tax rate to capture some of the windfall the wealthiest heirs will get from the federal law.

Make the income tax more equitable by increasing rates on the wealthiest 5 percent of households ($1 billion+)

Increasing income tax rates on New Jersey’s wealthiest families households by creating 4 new income tax brackets and raising the top tax rate (on income over $2.5 million) to 11 percent would make the state’s tax code fairer. This tax increase – which is supported by 3 in 4 New Jersey voters – would be paid almost exclusively by New Jersey’s ultra-wealthy, with the top 1 percent – households with average annual incomes of $3 million – paying 85 percent of the new tax.[15] And even after this change, the wealthiest New Jerseyans would still be paying much less of their incomes on state and local taxes than the bottom 80 percent.

At the very least, policymakers should increase the income tax rate on earnings over $1 million, the so-called “millionaire’s tax” that would raise $600 million or more. The withdrawal of support by the Senate President puts even this modest revenue increase in peril, but does not dilute the fairness or value of it. The argument that its renewal would somehow lead to a loss of revenue defies simple arithmetic and common sense. The number of households with over $1 million in income filing taxes in New Jersey increased from 13,300 in 2005 to 20,600 by 2015, a 55 percent increase, which hardly represents the “exodus” so frequently asserted.[16] And the percentage of households reporting incomes of $500,000 and up increased five-fold in the years 1994 to 2014 (from .4 of 1% to 2%).

Close corporate tax loopholes used by multi-state corporations ($110m to $290m)

“Combined reporting” requires multi-state corporations to file a tax return that captures its business activities in all states in which they conduct business. This approach, which is now in force in 25 of the 45 states with a corporate business tax including such classic “red” states as Texas, Utah and Montana, prevents corporations from transferring profits to states without a business tax or ones with a very low tax rate. Most of New Jersey’s largest corporations are already honoring combined reporting requirements in other states without dire consequences.[17]

Consider recouping a piece of the windfall corporations will receive from the federal tax changes ($500m)

The recently enacted federal tax “reform” is friendliest to corporations, which have been granted a permanent and significant tax cut. It’s sensible for New Jersey to offset some of this windfall by modestly raising the corporate tax rate and investing the new revenue in public assets and services that can boost the state’s economy and help working families get ahead. An increase of 2.5 percent from the current rate of 9 percent would produce approximately $500 million in additional revenues without diluting strongly the federal tax windfall.

These are tax changes that need attention and deliberation if New Jersey is to return to a competitive economic position. Without raising these revenues to restore and expand public investments, New Jersey will continue to be in the bottom 20 percent of states for economic activity and job growth.

Next Tuesday, Gov. Murphy will present his first budget. If it does not call for significant new revenues, then New Jersey is fated to continue on its downward slide of a quarter century without the means to invest in the state’s neglected assets.


Endnotes

[1] New Jersey Office of Management and Budget, Fiscal 2009 Budget in Brief, February 2008. http://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/publications/09bib/BIB.pdf

[2] New Jersey Office of Management and Budget, The Governor’s FY 2013 Budget Summary, February 2012. http://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/publications/13bib/BIB.pdf

[3] New Jersey Department of Community Affairs, Property Tax Tables, 2017, http://www.state.nj.us/dca/divisions/dlgs/resources/property_docs/17_data/17taxes.xls

[4] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, A Lost Decade in Higher Education Funding State Cuts Have Driven Up Tuition and Reduced Quality, August 2017. https://www.cbpp.org/research/a-lost-decade-in-higher-education-funding-state-cuts-have-driven-up-tuition-and-reduced

[5] NJPP analysis of Commonfund Higher Education Price Index, 2017 Update. Available at https://www.commonfund.org/commonfund-institute/higher-education-price-index-hepi/

[6] NJPP analysis of New Jersey Office of the Secretary of Higher Education enrollment statistics. Available at http://www.state.nj.us/highereducation/statistics/index.shtml#ENR

[7] Ibid 5

[8] The Star-Ledger, Boston’s stuck! Beantown rail fleet tops NJ Transit as least reliable, October 2017. http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2017/10/nj_transit_trains_are_no_longer_the_least_reliable_in_us_but_its_close.html

[9] The Star-Ledger, Do N.J. rail commuters pay the highest fares in America?, May 2016. http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2016/05/nj_rail_riders_still_pay_the_highest_fares_in_america_or_dont_they.html

[10] The Pew Charitable Trusts, State Rainy Day Funds Grow Even as Total Balances Lag, Updated January 2018. http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2014/fiscal-50#ind5

[11] “State of New Jersey, Debt Report, Fiscal Year 2016, March 2017. http://www.nj.gov/treasury/public_finance/pdf/DebtReportFY2016.pdf

[12] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Poll: Most New Jerseyans Want Bold Solutions on State Taxes, November 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/poll-most-new-jerseyans-want-bold-solutions-on-taxes-public-investments

[13] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Modernizing New Jersey’s Sales Tax Will Level the Playing Field & Help the Economy Thrive, February 2018. https://www.njpp.org/budget/modernizing-new-jerseys-sales-tax-will-level-the-playing-field-help-the-economy-thrive

[14] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Fairly and Adequately Taxing Inherited Wealth Will Fight Inequality & Provide Essential Resources for All New Jerseyans, June 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/fairly-and-adequately-taxing-inherited-wealth-will-fight-inequality-provide-essential-resources-for-all-new-jerseyans

[15] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Reforming New Jersey’s Income Tax Would Help Build Shared Prosperity, September 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/reforming-new-jerseys-income-tax-would-help-build-shared-prosperity

[16] NJPP analysis of New Jersey Treasury Department Statistics on Income data, 2006 and 2017.

[17] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Nearly All of New Jersey’s Largest Employers Already Subject to ‘Combined Reporting’ in Other States, January 2016. https://www.njpp.org/budget/nearly-all-of-new-jerseys-largest-employers-already-subject-to-combined-reporting-in-other-states

A $15 Minimum Wage Would Help Over 1 Million Workers and Boost New Jersey’s Economy

Raising wages would help fight poverty and improve the well-being of workers & their families

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


Raising New Jersey’s minimum wage to $15 an hour would reduce poverty while boosting the state’s economy by ensuring that more working people have more dollars to spend on essential goods and services. Unemployment has decreased significantly as New Jersey slowly emerges from the Great Recession, but wages have stagnated, and hardship and economic insecurity have increased. In other words, more people are working now but they aren’t earning enough to make ends meet for themselves or their families.

Gradually increasing the minimum wage to $15 by 2023 would boost wages for 1.2 million of the state’s 4.2 million workers and pump $4.5 billion in increased wages directly into the state’s economy. For the state to fully realize the many benefits of a stronger wage floor, it must include all workers, no matter who they are or the type of work they do.

Poverty Persists in an Uneven Economic Recovery; Raising Wages Would Help Ensure that Growth is More Broadly Shared

Low-income workers across high-cost New Jersey are not paid enough to reliably provide for themselves and their families. These low wages in turn depress our economy, dilute the quality and value of our jobs, and exacerbate poverty and inequality across the state.

Many policymakers look to decreased unemployment as the key to shared prosperity – the idea being that the rising tide of fuller employment will lift all boats. But when basic worker standards like the wage floor fail to keep up with economic and productivity growth, we clearly see the limits of reduced unemployment in providing a pathway out of poverty.

While New Jersey’s unemployment rate fell by 45 percent – from 10.9 to 6 percent – from 2011 to 2016, the share of Garden State residents facing economic hardship did not follow suit; this metric barely budged. In fact, the share of New Jerseyans living below 100 percent of the federal poverty level (or $25,100 for a family of 4)[1] was the same in 2016 that it was in 2011: 10.4 percent, or approximately 900,000 people. And the share of New Jerseyans experiencing true hardship – living below 200 percent of the federal poverty level (or $50,200 for a family of 4) – decreased by just 4 percent from 2011 to 2016, falling from 24.7 percent to 23.8 percent, representing more than 2 million New Jerseyans.

Why has there has been significant reduction in unemployment but hardly any change in the share of struggling New Jerseyans? While drops in the poverty rate typically lag drops in unemployment, the facts remain: the poverty rate is far too high and too many hard-working New Jerseyans are not paid adequate wages for their work, in large part because the state’s minimum wage remains far below a survivable wage, never mind a living wage. Low-wage workers are not the only victims. Low wages and widespread hardship also hurts businesses and the state’s economy. How can anyone expect a robust economy when 1 in 4 workers have insufficient incomes? How can any business expect to thrive when so many would-be customers aren’t paid enough to purchase their products or services?

Of course, there are solutions that would help workers, reduce poverty and boost the economy. Chief among them is to gradually increase the state’s minimum wage to something more approaching a living wage. In 2016, the New Jersey legislature passed a bill to do just that, but Gov. Christie vetoed the measure.[2] Fortunately, the state’s new governor, Phil Murphy, made raising the wage to $15 an hour a core piece of his campaign platform. As the new administration and legislature move forward with this critical economic policy solution, it’s important to remember how widespread the need is and why such an increase would be a boon for New Jersey workers, families, businesses and the state’s economy at large.

Raising the minimum wage directly puts more money in the pockets of low-income workers who cannot meet their basic, everyday needs. With more take-home pay, these workers will spend that money immediately and locally on goods and services they were previously unable to afford. Essentially, their increased income is liquid, meaning that it is revolving through the economy instead of sitting stagnant in an investment account or stashed offshore, which is what typically happens when tax breaks are given to the wealthy.

Raising the Wage Would Have Positive Health and Social Effects, Too

Much of the conversation on increasing the wage focuses on the economic impact, but it is important to note the other positive effects that such a change would have on New Jersey workers and their families.

Academic research on the effects of the minimum wage shows that increases help lead to reductions in recidivism,[3] reductions in domestic violence and child abuse,[4] and reductions in teen pregnancy rates,[5] all of which – in addition to the positive effects of reducing poverty – have substantial benefits of improved public health and savings of taxpayer dollars.

On the flip side, scores of economic and health studies have shown a clear link between low incomes and serious health problems including diabetes, heart disease, arthritis and infant mortality.

There is a growing consensus that income is one of the most important determinants of health outcomes. Not only does the amount one is paid directly affect that person’s access to basic health needs (insurance, doctors, etc.), but as the American Public Health Association notes, income also shapes one’s access to other “social determinants of health, such as housing, education, and job opportunities.”[6]

New Jersey’s minimum wage of $8.60 an hour is a guaranteed poverty wage given the state’s high cost of living. Raising the wage to a survivable level that enables workers in low-income jobs to escape poverty will reduce the number of individuals reliant upon safety net programs – which frees up taxpayer dollars for use in other important areas – and lower the demand for various health services, helping to mitigate rising healthcare costs.[7]

Taken together, the long-term and far-reaching benefits of increasing the minimum wage to $15 will easily outweigh any of the costs or supposed negative impacts that its opponents broadcast when the idea is discussed.

Raising the Wage Would Benefit a Large & Diverse Group of Workers

The number of New Jersey workers who would benefit from a minimum wage increase to $15 an hour will depend on how quickly the increase is phased in.

For now, we assume that lawmakers would follow a similar (but not identical) phase-in schedule incorporated in the 2016 bill vetoed by Gov. Christie. For the sake of simplicity, we assume that the minimum wage would be increased to $10.10 an hour in the first step, on January 1, 2019, with four annual $1.25 increases to follow, bringing New Jersey’s minimum wage to $15.10 an hour by 2023.

This increase would equal a $4.5 billion raise for 1.2 million New Jersey workers, or 28 percent of the state’s workforce.

Of those workers, 865,000 – those who currently make less than $14.39 (the current-dollar equivalent of $15.10 in 2023) – would be directly affected by the increase and another 285,000 – those who earn slightly more than the new minimum and would likely see their pay also increase – would be indirectly affected.

These workers are nearly all adults, most are working full time, many have pursued a higher education and they are raising an estimated 458,000 children.

Most of the New Jersey workers who would benefit are in the retail, food service, and health care industries.

Today’s Minimum Wage Falls Short for New Jersey Working Families

On January 1, 2018, New Jersey’s minimum wage rose 1.9 percent to $8.60 an hour. While this is higher than the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour it is still a poverty wage in New Jersey. For example, a full-time minimum wage worker who doesn’t miss even one hour of work for the entire year will only earn $17,888.

A single New Jersey worker with no dependents cannot afford her basic needs on a wage less than $15 an hour. This is true in every region of the state.

The Economic Policy Institute’s family budget tool estimates what it takes to maintain a basic budget that accounts for major expenses – housing, food, transportation, health care, child care and taxes – and a modest amount for other necessities like clothing, household supplies, and entertainment. This proposed budget does not include money for other typical expenditures like modest weekend trips or savings.

In the least expensive part of the state, the Ocean City metro area, a single adult would have to earn $15.15 an hour – $31,512 per year – to afford this basic budget; in the most expensive part of the state, the Bergen and Passaic metro area, a single adult would have to earn $20.83 an hour – $42,243 per year – to afford the same.

Meanwhile, the income gap between New Jersey’s very wealthy residents and the rest of us – particularly the poorest residents – persists and is growing. New Jersey now ranks 7th in the nation in income inequality, with the top 5 percent of households having average incomes 15.6 times higher than the bottom 20 percent of households. This inequality has intensified in recent decades: between 1979 and 2013, incomes for the wealthiest 1 percent of New Jersey households grew by 190 percent – a rate 9.5 times higher than the income growth for the bottom 99 percent.[8]

Low wages not only pose a danger to workers and our economy, they also result in the expenditure of taxpayer dollars to support programs that too many low-paid workers need to get by. New Jersey spends an estimated $726 million a year on basic safety net programs for working families. This cost estimate is a significant undercount, since it includes Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) but not the state’s share of the Earned Income Tax Credit, the tax credit for working families who aren’t paid enough to make ends meet.[9]

While a robust safety net is important to assist all families who have fallen on hard times, the state has a critical role to play in ensuring that these programs aren’t subsidizing profitable corporations that are paying poverty wages. In a state with significant budget problems, $726 million is a serious amount of money that could be spent on other priorities and public services.

Tipped Workers Deserve A Raise Too

Recent conversations around raising the minimum wage in New Jersey have left out some of the state’s lowest-paid and most vulnerable workers: those who rely on tips.[10] These workers must be included in any minimum wage increase.

Currently, New Jersey’s wage floor for tipped workers is tied to the federal tipped minimum wage: $2.13 an hour. If a worker doesn’t make the $6.47 in tips necessary to bring them to the state’s $8.60 an hour minimum wage, their employer is required to make up the shortfall – this is called a “tip credit.” Unfortunately, asking for the difference falls to workers, many of whom may feel like their jobs are at risk if they speak up. Not surprisingly, there is significant evidence to show that tipped workers suffer from higher rates of wage theft than other workers.[11]

Additionally, recent action by the Trump administration has made wage theft even more likely. In December 2017, the Department of Labor proposed a rule that would allow restaurant owners to legally take the tips earned by their workers as long as those workers earn the minimum wage – a move that could lead to New Jersey’s tipped workers losing $120 million every year.[12]

The median wage of American tipped workers is $10.22 an hour, compared to $16.48 an hour for the general workforce.[13] Tipped workers are more likely to be women (66.6 percent of tipped workers vs. 48.3 percent of the total workforce) and people of color (38.5 percent of tipped workers vs. 33.9 percent of the total workforce). And the women who work for tips make less, with a median wage of $10.07 an hour compared to $10.63 an hour for male tipped workers.[14]

New Jersey should do away with the tipped wage altogether. This two-tiered wage system has been around since 1966, when amendments to the Fair Labor Standards Act introduced a “subminimum wage” for workers who receive tips. Seven states – Alaska, California, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington – do not have a subminimum wage for tipped workers. Another 31 states, plus the District of Columbia, have tipped minimum wages that are above the federal level of $2.13 an hour.

When increasing the minimum wage, lawmakers must address New Jersey’s tipped wage – if not by eliminating it, at least by raising it to a higher share of the minimum wage.

Failing to act would create a $12.87 gap that employers are theoretically expected to make up for their tipped workers, nearly double what the current gap is. Seven other states have shown that having a separate and lower wage for tipped workers is unnecessary, and doing away with it would simplify labor regulations, mitigate income inequality, and bolster the state’s economy by helping more workers move closer to a livable wage.

Misleading Myths About Wage Increases & Job Losses

When lawmakers work to increase the minimum wage, opponents line up to say doing so would hurt the economy and lead to a significant loss of jobs. These claims are as old as wage increases themselves, but decades of real-world experience show that they are false.

In fact, the overwhelming majority of rigorous research shows that increasing the minimum wage increase the earnings of workers with little to no adverse impact on employment.[15]

An exhaustive report by the National Employment Law Project in 2016 looked at the effects of federal minimum wage increases over the past 70 years and found that, even for industries which are most affected by higher minimum wages, there was no correlation between those increases and lower levels of employment.[16] And two recent meta-studies ­– “studies of studies” that pooled the results of 91 separate analyses – have similarly found essentially no employment effects from minimum wage increases.[17]

And New Jersey’s own history belies opposition claims of economic harm – the last time the state increased the minimum wage through the ballot in 2013 from $7.25 to $8.25, opponents claimed we would lose 30,000 jobs;[18] instead, we gained 90,000.[19]

The Seattle Situation

Seattle implemented a phased-in minimum wage increase starting in April of 2015 that reached $15 for large employers – those with more than 500 employees – this year and will reach that level for small employers between 2019 and 2021 depending on whether they pay toward their workers’ health benefits.[20]

A recent and widely cited University of Washington study claimed that Seattle’s minimum wage increase resulted in a significant loss of jobs, leading some to suggest that $15 an hour – even in a thriving and high-cost economy like Seattle’s – was simply too high of a minimum wage. But the study’s methodology has raised a lot of questions and critiques from economists and researchers,[21] [22] [23] [24] including:

  1. The study was limited to single-site establishments, excluding workers at multi-site chains such as Starbucks or Walmart where positive effects of minimum wage increases are often realized, and leaving out 40 percent of the city’s workforce;
  2. By excluding workers employed by multi-site chains, the study incorrectly counted a worker who left a job at a small business for a job at a larger company as a job loss;
  3. The study focused on jobs that pay $19 or less, assuming that a reduction of jobs in that bracket equaled a loss of opportunity for workers and counted as lost jobs, when instead it should have recognized that many jobs that were formerly in that pay range have seen a wage increase raising them above it;
  4. The study used other cities in Washington state as a control for its experiment with Seattle, instead of using other cities from around the country that are similar to Seattle in important characteristics like size, population, and economic activity – as other more reliable studies have done.

It is also notable that the study’s findings are not in line with the large amount of research related to minimum wage increases – even the research that has found job losses.

The UW study also flies in the face of how Seattle’s economy has actually performed since it began phasing in its minimum wage increase. While the unemployment rate has varied but remained largely the same since the ordinance took effect in 2015, the city’s poverty rate has dropped from 14.4 percent in 2014 – the year before the minimum wage ordinance took effect – to 11.5 percent in 2016. That represents an estimated 14,708 fewer people in poverty just within Seattle alone, a fact made even more remarkable when you consider that the city’s population has grown by 36,389 people over the same period of time.[25]

One of the primary points of opposition to Seattle’s minimum wage increase was that it would lead to widespread restaurant closings. Tom Douglas, a notable restaurateur who owned 15 restaurants in Seattle at the time, predicted that he would “lose maybe a quarter” of his restaurants in the city.[26] But, just like many of the other predictions made by opponents, such doom and gloom has not materialized. Instead, the opposite has occurred: more restaurants have opened in Seattle than previous years.[27] Douglas himself has contributed to this trend, having opened more restaurants and recanted his previous prediction.

Another claim of opponents is that raising the minimum wage will lead to drastic price increases for food and groceries. In 2014, prior to the implementation of the wage increase, the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce released a survey, revealing that 50 percent of participating companies believed they would need to “increase prices to offset a $15 minimum wage.”[28] Once again, this concern by-and-large has not been realized.

A 2017 study by the University of Washington School of Public Health looked at grocery store prices from the month before the wage increase took effect to two years after it began and found no significant change.[29] “There is no evidence of change in supermarket food prices by market basket or increase in prices by food group in response to the implementation of Seattle’s minimum wage ordinance,” it concludes.[30]

Despite what many opponents want lawmakers and the public to believe, Seattle’s economy has continued to grow while its minimum wage has risen. The many predictions of lost jobs, shuttered restaurants, increased food prices, and all around economic disaster never came to fruition – not even close.

Low Wages & Income Inequality Are Damaging New Jersey

The rising dangers of poverty and its closely linked partner of income inequality pose a serious danger not just to New Jersey, but the country at large. The High Commissioner for Human Rights at the United Nations recently finished an investigation into extreme poverty in the United States. The report’s findings should give pause to all those who believe in a strong and prosperous nation.[31]

“The American Dream is rapidly becoming the American Illusion, as the United States now has the lowest rate of social mobility of any of the rich countries,” the report reads. The report is exhaustive in its detail and historical context, painting a dispiriting picture of the nation’s economic landscape and the damage it wrecks on such a large portion of the population. Unsurprisingly, many of the hardships described show their hallmarks here in the Garden State through rising inequality and deep poverty, and they grow more conspicuous by the day.

New Jerseyans continue to struggle to make ends meet in an economy where whatever gains that have been made since the Great Recession have gone to the already wealthy. Poverty is stubbornly high, and income inequality poses a great threat to our economy and society. Taken together, the arguments against raising the minimum wage ring hollow in contrast to the threats we face if we fail to act. Raising the minimum wage is an absolute necessity to strengthen New Jersey’s economy and spread prosperity to every worker, family, and business in this state.


Endnotes


[1] U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, U.S. Federal Poverty Guidelines Used To Determine Financial Eligibility For Certain Federal Programs, 2018. https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines

[2] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Gov. Christie Rejects Pay Boost for Nearly 1 Million Workers, August 2016. https://www.njpp.org/blog/gov-christie-rejects-pay-boost-for-nearly-1-million-new-jerseyans

[3] Agan, A. Y. and Makowsky, M. D., The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism, January 2018. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3097203

[4] Raissian, K. M., Bullinger, L. R., Money matters: Does the minimum wage affect child maltreatment rates?, January 2017. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0190740916303139?via%3Dihub#!

[5] Bullinger, L. R., The Effect of Minimum Wages on Adolescent Fertility: A Nationwide Analysis, March 2017. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28103069

[6] American Public Health Association, Improving Health by Increasing the Minimum Wage, November 2016. https://www.apha.org/policies-and-advocacy/public-health-policy-statements/policy-database/2017/01/18/improving-health-by-increasing-minimum-wage

[7] Economic Policy Institute, Raising the minimum wage could improve public health, July 2016. http://www.epi.org/blog/raising-the-minimum-wage-could-improve-public-health/

[8] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, How State Tax Policies Can Stop Increasing Inequality and Start Reducing It, December 2016. https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/how-state-tax-policies-can-stop-increasing-inequality-and-start

[9] UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education, The High Public Cost of Low Wages, April 2015. http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/pdf/2015/the-high-public-cost-of-low-wages.pdf

[10] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Raising the Tipped Minimum Wage Would Increase the Economic Security of Many Hard-Working New Jerseyans, July 2014. https://www.njpp.org/reports/raising-the-tipped-minimum-wage-would-increase-the-economic-security-of-many-hard-working-new-jerseyans

[11] Economic Policy Institute, Employers steal billions from workers’ paychecks each year, May 2017. http://www.epi.org/publication/employers-steal-billions-from-workers-paychecks-each-year-survey-data-show-millions-of-workers-are-paid-less-than-the-minimum-wage-at-significant-cost-to-taxpayers-and-state-economies/

[12] Economic Policy Institute, Employers would pocket $5.8 billion of workers’ tips under Trump administration’s proposed ‘tip stealing’ rule, December 2017. http://www.epi.org/publication/employers-would-pocket-workers-tips-under-trump-administrations-proposed-tip-stealing-rule/

[13] Economic Policy Institute, Twenty-Three Years and Still Waiting for Change, July 2014. https://www.epi.org/publication/waiting-for-change-tipped-minimum-wage/

[14] Ibid. XXIV

[15] Business for a Fair Minimum Wage, Research Shows Minimum Wage Increases Do Not Cause Job Loss, 2018. https://www.businessforafairminimumwage.org/news/00135/research-shows-minimum-wage-increases-do-not-cause-job-loss

[16] National Employment Law Project, Raise Wages, Kill Jobs? Seven Decades of Historical Data Find No Correlation Between Minimum Wage Increases and Employment Levels, May 2016. http://www.nelp.org/publication/raise-wages-kill-jobs-no-correlation-minimum-wage-increases-employment-levels/

[17] See pages 4-6 in Center for Economic and Policy Research, Why Does the Minimum Wage Have No Discernible Effect on Employment?, February 2013. http://cepr.net/documents/publications/min-wage-2013-02.pdf

[18] Watchdog, New Jersey’s minimum-wage question poses maximum complexity, October 2013. https://www.watchdog.org/new_jersey/new-jersey-s-minimum-wage-question-poses-maximum-complexity/article_3e1f3a4a-a943-549c-8568-e5639189b72d.html

[19] NJPP analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings, New Jersey, Total Non-Farm, 2013-2015.

[20] Office of Seattle Mayor Edward B. Murray, $15 Minimum Wage. http://murray.seattle.gov/minimumwage/

[21] The Washington Post, Seattle’s higher minimum wage is actually working just fine, June 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/06/27/seattles-higher-minimum-wage-is-actually-working-just-fine/?utm_term=.f2b59cb4e742

[22] Economic Policy Institute, The “high road” Seattle labor market and the effect of the minimum wage increase, June 2017. http://www.epi.org/publication/the-high-road-seattle-labor-market-and-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-data-limitations-and-methodological-problems-bias-new-analysis-of-seattles-minimum-wage-incr/

[23] Economic Opportunity Institute, A tale of two studies: poor research leads to poor findings on minimum wage, June 2017. http://www.eoionline.org/blog/a-tale-of-two-studies/

[24] On the Economy – A Jared Bernstein Blog, That Seattle minimum wage study has some curious results, June 2017. http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/that-seattle-minimum-wage-study-has-some-curious-results/

[25] NJPP analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 – 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

[26] The Stranger, Tom Douglas Talks About How a $15 Minimum Wage Would Affect His Restaurants, March 2014. https://www.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/03/11/tom-douglas-talks-about-how-a-15-minimum-wage-would-affect-his-restaurants

[27] Puget Sound Business Journal, Apocalypse Not: $15 and the cuts that never came, October 2015. https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/print-edition/2015/10/23/apocolypse-not-15-and-the-cuts-that-never-came.html

[28] Washington Policy Center, Seattle Employers Warn $15 Minimum Wage Will Come With a Hefty Price Tag, April 2014. https://www.washingtonpolicy.org/publications/detail/seattle-employers-warn-15-minimum-wage-will-come-with-a-hefty-price-tag

[29] UW Medicine, Seattle’s minimum-wage hike didn’t boost supermarket prices, September 2017. https://newsroom.uw.edu/news/seattle%E2%80%99s-minimum-wage-hike-didnt-boost-supermarket-prices

[30] International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, The Impact of a City-Level Minimum-Wage Policy on Supermarket Food Prices in Seattle-King County, September 2017. http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/9/1039

Modernizing New Jersey’s Sales Tax Will Level the Playing Field and Help the Economy Thrive

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


Strengthening New Jersey’s ability to compete in the 21st century economy requires updates to a sales tax code that was designed and implemented before the rise of online shopping and a service-oriented economy.

New Jersey can modernize its sales tax and raise revenue required to invest in public services by:

  • Broadening the tax base to include more services
  • Adopting a remote sales tax law
  • Closing the online hotel tax loophole
  • Repealing the yacht sales tax
  • Last but not least, returning the tax rate to 7 percent

Like nearly all other states, New Jersey levies a sales tax on consumers purchasing goods and services at the retail level. The sales tax brings in more than $9 billion a year, making up a little over 25 percent of state revenues, making it a critical source for funding higher education, health care, public safety and other important public services required for a thriving state economy. About 20 percent of New Jersey’s sales tax revenue comes from non-residents.

Examples of taxable items in New Jersey include cars, furniture and meals in restaurants. Taxable services include snow removal and lawn maintenance, auto repair and cable and internet services. Exempt from the sales tax are goods and services like groceries, clothing, certain professional services and real estate sales. Although New Jersey does not allow local governments to levy general sales taxes, there are a few exceptions in place to mostly help tourism thrive in a handful of shore towns and support economic development in Atlantic City.

The general sales tax is added as a percentage of the purchase price.[1] Sellers add the tax to the purchase price, collect the tax from the buyer at the time of sale and then periodically submit the revenue to the state treasury. The current rate is 6.625 percent, the fifth highest among states that levy a sales tax (California has the highest state-level rate, at 7.25 percent). But because other states permit municipalities to levy a local sales tax, New Jersey’s rate is actually lower than that of nearby metro areas. New York City’s combined sales tax rate, for example, is 8.875 percent. Philadelphia’s combined rate is 8 percent.

Because so many everyday items are taxed, just about everyone in the state pays the sales tax. But the sales tax is regressive, meaning that low-income shoppers spend a larger share of their income on the sales tax then everyone else. The bottom 20 percent of New Jersey families pay 5.5 percent of their average annual incomes to sales and excise taxes (this includes fuel taxes, which aren’t directly addressed in this report), while middle-income families pay 3.2 percent and the wealthiest 1 percent of families pay just 0.7 percent. However, keeping grocery items and clothing tax-free does help make New Jersey’s sales tax less regressive than other states’ sales taxes. In fact, the gap between the average share of income paid to sales and excise taxes by the bottom 20 percent of families and the top 1 percent in New Jersey is the 10th smallest of all states.

On the whole, the sales tax has been a reliable source of revenue for New Jersey, making up over 25 percent of New Jersey’s revenues in nearly every year since 2000 (with the exception of 2005 and 2006). But the 2016 cut to the sales tax will put a dent in collections. Lawmakers ought to reform New Jersey’s sales tax with three priorities in mind: modernizing it, making it fairer and ensuring it raises adequate revenue to spur public investments.

Broaden the Sales Tax to Include More Services

The nature of New Jersey’s economy has changed dramatically since the sales tax was first introduced in 1966. At that time, industries producing goods accounted for more than a third of the national gross domestic product (GDP). By 2016, the manufacturing sector was down to 18 percent of the economy, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the services industry grew from half of GDP to more than two-thirds during that same 50-year period.

Things like cell phones, internet, cable TV, health clubs, tanning salons and lawn maintenance are common services people pay for today that were not as widespread a few decades ago. As services become an ever-more important fixture of the state economy, policymakers ought to be taxing more of them.

The services subject to New Jersey’s sales tax were last updated in 2006. These changes a dozen years ago led to the taxation of services like computer software, floor covering installation, delivery charges, some landscaping services, storage units, health club memberships, tanning salons, massage services and tattoo parlors. At the time, the state estimated the sales tax reform would generate over $400 million in new annual revenue.[2] In its first year, it did just that, bringing in $427 million, a 5 percent increase in sales receipts.

As services become an even larger part of household spending, New Jersey’s sales tax must adjust and adapt. The taxation of services also allows state policymakers to fold them into the sales tax code with a focus on high-end services to make the tax code fairer. These include professional services like accounting and bookkeeping and those provided by architects, attorneys and engineers as well as services that are predominantly utilized by upper-income households like investment counseling, interior decorating, private club membership fees, chartered flights, horse training and dry-cleaning services. (See Appendix for an expanded list of exempt services.) In addition, policymakers need to reverse course on legislation passed last year that dropped the sales tax on limousine services.

Levying sales taxes on more services would make New Jersey’s tax systems not only fairer but would help to create a more stable tax base over the long term and may help reduce the year-to-year volatility of sales tax collections. Finally, expanding the sales tax to include more services could generate a substantial amount of revenue to help the state maintain funding of important investments like higher education, public safety, mass transit and other vital services.

Adopt a Remote Sales Tax Law

In 2012 New Jersey negotiated an agreement with Amazon to force the online retail giant to collect sales tax from Garden State consumers. It was an important step, but more action on remote sales to New Jersey shoppers is needed.

Federal law prevents states from collecting sales tax from out-of-state retailers that don’t have a physical presence in the state. Nonetheless, online and catalog shoppers that live in states that charge a sales tax are still legally obligated to pay the tax on purchases directly to the state government. Most people, of course, are not aware of this obligation and many of those who are, willfully ignore the law. This lack of compliance, while common, undermines states’ ability to collect sales tax on internet, catalog and other remote sales and puts local businesses owners who must charge sales tax on every purchase at a severe disadvantage. Without the authority to require out-of-state sellers to collect and submit sales taxes, states have lost more than $10 billion in lost annual revenue to online shopping alone.[3]

A federal solution to this problem would be ideal, but without a federal fix there is one avenue that could empower New Jersey to collect sales tax on remote sales and protect local businesses from unfair competition. An innovative disclosure law enacted in Colorado in 2016 requires remote retailers to remind customers that they likely owe sales tax on their purchases.[4] It also requires remote retailers to report some purchaser information to the state which it can use to seek payment of unpaid taxes on “big-ticket” items.[5]

Specifically, the law requires that out-of-state sellers notify their customers on the online “shopping cart” summary page that they may owe sales tax on what they bought. The seller then must mail a statement to their customers each year with a summary of the dollar amounts and nature of their purchases made the previous year and a reminder of their sales tax obligations. Finally, a document listing each customer’s total annual dollar amount of purchases must be provided by the remote seller to the state revenue department. This notification allows the state to selectively collect owed sales tax from customers who made large online purchases.

A more comprehensive and efficient solution to taxing remote purchases would be federal legislation authorizing states to require all remote sellers to charge sales tax in exchange for a simplified sales tax code. But until that happens, New Jersey should do what it can to ensure that its online shoppers are paying their fair share of sales tax, giving small in-state businesses a level playing field and providing the revenue needed to fund vital services and invest in things like education, infrastructure and health care.

Close the Online Travel Loophole and Tax Airbnb Bookings

Right now online travel companies like Expedia, Orbitz and Priceline can avoid collecting all the applicable sales tax on hotel room bookings even though New Jersey collects the tax when travel agents or travelers themselves book the same room. This loophole is not uncommon and costs states between $275 million and $400 million in combined annual revenue.[6]

Here is how the loophole works: online travel companies do collect taxes on applicable sales and lodging taxes but only on the wholesale room rate they pay hotels for the right to rent the rooms, not the higher retail room rate they actually charge renters. They argue that this practice fulfills their tax collecting obligation. However, state routinely tax the full retail price charged to customers for other types of sales found on online travel websites.

To ensure that the full retail room charge is taxed when the room is booked online, New Jersey needs to modernize its law which was written before the advent of the online booking industry. Closing this loophole could generate between $8 million and $12 million more in annual sales tax revenue based on 2010 data.[7]

Similarly, short-term rental marketplaces like Airbnb should also be collecting sales tax. In 2016, over 6,000 New Jersey homeowners rented out rooms or homes on Airbnb to over a quarter of a million people, generating $50 million in income. Last year the legislature passed a bill to include a sales tax plus an occupancy tax to these informal online bookings. Despite support from the business community and Airbnb itself, Gov. Christie vetoed the bill. It was estimated that the bill would generate more than $6 million in sales tax revenue and help to level the playing field for New Jersey’s lodging industry.

Reverse the Tax Break for Yacht and Boat Buyers

In 2016, New Jersey cut the sales tax on boats and other vessels sold in the state in half and capped the sales tax on boats at $20,000 – meaning that buyers of the most expensive boats are receiving even larger tax breaks. For example, an 80-foot yacht in the $5 million range used to be subject to a $350,000 sales tax. That same luxury boat is now subject to just $20,000 in sales tax – a 94 percent tax cut. The special and unnecessary exemption for boaters is estimated to cost the state between $8 million and $15 million in annual revenue.[8]

At a time when the state has not increased funding for TANF for over 30 years, it certainly sends the wrong message to provide such tax breaks for those who need it the least. This 2015 sales tax cut should be reversed.

Return the Sales Tax Rate to 7 Percent

Last but not least, lawmakers need to reverse the gimmicky 2016 reduction in the sales tax rate, which has put very little extra cash in the pockets of most New Jersey working families but has blown a large hole in the state’s budget.

Under the tax cut, which was part of a larger deal to secure long-overdue transportation infrastructure funding, New Jersey’s sales tax dropped from 7 percent to 6.625 percent, where it stands today. The cost of this cut is about $600 million a year and growing (by 2026, for example, it’s expected to be $735 million).[9]

That kind of revenue loss is a huge blow to the state, but because the cost is spread across so many purchases and so many families, it barely registers in the pocketbooks of everyday New Jerseyans. Even the wealthiest 1 percent of families only save an average of $14 a week, while those in the bottom 20 percent earning less than $25,000 will see savings of less than a buck a week. New Jerseyans in the middle 20 percent (household incomes between $49,000 and $79,000) get an average tax cut of $1.65 a week.[10]

Appendix: Services Exempt from New Jersey Sales Tax

Endnotes

[1] New Jersey also levies an excise tax on specific items, including gasoline, alcohol and tobacco.

[2] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Expanding Sales Taxation of Services: Options and Issues, July 2009. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/8-10-09sfp.pdf

[3] Bruce, Fox and Luna in Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, States Should Adopt a Version of Colorado’s Remote Sales Tax Law, August 2017. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/8-3-17sfp.pdf

[4] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, States Should Adopt a Version of Colorado’s Remote Sales Tax Law, August 2017. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/8-3-17sfp.pdf

[5] Only seven states (Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Vermont and Washington) have enacted some type of sales tax notification and reporting law. However, most are inferior to Colorado’s law and none are as comprehensive as the Multistate Tax Commission’s draft model law.

[6] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, State and Local Governments Should Close Online Hotel Tax Loophole and Collect Taxes Owed, April 2011. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/4-12-11sfp.pdf

[7] Ibid at 7.

[8] Legislative Fiscal Note: http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2014/Bills/S3000/2784_E1.PDF

[9] Legislative Fiscal Note: http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/A0500/12_E3.PDF

[10] Analysis using Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy microsimulation, using 2016 incomes. The analysis is targeted to tax impacts for New Jersey residents only using an estimate that non-residents pay 20 percent of New Jersey sales taxes.

Modernizing New Jersey’s Sales Tax Will Level the Playing Field and Help the Economy Thrive

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


Strengthening New Jersey’s ability to compete in the 21st century economy requires updates to a sales tax code that was designed and implemented before the rise of online shopping and a service-oriented economy.

New Jersey can modernize its sales tax and raise revenue required to invest in public services by:

  • Broadening the tax base to include more services
  • Adopting a remote sales tax law
  • Closing the online hotel tax loophole
  • Repealing the yacht sales tax
  • Last but not least, returning the tax rate to 7 percent

 

Like nearly all other states, New Jersey levies a sales tax on consumers purchasing goods and services at the retail level. The sales tax brings in more than $9 billion a year, making up a little over 25 percent of state revenues, making it a critical source for funding higher education, health care, public safety and other important public services required for a thriving state economy. About 20 percent of New Jersey’s sales tax revenue comes from non-residents.

Examples of taxable items in New Jersey include cars, furniture and meals in restaurants. Taxable services include snow removal and lawn maintenance, auto repair and cable and internet services. Exempt from the sales tax are goods and services like groceries, clothing, certain professional services and real estate sales. Although New Jersey does not allow local governments to levy general sales taxes, there are a few exceptions in place to mostly help tourism thrive in a handful of shore towns and support economic development in Atlantic City.

The general sales tax is added as a percentage of the purchase price.[1] Sellers add the tax to the purchase price, collect the tax from the buyer at the time of sale and then periodically submit the revenue to the state treasury. The current rate is 6.625 percent, the fifth highest among states that levy a sales tax (California has the highest state-level rate, at 7.25 percent). But because other states permit municipalities to levy a local sales tax, New Jersey’s rate is actually lower than that of nearby metro areas. New York City’s combined sales tax rate, for example, is 8.875 percent. Philadelphia’s combined rate is 8 percent.

Because so many everyday items are taxed, just about everyone in the state pays the sales tax. But the sales tax is regressive, meaning that low-income shoppers spend a larger share of their income on the sales tax then everyone else. The bottom 20 percent of New Jersey families pay 5.5 percent of their average annual incomes to sales and excise taxes (this includes fuel taxes, which aren’t directly addressed in this report), while middle-income families pay 3.2 percent and the wealthiest 1 percent of families pay just 0.7 percent. However, keeping grocery items and clothing tax-free does help make New Jersey’s sales tax less regressive than other states’ sales taxes. In fact, the gap between the average share of income paid to sales and excise taxes by the bottom 20 percent of families and the top 1 percent in New Jersey is the 10th smallest of all states.

On the whole, the sales tax has been a reliable source of revenue for New Jersey, making up over 25 percent of New Jersey’s revenues in nearly every year since 2000 (with the exception of 2005 and 2006). But the 2016 cut to the sales tax will put a dent in collections. Lawmakers ought to reform New Jersey’s sales tax with three priorities in mind: modernizing it, making it fairer and ensuring it raises adequate revenue to spur public investments.

Broaden the Sales Tax to Include More Services

The nature of New Jersey’s economy has changed dramatically since the sales tax was first introduced in 1966. At that time, industries producing goods accounted for more than a third of the national gross domestic product (GDP). By 2016, the manufacturing sector was down to 18 percent of the economy, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the services industry grew from half of GDP to more than two-thirds during that same 50-year period.

Things like cell phones, internet, cable TV, health clubs, tanning salons and lawn maintenance are common services people pay for today that were not as widespread a few decades ago. As services become an ever-more important fixture of the state economy, policymakers ought to be taxing more of them.

The services subject to New Jersey’s sales tax were last updated in 2006. These changes a dozen years ago led to the taxation of services like computer software, floor covering installation, delivery charges, some landscaping services, storage units, health club memberships, tanning salons, massage services and tattoo parlors. At the time, the state estimated the sales tax reform would generate over $400 million in new annual revenue.[2] In its first year, it did just that, bringing in $427 million, a 5 percent increase in sales receipts.

As services become an even larger part of household spending, New Jersey’s sales tax must adjust and adapt. The taxation of services also allows state policymakers to fold them into the sales tax code with a focus on high-end services to make the tax code fairer. These include professional services like accounting and bookkeeping and those provided by architects, attorneys and engineers as well as services that are predominantly utilized by upper-income households like investment counseling, interior decorating, private club membership fees, chartered flights, horse training and dry-cleaning services. (See Appendix for an expanded list of exempt services.) In addition, policymakers need to reverse course on legislation passed last year that dropped the sales tax on limousine services.

Levying sales taxes on more services would make New Jersey’s tax systems not only fairer but would help to create a more stable tax base over the long term and may help reduce the year-to-year volatility of sales tax collections. Finally, expanding the sales tax to include more services could generate a substantial amount of revenue to help the state maintain funding of important investments like higher education, public safety, mass transit and other vital services.

Adopt a Remote Sales Tax Law

In 2012 New Jersey negotiated an agreement with Amazon to force the online retail giant to collect sales tax from Garden State consumers. It was an important step, but more action on remote sales to New Jersey shoppers is needed.

Federal law prevents states from collecting sales tax from out-of-state retailers that don’t have a physical presence in the state. Nonetheless, online and catalog shoppers that live in states that charge a sales tax are still legally obligated to pay the tax on purchases directly to the state government. Most people, of course, are not aware of this obligation and many of those who are, willfully ignore the law. This lack of compliance, while common, undermines states’ ability to collect sales tax on internet, catalog and other remote sales and puts local businesses owners who must charge sales tax on every purchase at a severe disadvantage. Without the authority to require out-of-state sellers to collect and submit sales taxes, states have lost more than $10 billion in lost annual revenue to online shopping alone.[3]

A federal solution to this problem would be ideal, but without a federal fix there is one avenue that could empower New Jersey to collect sales tax on remote sales and protect local businesses from unfair competition. An innovative disclosure law enacted in Colorado in 2016 requires remote retailers to remind customers that they likely owe sales tax on their purchases.[4] It also requires remote retailers to report some purchaser information to the state which it can use to seek payment of unpaid taxes on “big-ticket” items.[5]

Specifically, the law requires that out-of-state sellers notify their customers on the online “shopping cart” summary page that they may owe sales tax on what they bought. The seller then must mail a statement to their customers each year with a summary of the dollar amounts and nature of their purchases made the previous year and a reminder of their sales tax obligations. Finally, a document listing each customer’s total annual dollar amount of purchases must be provided by the remote seller to the state revenue department. This notification allows the state to selectively collect owed sales tax from customers who made large online purchases.

A more comprehensive and efficient solution to taxing remote purchases would be federal legislation authorizing states to require all remote sellers to charge sales tax in exchange for a simplified sales tax code. But until that happens, New Jersey should do what it can to ensure that its online shoppers are paying their fair share of sales tax, giving small in-state businesses a level playing field and providing the revenue needed to fund vital services and invest in things like education, infrastructure and health care.

Close the Online Travel Loophole and Tax Airbnb Bookings

Right now online travel companies like Expedia, Orbitz and Priceline can avoid collecting all the applicable sales tax on hotel room bookings even though New Jersey collects the tax when travel agents or travelers themselves book the same room. This loophole is not uncommon and costs states between $275 million and $400 million in combined annual revenue.[6]

Here is how the loophole works: online travel companies do collect taxes on applicable sales and lodging taxes but only on the wholesale room rate they pay hotels for the right to rent the rooms, not the higher retail room rate they actually charge renters. They argue that this practice fulfills their tax collecting obligation. However, state routinely tax the full retail price charged to customers for other types of sales found on online travel websites.

To ensure that the full retail room charge is taxed when the room is booked online, New Jersey needs to modernize its law which was written before the advent of the online booking industry. Closing this loophole could generate between $8 million and $12 million more in annual sales tax revenue based on 2010 data.[7]

Similarly, short-term rental marketplaces like Airbnb should also be collecting sales tax. In 2016, over 6,000 New Jersey homeowners rented out rooms or homes on Airbnb to over a quarter of a million people, generating $50 million in income. Last year the legislature passed a bill to include a sales tax plus an occupancy tax to these informal online bookings. Despite support from the business community and Airbnb itself, Gov. Christie vetoed the bill. It was estimated that the bill would generate more than $6 million in sales tax revenue and help to level the playing field for New Jersey’s lodging industry.

Reverse the Tax Break for Yacht and Boat Buyers

In 2016, New Jersey cut the sales tax on boats and other vessels sold in the state in half and capped the sales tax on boats at $20,000 – meaning that buyers of the most expensive boats are receiving even larger tax breaks. For example, an 80-foot yacht in the $5 million range used to be subject to a $350,000 sales tax. That same luxury boat is now subject to just $20,000 in sales tax – a 94 percent tax cut. The special and unnecessary exemption for boaters is estimated to cost the state between $8 million and $15 million in annual revenue.[8]

At a time when the state has not increased funding for TANF for over 30 years, it certainly sends the wrong message to provide such tax breaks for those who need it the least. This 2015 sales tax cut should be reversed.

Return the Sales Tax Rate to 7 Percent

Last but not least, lawmakers need to reverse the gimmicky 2016 reduction in the sales tax rate, which has put very little extra cash in the pockets of most New Jersey working families but has blown a large hole in the state’s budget.

Under the tax cut, which was part of a larger deal to secure long-overdue transportation infrastructure funding, New Jersey’s sales tax dropped from 7 percent to 6.625 percent, where it stands today. The cost of this cut is about $600 million a year and growing (by 2026, for example, it’s expected to be $735 million).[9]

That kind of revenue loss is a huge blow to the state, but because the cost is spread across so many purchases and so many families, it barely registers in the pocketbooks of everyday New Jerseyans. Even the wealthiest 1 percent of families only save an average of $14 a week, while those in the bottom 20 percent earning less than $25,000 will see savings of less than a buck a week. New Jerseyans in the middle 20 percent (household incomes between $49,000 and $79,000) get an average tax cut of $1.65 a week.[10]

Appendix: Services Exempt from New Jersey Sales Tax

Endnotes

[1] New Jersey also levies an excise tax on specific items, including gasoline, alcohol and tobacco.

[2] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Expanding Sales Taxation of Services: Options and Issues, July 2009. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/8-10-09sfp.pdf

[3] Bruce, Fox and Luna in Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, States Should Adopt a Version of Colorado’s Remote Sales Tax Law, August 2017. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/8-3-17sfp.pdf

[4] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, States Should Adopt a Version of Colorado’s Remote Sales Tax Law, August 2017. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/8-3-17sfp.pdf

[5] Only seven states (Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Vermont and Washington) have enacted some type of sales tax notification and reporting law. However, most are inferior to Colorado’s law and none are as comprehensive as the Multistate Tax Commission’s draft model law.

[6] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, State and Local Governments Should Close Online Hotel Tax Loophole and Collect Taxes Owed, April 2011. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/4-12-11sfp.pdf

[7] Ibid at 7.

[8] Legislative Fiscal Note: http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2014/Bills/S3000/2784_E1.PDF

[9] Legislative Fiscal Note: http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/A0500/12_E3.PDF

[10] Analysis using Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy microsimulation, using 2016 incomes. The analysis is targeted to tax impacts for New Jersey residents only using an estimate that non-residents pay 20 percent of New Jersey sales taxes.

A Grain of ‘SALT’: New Jersey Needs More Than Workarounds to Respond to GOP Tax Plan

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


SALT ‘fixes’ would mostly help the state’s most well-off; plans to make state income tax fairer should move forward

The GOP tax plan is now law, and states are grappling with how the enormous federal tax cuts will play out for their residents. The plan delivers lopsided cuts to the wealthiest Americans and large corporations while teeing up deep and devastating budget cuts that would harm working families across New Jersey. But despite the grave threat to progress and opportunity this tax law presents, New Jersey lawmakers seem most concerned about a relatively narrow provision of the plan: the new federal limit on the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT). Households that itemize deductions are now only allowed to deduct up to $10,000 in combined SALT when calculating their taxable income for federal taxes.

While “workarounds” are under discussion to evade the cap – including shifting the state income tax to a payroll tax[1] or attempting to treat property tax payments as charitable donations[2] – lawmakers have also voiced concern about advancing long-held plans to make the state’s income tax fairer while raising hundreds of millions of dollars for schools and property tax relief.[3]

There’s no reason not to try to design workarounds that restructure the state tax code to help New Jersey taxpayers avoid the federal cap on SALT deductions, but these workarounds should not be the primary focus of lawmakers concerned about the well-being of the state’s middle-class and working families. That’s because these workarounds would disproportionately benefit the wealthiest households in New Jersey, to make no mention of the fact that the Trump administration is unlikely to allow them to stand.

  • The wealthiest 1 percent of families (those with annual incomes over $1.1 million) would receive 54 percent of the benefit from a SALT workaround. Nearly every family in the top 1 percent – 99.9 percent of them, in fact – would benefit, with an average tax cut of $79,460 a year, or 2.5 percent of their average incomes.
  • The bottom 80 percent of families (those with annual incomes under $142,000) would receive less than 1 percent of the benefit from such a policy. Just 10 percent of these families would benefit at all, and their average tax cut would be $75 a year, or less than 0.1 percent of their average incomes.

To the extent that lawmakers ought to be considering these SALT workarounds, they should be doing so only as part of a comprehensive package responding to the federal tax plan – one that includes proposals to raise revenue from the corporations and wealthy interests who will most benefit from the federal plan. At the very least, shying away from bold tax policy – as suggested by some legislative leaders – should not be part of the equation.

The truth is New Jersey’s highest-income households – those with annual incomes over $1 million – get a windfall from the new tax plan, even with the new limit on SALT deductibility. That’s because for New Jersey’s wealthiest families, the average federal tax cuts from other changes in the law are notably larger than the average size of the impact from the loss of SALT deductibility.

Specifically, the long-term benefit of slashing the corporate rate nearly in half will overwhelmingly go to wealthy stockholders rather than the average worker.[4] Eighty percent of the value of the total stock market is concentrated at the top while fewer than half of all Americans own any stock. Further, the big tax cuts for corporations are permanent, while nearly all the smaller tax cuts and changes for individuals and families are temporary – making the overall impact of the GOP tax plan even more favorable to New Jersey’s wealthiest families than this fact sheet illustrates (since it uses 2019 impact data).

Households with incomes over $1 million – with a projected average income of $2.6 million in 2019 – will receive a combined $1.4 billion tax cut with an average tax cut of $27,300 per household, even with the SALT deduction limits factored in.

Given this windfall for the state’s wealthiest families and the state’s precarious fiscal condition there is no reason for legislative leaders to back off of long-held plans to make New Jersey’s income tax fairer and raise much-needed new revenue to invest in schools and property tax relief.

In fact, under a proposed overhaul of New Jersey’s income tax that would, in all, raise over $1 billion in new revenue while increasing taxes on only the 5 percent of highest-income families,[5] households with $1 million or more in taxable income would be paying an average of $22,000, more a year in New Jersey taxes. And under the decidedly less bold plan to raise the top tax rate to 10.75 percent on incomes over $1 million, households with $1 million or more in taxable income would be paying an average of $17,600 more a year in New Jersey taxes. Either way, these millionaire households would still come out well ahead from the combined effect of the federal tax plan and a state income tax increase.[6]

What’s more, these families at the top of New Jersey’s income brackets are already paying the lowest share of their annual average income to state and local taxes in the state (7.1 percent versus 9.1 percent for middle-income families and 10.7 percent for the lowest income quintile).[7] And they have also enjoyed over $4 billion in cumulative tax cuts since 2010, at a time when these households have reaped the overwhelming majority of any economic gains in the state.


Endnotes

[1] New York State Department of Taxation and Finance, Preliminary Report on the Federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, January 2018.

[2] Congressman Josh Gottheimer, Gottheimer, Murphy Offer Tax Cut Plan, January 2018.

[3] See, for example, New York Times, Democrats in High-Tax States Plot to Blunt Impact of New Tax Law, December 2017.

[4] Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), Modeling the Distribution of Taxes on Business Income, JCX-14-13, October 2013.

[5] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Reforming New Jersey’s Income Tax Would Help Build Shared Prosperity, September 2017.

[6] Federal tax plan changes affecting individuals are modeled using ITEP’s microsimulation tax model, which generates tax estimates for a sample of representative taxpayer records in each state. For more information about the model, visit https://itep.org/itep-tax-model-simple/

[7] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, Who Pays: A Distributional Analysis of the Tax Systems in All Fifty States (2015 edition).