Raising the Minimum Wage to $15 is Critical to Growing New Jersey’s Economy

Increasing the minimum wage will boost the take home pay of over 1 million workers – but not if the Legislature stalls

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


Increasing New Jersey’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2023 would boost the incomes of over 1 million workers and inject $3.9 billion into the state’s economy.[1] Raising the wage for all workers without significant delay is critically important to improving the economic conditions of families, businesses, and the state at large. While many believe that the state’s economy is stronger due to the reduced rate of unemployment – which has finally dropped below pre-recession levels – poverty still remains concerningly high, signaling a wage problem for low-income workers who aren’t paid enough to purchase their basic day-to-day needs.

Considering that lawmakers passed $15 minimum wage legislation that was inclusive of all workers in 2016, it is surprising and disappointing to see that – eight months into a new administration that supports raising the wage for all – a bill still hasn’t been introduced. There have been murmurs of extending the phase-in period beyond five years, leaving the tipped wage at its current paltry level of $2.13 per hour, and dividing the working class by excluding youth, seasonal, and farm workers from the increase. In an age where the federal government is actively attacking the economic security of the working class, it would be a terrible mistake for lawmakers to raise the wage but leave behind some of the state’s most vulnerable workers.

New Jersey’s recovery from the Great Recession has been one of the slowest and least robust in the nation. As we move further away from that economic crisis, it has become clear that even though the economy shows signs of increasing strength – unemployment levels lower than pre-recession levels, a booming stock market, and healthy GDP growth – the gains of the recovery have been funneled almost exclusively to the already wealthy and well-to-do. Wages have remained stagnant and low- and middle-income families continue to struggle to get by.

A recent survey by the Federal Reserve found that 40 percent of Americans cannot afford– or would have to sell possessions to cover the cost of – a surprise $400 expense. One in five adults say they can’t pay all of their current monthly bills. More than one in four adults report that they’ve forgone important medical care because they can’t afford it.[2] With such a significant share of the workforce still suffering from economic insecurity on a daily basis, it should be no surprise to anyone that inequality continues to grow as our economy lags behind the rest of the country. One can assume that the problem is broader and deeper in high-cost New Jersey.

Contrary to popular belief, the slow growth in wages and the consistent presence of higher poverty levels also has implications for the business community. Oftentimes, businesses don’t see low wages as a problem that hurts them, but the reality is that our economy is consumer-driven, meaning it relies on consumers (i.e. workers) being able to fulfill their demands and needs. When consumers don’t have the disposable income necessary to be full participants in the economy, that hurts businesses who are deprived of would-be customers.

Taking all of this into consideration, lawmakers should prioritize raising the minimum wage for all workers, and soon. When accounting for the cost of living, New Jersey’s $8.60 minimum wage falls $18.38 short of a living wage, ranking 5th worst in the country.[3] The longer this increase is delayed, the more the value of a $15 hourly wage erodes away and becomes insufficient to address the harmful issues it is meant to. Making sure that the most vulnerable workers in the Garden State are being paid a fair wage for their labor is critical to reducing poverty, reversing growing levels of income inequality, and strengthening our economy.

Opting to leave behind any portion of the workforce – as has been discussed recently by legislators in both houses – is unnecessary and cruel, and doing so fails to make our state stronger or fairer for those who suffer the most every single day. Coming to this conclusion isn’t difficult, all it requires is looking at the facts.

Poverty and Inequality Persist Amidst a Sluggish Recovery

While it is true that unemployment has dropped significantly in recent years – lowering to 5.3 percent in 2017 from 6 percent in 2016 and a high of 10.9 percent in 2011 – poverty rates are higher than they were before the recession. The official poverty rate in 2017 was 10 percent, up from 8.6 percent in 2007 and representing about 143,000 more people. However, considering the high cost of living in New Jersey, the 200 percent federal poverty level provides a more accurate picture of economic insecurity in our state.[4] Looking at this metric, the poverty rate in 2017 was a staggering 22.89 percent, up from 20.89 percent in 2007 and representing about 245,000 more people.

It is not surprising to see poverty remain higher as unemployment decreases considering the minimum wage is far below a livable wage. The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) has a useful tool called the “Family Budget Calculator” which helps measure the income a family needs “in order to attain a modest yet adequate standard of living.” The family budgets that the EPI calculator analyzes consists of seven areas: housing, food, transportation, child care, health care, taxes, and “other necessities” which includes things like clothes, basic household items, and school supplies.

According to EPI’s analysis there is no part of the state where a worker can reliably make ends meet on less than $15 per hour, not even a single adult with no children. For this type of worker, Camden county requires the lowest earnings at $17.84 per hour. Hunterdon County requires the highest earnings at $22.72 per hour. For families with two adults and one child, each parent would have to earn $17.32 per hour in Camden county and $22.26 per hour in Hunterdon County working full time.[5] Looking at the current minimum wage of $8.60, minimum wage workers in each county are earning less than half of what it takes to safely and reliably make ends meet.

As long as a significant portion of New Jersey’s workforce is unable to provide for themselves and their families, the state’s economy will continue to experience widening levels of inequality and sluggish economic growth. Fixing this problem is possible, but only if an increase in the minimum wage to $15 that is fully phased in by 2023 and includes all workers is enacted before the end of the year.

 

Raising the Wage Would Help a Diverse Array of Workers – Further Carve Outs Should Be Avoided and Youth, Farm and Tipped Workers Must Be Included

The number of workers who will benefit from increasing the minimum wage to $15 depends on how long the phase-in takes, but we reasonably assume that lawmakers would follow a phase-in schedule similar to the 2016 bill that was vetoed by Governor Christie. As such, we assume that the minimum wage would be increased to $10.10 an hour in the first step, on January 1, 2019, with four annual $1.25 increases to follow, bringing New Jersey’s minimum wage to $15.10 an hour by 2023.

Increasing the minimum wage to $15 by 2023 would result in a $3.9 billion raise for approximately 1,047,000 workers, representing 26.3 percent of the state’s total workforce. Of that group about 792,000 would be directly affected, meaning they currently make less than $14.53 (the current dollar equivalent of $15.10 in 2023). Another 256,000 would be indirectly affected, meaning they make slightly more than the new minimum and would likely see their pay also increase.

Of those who would benefit, 57.3 percent are women, 57.2 percent are people of color, 94 percent are adults, 29.2 percent have children, 49.7 percent have attended or graduated from college, and 64.3 percent are working full time.

Most of the New Jersey workers who would benefit from increasing the minimum wage to $15 are in the retail, health care, and food service industries.

 

Existing Exemptions in New Jersey’s Minimum Wage Law

Lawmakers are currently considering carving out youth, farm, and tipped workers from the minimum wage increase. Doing so would be misguided and actively harm these workers, preventing them from earning more for their work and becoming more economically secure. With regard to carve outs, there is a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding on what the current landscape is. There are already several carve outs that exist in New Jersey’s minimum wage law – for youth workers, employees at summer camps, college students, interns, school-to-work programs, tipped workers and farm workers:

  • Youth workers (under 18) are currently exempt from the state wage and hour law (see 12:56-3.2). However, the law provides a number of sectors where youth workers are explicitly included in the state minimum wage. Sectors where youth workers are explicitly included in the state minimum wage are: Mercantile occupations (12:57-3); Beauty culture occupations (12:57-4); Laundry, cleaning, and dyeing occupations (12:57-5); Light manufacturing and apparel occupations (12:57-6).
  • Employees of summer camps, which often includes many youth workers, are explicitly excluded from the state minimum wage. The minimum wage law is not applicable, “during the months of June, July, August or September of the year to summer camps, conferences and retreats operated by any nonprofit or religious corporation or association,” (34.11-56a4.1).
  • Concerning college students and interns, full time students employed by their university or college through a work study program may be paid 85% of the state’s minimum wage (12:56-3.2).
  • Interns or participants in “school-to-work” programs, regardless of age, may be excluded from the minimum wage. However, wage and hour regulations provide specific guidelines that must be followed to ensure that education is the primary objective of the position and that any productive labor is incidental to those educational goals (12:56-18).
  • Farm workers are currently required to be paid the state minimum wage, but they are not required to be paid overtime for any work over 40 hours per week, including piece work (34:11-5614).

Including as many workers as possible in the minimum wage increase is important to ensure that the most vulnerable workers in the state are better able to make ends meet. It would be wonderful to see lawmakers remove the carve outs that already exist but, at the very worst, they should not add to them.

Youth Workers

Carving out youth workers from a minimum wage increase is bad policy that unnecessarily puts teens at increased risk for poverty and other issues that come with economic insecurity.[6] Of all the workers that would benefit from increasing the minimum wage to $15 by 2023, six percent are under the age of 20, equaling 63,355 total teen workers.

There’s a common stereotype that young workers are simply using their earnings to pay for video games and movie tickets, but that couldn’t be further from the truth for many who are seriously contributing to their family’s income. For teen workers who come from families that earn less than $50,000 per year, they contribute over $9,300 on average, or 18.6 percent. For families of color, teen workers contribute over $9,600 on average, or 19.3 percent.[7] That’s a significant amount and it shouldn’t be discounted. Especially considering that many teen workers in low-income families are saving for the cost of college to help avoid student loans, it would be callous to carve them out from the increase to $15 per hour.

Proposing to carve out teen workers isn’t just a bad idea when you look at the facts, it would also be hypocritical for New Jersey to do so. Just this year, the state passed an equal pay amendment that required women and men to be paid the same amount of money for similar work. To say that pay discrimination against women isn’t ok but pay discrimination against teen workers is would be incredibly hypocritical. Either work is work that should be valued no matter who does it or it isn’t. Lawmakers have already stated that they want to stamp out pay discrimination and they should extend that value to all workers, including teens.

Farm Workers

Some of the most vulnerable workers in the state are farm workers. They are generally people of color and immigrants who perform demanding, physical labor in difficult conditions. Simply put, farm workers are some of the workers that inspired the Fight for $15 movement due to the low wages they earn. Historically, New Jersey has never carved out farm workers from a minimum wage increase before, and to do so now would be an incredible mistake.

An analysis by Professor Michael Reich – an economist and chair of the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California, Berkeley – found that New Jersey’s farm workers would benefit to the tune of a 20 percent increase in annual income.

Many have argued that farm workers must be carved out so that New Jersey can remain competitive in agricultural industries, believing that otherwise the state’s farms would be put at risk of closure. The analysis produced by Professor Reich shows that this opinion is false, concluding that food and produce prices wouldn’t have to increase significantly in order for farms to afford the rise in the minimum wage for their workers. Including farm workers in the increase would result in the price of a package of blueberries increasing just three cents a year annually. That is an incredibly insignificant change that is absolutely worth it to make sure farm workers can be included in the wage increase so they can better meet their needs and provide for their families.

Tipped Workers

New Jersey currently has about 193,000 tipped workers, of whom about 78,000 are waiters or bar staff and all of whom would benefit from increasing the tipped wage which is currently set at the federal level of $2.13 per hour.[8] If a worker doesn’t make the $6.47 in tips necessary to bring them to the state’s $8.60 an hour minimum wage, their employer is required to make up the shortfall – what is known as a “tip credit.” If an employee doesn’t earn enough in tips to make up the difference, the onus is unfortunately on them to ask their employer to bridge the gap – something that many tipped workers are hesitant to do for fear they could risk their job. There is significant evidence to show that tipped workers suffer from higher rates of wage theft than other workers.[9]

The federal $2.13 tipped wage has remained constant since 1991. Over those 27 years, its value has eroded by 46 percent to a value of just $1.15 in 1991 inflation-adjusted dollars, meaning it would have to be $3.94 in 2018 inflation-adjusted dollars to keep up with 1991’s purchasing power.

The gap between New Jersey’s tipped wage of $2.13 and minimum wage of $8.60 is already one of the largest in the country. To increase the minimum wage to $15 without increasing or completely phasing out the tipped wage would only make that gap larger and invite an increase in instances of wage theft.

Phasing out the tipped minimum wage would be smart policy for New Jersey to pursue. First, it would simplify regulations that owners of tipped businesses have to implement by eliminating the need to calculate wages owed to make up the gap between the tipped wage and the minimum wage. Second, it would make a tip a tip again. Tips would no longer serve as the primary source of income for workers, but represent a slight bonus awarded by the consumer for exceptional service. Besides, seven states – including the entire west coast of the United States – no longer have a tipped wage.[10] Alaska, California, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington have all decided that workers in traditional tipped industries should make at least the minimum wage like every other worker and, despite opposition claims to the contrary, their restaurant and food cultures haven’t become a wasteland of nothing but chain restaurants like Chili’s and Applebee’s.

Getting rid of the tipped wage would have the added benefit of reducing incidents of sexual harassment that female workers face in particular.[11] Because tipped workers are forced to rely on tips to make up the majority of their pay, they end up having to answer whatever whims – fair or otherwise – that customers or their bosses may want. The power dynamics present in these situations put the worker at a disadvantage, and many customers and owners fully exploit it. Phasing out the tipped wage would do away with those power dynamics and let workers focus on their jobs.

 

The Importance of $15 by 2023 – Further Delay Erodes Purchasing Power

The idea of a $15 minimum wage was introduced four years ago in 2014. Since then, the value of a $15 minimum wage has eroded significantly – $15 in 2014 is worth just $14.08 in 2018. If the original bill had been signed into law when it passed, the state would have reached a $15 minimum wage by 2019. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen, leaving low-wage workers in a lurch. Following recent remarks from legislative leaders that this issue may bleed over into 2019, there is real concern that by the time the wage gets to $15, it won’t be nearly as valuable to low-wage workers as intended.

If the same bill that the legislature passed in 2016 were to be signed this year to take effect in 2019, we would be looking at a scenario where the minimum wage doesn’t reach $15 until 2023. Due to inflation, the delay of 5 years – reaching $15 in 2023 instead of 2019 – adds up to a loss of about 6.5 percent in purchasing power for low-wage workers. In other words, $15 in 2019 would only be worth about $14.02 in 2023, reducing the amount of real income low-wage workers would receive as a result of the policy change from $31,200 a year to $29,161. That’s a loss of over $2,000 in annual earnings for workers and families where every dollar is absolutely critical, and that hurts businesses that are losing out on profits from customers who would have spent that $2,000 locally and immediately. It’s worth noting that these projections don’t take into account changes in current national trade and economic policy that could lead to an increase in inflation, which would result in the value of $15 eroding even further.

If lawmakers hold off passing the $15 minimum wage legislation this year, the erosion from inflation will only significantly reduce what workers ultimately take home. To avoid that affect, it’s worth considering either reducing the phase-in period from 5 years to 4 years or less, or increasing the wage level beyond $15 to make up for lost time, or some combination of the two. The bottom line is that getting to $15 after 2023 dilutes the positive impact of the policy so significantly that simply tying wage increases to inflation after 2023 would be insufficient. Raising the wage to $15 by 2024 – eight years after the Christie veto– and claiming it will address issues of income inequality and poverty would be a dire mistake and a false promise.

 

While New Jersey Waits, States and Cities Across the Nation Make Progress

In recent years, several states and cities have passed $15 minimum wage legislation in response to the difficult and damaging economic realities that their residents are facing. Seattle voted to increase the wage to $15 in 2014, with the phase-in culminating in 2021 for all workers – employees at large companies started receiving $15 in 2017.[12] Los Angeles voted for its increase in 2015, with all workers receiving $15 by 2020.[13]

In 2016, California passed legislation that would see the state get to $15 by 2022.[14] In the same year, New York signed into law a bill that would increase the wage to $15 for all workers across all industries by approximately 2023 – large business in Manhattan had to get to $15 by 2018 and most workers will reach $15 by 2021.[15]

There are several more places that have voted to increase their wages, but the latest example is Massachusetts, which earlier this year became the third state to vote for a $15 minimum wage.[16] The Bay State opted to get to $15 by 2023, and in doing so included youth workers and increased the tipped wage from 30 percent of the state minimum to 45 percent. It is important to mention that while many view minimum wage increases as a campaign important only to Democrats, the Governor of Massachusetts is a Republican. For their legislation to get to $15 by 2023 and do so without carving out vulnerable workers goes to show that people of all political stripes can understand and support the need for all workers to benefit from this important policy change.

New Jersey is often compared to New York, Massachusetts, and California due to the characteristics we share of being a high-cost state but also having a highly educated workforce, median household income on the upper end of the spectrum, and a diverse population that benefits from vibrant immigrant communities. While New Jersey continues to drag its feet on raising the minimum wage, our contemporaries are moving forward with strength and taking the steps necessary to improve their economies for all of their workers, residents, and businesses.

Beyond economic considerations, there’s significant research to show that increasing the minimum wage helps lead to reductions in recidivism,[17] reductions in domestic violence and child abuse,[18] and reductions in teen pregnancy rates.[19] It is an important determinant of health outcomes and the American Public Health Association notes that income shapes one’s access to other important determinants of health like housing, education, and employment opportunities.[20]

Worries about job losses are belied not only by our own recorded history – when New Jersey last increased the minimum wage through the ballot in 2013 opponents said we’d lose 30,000 jobs[21] and instead we gained 90,000[22] – but also the experiences of business owners in states that have already increased their wage to $15.

Take for instance the story of Tom Douglas, a notable restaurateur in Seattle who owned 15 restaurants prior to the increase and strongly opposed the change, predicting that he would “lose maybe a quarter” of his restaurants in the city. Fast forward to post-increase, more restaurants were opening in the city than in previous years[23] and Douglas himself recanted his previous position as he not only didn’t have to close any restaurants but ended up opening a few new ones. There’s the California fast food CEO who, much like Douglas, thought the increase to $15 would destroy his business but now says it has provided an important boost.[24]

And rigorous research continues to show that increasing the minimum wage is good policy. A new report by the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California, Berkeley, examined the effect of minimum wage increases in six cities – Chicago, Washington, D.C., Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle – and found stronger private sector growth than comparable economies along with no significant negative effect on employment.[25] There’s also a recent report by the U.S. Census Bureau which, looking at 20 years of government- collected data, finds that raising the minimum wage increases worker earnings over the short and long-term without significant declines in employment.[26]

At the end of the day, there are simply too much data and recorded experiences showing that increasing the minimum wage works. For New Jersey to continue to delay action at this point would require ignoring what we know to be true and opting to believe rhetoric and myth over fact and rigorous research. We’ve already suffered significant setbacks, being one of the last states to emerge from the Great Recession, and our economy continues to struggle with poverty rates that are higher than they should be at this stage in our recovery. If we continue to talk about “next year” for increasing the minimum wage to $15, we’ll be left in the dust with no one to blame but ourselves yet again.

The opportunity in front of us is clear – raising the wage will benefit over a million workers, help businesses by providing them with more consumers who can purchase the services and products they offer, and improve the local economy in communities all across the state. There is no reason to hesitate any further, it is time to do what we know is both the right and smart thing to do. It’s time to pass and sign legislation that raises the minimum wage to $15 for all workers, and the time to do it is now.


 

Endnotes

[1] Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata (2017) and CBO Economic Projections (January 2016)

[2] Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 2018. https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2017-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201805.pdf

[3] NJPP Analysis of data from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Living Wage Calculator

[4] The official poverty rate – 100% FPL – registers at an annual income of $24,600 for a family of four. In a high cost state like New Jersey, it makes no sense to limit real poverty to such a low level of income.200% FPL is more appropriate and registers at an annual income of $49,200 for a family of four.

[5] Economic Policy Institute, March 2018. Budgets are in 2017 dollars.

[6] National Employment Law Project, Excluding Young New Jersey Workers From A $15 Minimum Wage Is Bad Policy, September 2018. https://www.nelp.org/publication/excluding-young-new-jersey-workers-15-minimum-wage-bad-policy/

[7] National Employment Law Project analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, 2012-2016

[8] National Employment Law Project analysis of May 2017 Occupational Employment Statistics data.

[9] Economic Policy Institute, Twenty-Three Years and Still Waiting for Change, July 2014. https://www.epi.org/publication/waiting-for-change-tipped-minimum-wage/

[10] New Jersey Policy Perspective Raising the Tipped Minimum Wage Would Increase the Economic Security of Many Hard-Working New Jerseyans, July 2014. https://www.njpp.org/reports/raising-the-tipped-minimum-wage-would-increase-the-economic-security-of-many-hard-working-new-jerseyans

[11] Restaurant Opportunities Center United, Better Wages, Better Tips: Restaurants Flourish With One Fair Wage, February 2018. http://rocunited.org/2018/02/new-report-better-wages-better-tips-restaurants-flourish-one-fair-wage/

[12] Office of the Mayor, Seattle, Washington,$15 Minimum Wage. http://murray.seattle.gov/minimumwage/#sthash.wJiTvFbp.dpbs

[13] Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles’ minimum wage on track to go up to $15 by 2020, May 2015. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-minimum-wage-hike-20150518-story.html

[14] The Sacramento Bee, Jerry Brown signs $15 minimum wage in California, April 2016. https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article69842317.html

[15] New York State, Governor Cuomo Signs $15 Minimum Wage Plan and 12 Week Paid Family Leave Policy into Law, April 2016. https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-15-minimum-wage-plan-and-12-week-paid-family-leave-policy-law

[16] National Employment Law Project, Massachusetts Joins New York and California in Adopting $15 Minimum Wage, June 2018. https://www.nelp.org/news-releases/massachusetts-joins-new-york-california-adopting-15-minimum-wage/

[17] Agan, A. Y. and Makowsky, M. D., The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism, January 2018. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3097203

[18] Raissian, K. M., Bullinger, L. R.,Money matters: Does the minimum wage affect child maltreatment rates?, January 2017. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0190740916303139?via%3Dihub#!

[19] Bullinger, L. R., The Effect of Minimum Wages on Adolescent Fertility: A Nationwide Analysis, March 2017. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28103069

[20] American Public Health Association, Improving Health by Increasing the Minimum Wage, November 2016. https://www.apha.org/policies-and-advocacy/public-health-policy-statements/policy-database/2017/01/18/improving-health-by-increasing-minimum-wage

[21] Watchdog, New Jersey’s minimum-wage question poses maximum complexity, October 2013. https://www.watchdog.org/new_jersey/new-jersey-s-minimum-wage-question-poses-maximum-complexity/article_3e1f3a4a-a943-549c-8568-e5639189b72d.html

[22] NJPP analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings, New Jersey, Total Non-Farm, 2013-2015

[23] Puget Sound Business Journal, Apocalypse Not: $15 and the cuts that never came, October 2015. https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/print-edition/2015/10/23/apocolypse-not-15-and-the-cuts-that-never-came.html

[24] KQED News, Fast Food CEO Says Higher Minimum Wage Boosts Business, January 2017. https://www.kqed.org/news/11245110/minimum-wage-goes-up-and-so-does-business-thats-what-this-fast-food-ceo-says-happened

[25] Allegretto, Godoey, Nadler and Reich, The New Wave of Local Minimum Wage Policies: Evidence from Six Cities, September 2018. http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2018/09/The-New-Wave-of-Local-Minimum-Wage-Policies.pdf

[26] Rinz, K., Voorheis, J., The Distributional Effects of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data, March 2018. https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2018/adrm/carra-wp-2018-02.html

Trump's ACA Sabotage: Bad Medicine for New Jersey

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.
For a “By the Numbers” breakdown, click here.


President Trump and the Republican leadership in Congress have caused great harm to New Jersey with their efforts to undermine the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Their systematic sabotage of the health care marketplace has not only affected thousands of New Jerseyans but the economy as well. For the first time since ACA was implemented, there are decreases in both the individual market and Medicaid, which this year amounted to 62,000 fewer New Jerseyans obtaining this coverage.[1] There is also concern that the uninsurance rate in New Jersey may be increasing again. The most recent preliminary national survey found an uninsurance rate of 10.6 percent in 2016 and 11.8 percent in 2017 for ages 18-65 in New Jersey.[2]

The decrease in enrollment this year in the Marketplace and Medicaid has resulted in up to $150 million in lost federal funds in New Jersey which will affect the economy.[3] In addition­­­, 137,000 middle class New Jerseyans who are not eligible for federal premium subsidies in the individual market paid approximately $125 million more for their insurance this year.[4] It is also estimated that there was a decrease of 22 percent in the number of Hispanics who are obtaining plans in the Marketplace due to Trump’s anti-immigrant policies.[5]

ACA Undermined in Almost Every Way Possible by Trump Administration

Congress may have been unsuccessful in their attempts to repeal and replace the ACA, but that hasn’t stopped the Trump administration from taking steps to undermine the landmark health care legislation. While it is difficult to keep track of all the attempts to undermine the ACA, the Trump administration has taken at least eighteen actions to deny health care to New Jerseyans. This includes slashing funding for navigators and advertising even though 35 percent of uninsured adults did not know about the Marketplace last year.[6] The President successfully persuaded Congress to repeal the individual mandate and eliminated cost sharing reduction payments to insurers which contributed to a spike in premiums for middle class New Jerseyans. His administration is also allowing states to sell association and junk insurance plans that do not include essential benefits that are especially needed for people with preexisting conditions. Through the Attorney General’s office, the administration is also urging a Texas court to allow states to charge higher premiums for Americans with pre-existing conditions, and the President wants to nominate a judge to the Supreme Court who would uphold such a decision.

Unprecedented Drop in Individual Market Enrollment

Enrollment in the individual market (which consists of New Jerseyans purchasing their insurance through the federal Marketplace website and those who purchase their plans directly)decreased to 329,000 from 369,000 in 2017, a drop of 39,858 New Jerseyans. This is the first decrease in enrollment since the Marketplace was established, wiping out the last two years of gains. This is especially disturbing as there are an estimated 149,000 New Jerseyans who are currently uninsured and eligible for premium subsidies.[7]

Insurance Has Become Unaffordable for Many Struggling New Jerseyans 

There was a greater decrease in the enrollment rate (14 percent) this year in the off-Marketplace than there was in the Marketplace (9.6 percent) because those New Jerseyans in the off-Marketplace must pay the full cost for their premiums, whereas 80 percent of New Jerseyans in the Marketplace receive federal subsidies.[8] The income limits for subsidies – $48,240 for an individual and $98,400 for a family of four – are modest given New Jersey’s high cost of living, especially with the recent increases in premiums. The full cost of average premiums for the standard plan in the Marketplace increased 19 percent in 2018, which is seven times the average rate of the previous three years of 2.5 percent. Much of that increase was caused by the expected elimination of the individual mandate and cost sharing reduction payments.

The 137,000 New Jerseyans who did not receive subsidies paid, on average, $900 more this year in premiums for a single individual and $3,600 for a family of four compared to the average premium over the last three years.[9] Given that premiums for a family of that size were typically over $20,000 per year before the Trump administration’s sabotage of the ACA, this year’s premium increase simply made insurance unaffordable for many New Jersey families.[10]

Family Enrollment in Medicaid Decreases for the First Time

For the first time since the start of its expansion in 2014, Medicaid enrollment decreased in fiscal year 2018 for parents and children. The sabotage of the Marketplace appears to be at least one of the causes for this decrease. About one quarter of everyone who enrolls in Medicaid does so through the Marketplace even though they can apply directly.[11] Up to 140,000 of these consumers are children and parents who were already eligible for Medicaid before the ACA but were unaware until they applied for assistance in the Marketplace. This exemplifies how cutbacks in outreach and advertisement for the Marketplace also affect Medicaid enrollment.

Before the Trump administration’s efforts to sabotage the ACA, New Jersey had projected an increase in Medicaid enrollment for 2018. Instead, 14,814 fewer residents enrolled between 2018. and 2017. Taking the state’s projections into account, there were 22,290 fewer parents and kids enrolled in 2018 than was expected. As the number of unemployed New Jerseyans has remained largely flat during this period, this decrease cannot be explained by economic factors.[12]

Trumps Anti-Immigrant Policies Suppress Enrollment in Medicaid and the Marketplace  

President Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, federal policies, and proposals have done serious harm to Medicaid enrollment, especially in New Jersey, which has the fourth highest share of unauthorized immigrants in the nation.[13] The Trump administration’s overly aggressive actions to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants and its proposal to deny citizenship to legal immigrants if they or their child are on Medicaid discourages all legal immigrants from applying for Medicaid. This is especially true for undocumented parents who are afraid to enroll their citizen child because they fear the information will be shared with ICE and the parent will be deported. In New Jersey, one in six children have an unauthorized parent.[14] This problem is also leading to anecdotal reports that unauthorized parents are disenrolling their children in Medicaid. In 2016 there were an estimated 150,000 children covered by Medicaid/CHIP who had unauthorized parents.[15]

New Jerseyin Better Position than Most States, but Much More to Do to Achieve Universal Health Coverage

 Looking into the future, New Jersey is ahead of most states in working toward universal, affordable health coverage. New Jersey already has policies in place that prohibit the sale of junk plans, and the state recently enacted legislation that restores the individual mandate and establishes a reinsurance plan that will largely offset the hike in premiums caused by the Trump administration. Governor Murphy is also formulating an outreach plan that will maximize existing state resources, although it is unclear if funding will be restored for community-based organizations to perform the same functions as navigators.

While New Jersey has taken admirable steps to defend against attacks on the ACA, the state and its congressional representatives should not lose sight of the ultimate goal to provide universal health coverage. New Jersey’s uninsured decreased by about a third due to the ACA, but there are still approximately 700,000 New Jerseyans who are uninsured, and this number may be increasing again. It will be critical that the New Jersey’s congressional delegation reverse the Trump administration’s anti-ACA actions and improve the ACA to assist more people with more affordable coverage at all income levels.

New Jersey is limited in its ability to meet this challenge by itself, but there are realistic steps it can take to reduce the uninsured in New Jersey and reversethe Trump sabotage. It can start by passing legislation to fulfill the governor’s promise to cover all the remaining uninsured kids in New Jersey. This is achievable as approximately 95 percent of all children already have health insurance. The state should also consider a state takeover of the Marketplace, so it can extend the open enrollment period and make other improvements as other state Marketplaces have done. In addition, the state will need to vigorously advertise that New Jersey has replaced the federal individual mandate with a state mandate. New Jersey will also need to tackle the biggest challenge of all: how to reduce health costs while maintaining quality and access. Recent state enactment of surprise billing legislation that also eliminates inappropriate out-of-network costs and pending bills to limit prescription drugs are good first steps Over the last six months, New Jersey has been a model for stabilizing the health insurance market, but further bold action will be necessary to combat the Trump administration’s attempts to unravel the ACA.

 


Endnotes

[1] Decrease in enrollment in the individual market is from New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance website and Medicaid enrollment is calculated from the SFY 2018 governor’s budget.

[2] Robin A. Cohen, Ph.D., Emily P. Zammitti, M.P.H., and Michael E. Martinez, M.P.H., M.H.S.A, National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program, Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2017, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/insur201805.pdf

[3] The calculations for the lost Medicaid funding are explained in the table in the report. The lost funding in the Marketplace was calculated by multiplying the average premium subsidy in 2018 by the difference in the marketplace enrolment with subsidies in 2018 and 2017.  See average premiums at Kaiser Family Foundation website at https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/marketplace-average-premiums-and-average-advanced-premium-tax-credit-aptc/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

[4] Calculated by inflating the premium in 2017 in the marketplace by the average increase over the previous three years and comparing that to what was the actual increase in 2018 multiplied by everyone who did not receive a subsidy.

[5] Karina Wagnerman, New Study Finds Evidence of a “Chilling Effect” in 2016 Marketplace Enrollment,July 19, 2018, https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2018/07/19/new-study-finds-evidence-of-a-chilling-effect-in-2016-marketplace-enrollment/

[6] Halley Cloud, In Latest Sabotage Administration Nearly Eliminates Marketplace Enrollment Assistance Funds, July 13, 2018, https://www.cbpp.org/blog/in-latest-aca-sabotage-administration-nearly-eliminates-marketplace-enrollment-assistance-funds

[7] Kaiser Family Foundation, Distribution of Non-Elderly Uninsured Individuals,https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/distribution-of-nonelderly-uninsured-individuals-who-are-ineligible-for-financial-assistance-due-to-income-offer-of-employer-coverage-or-citizenship-status/?dataView=1&currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

[8] Kaiser Family Foundation, Effectuated Marketplace Enrollment and Financial Assistancehttps://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/effectuated-marketplace-enrollment-and-financial-assistance/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

[9] See note 5. Divided total increase in premiums by everyone who did not receive a subsidy.

[10] NJPP analysis of plans in Healthcare.gov for 2018.

[11] DMAHS email responding to OPRA request by NJPP, December 12, 2017. The period is December 2006 to November 2017. Through marketplace: 134,761; Direct: 277,679.

[12] NJ Department of Labor, Major Indicators of Labor Market Activity for New Jersey Seasonally Adjusted 2017 Benchmark, https://www.nj.gov/labor/forms_pdfs/lwdhome/press/2018/20180719UITABLES.pdf

[13] Pew Research Center, U.S. Unauthorized Immigration Population Estimates, November 3, 2016, http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/unauthorized-immigrants/ https://www.njpp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NJPPCoverAllKidsJan2018.pdf

[14] Samantha Artiga, Kaiser Family Foundation, Potential Effects of Public Charge Changes On Health Coverage For Citizen Children, March 2018, https://www.kff.org/disparities-policy/issue-brief/potential-effects-of-public-charge-changes-on-health-coverage-for-citizen-children/

[15] Ibid.

 

Trump’s ACA Sabotage: Bad Medicine for New Jersey

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.
For a “By the Numbers” breakdown, click here.


President Trump and the Republican leadership in Congress have caused great harm to New Jersey with their efforts to undermine the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Their systematic sabotage of the health care marketplace has not only affected thousands of New Jerseyans but the economy as well. For the first time since ACA was implemented, there are decreases in both the individual market and Medicaid, which this year amounted to 62,000 fewer New Jerseyans obtaining this coverage.[1] There is also concern that the uninsurance rate in New Jersey may be increasing again. The most recent preliminary national survey found an uninsurance rate of 10.6 percent in 2016 and 11.8 percent in 2017 for ages 18-65 in New Jersey.[2]

The decrease in enrollment this year in the Marketplace and Medicaid has resulted in up to $150 million in lost federal funds in New Jersey which will affect the economy.[3] In addition­­­, 137,000 middle class New Jerseyans who are not eligible for federal premium subsidies in the individual market paid approximately $125 million more for their insurance this year.[4] It is also estimated that there was a decrease of 22 percent in the number of Hispanics who are obtaining plans in the Marketplace due to Trump’s anti-immigrant policies.[5]

ACA Undermined in Almost Every Way Possible by Trump Administration

Congress may have been unsuccessful in their attempts to repeal and replace the ACA, but that hasn’t stopped the Trump administration from taking steps to undermine the landmark health care legislation. While it is difficult to keep track of all the attempts to undermine the ACA, the Trump administration has taken at least eighteen actions to deny health care to New Jerseyans. This includes slashing funding for navigators and advertising even though 35 percent of uninsured adults did not know about the Marketplace last year.[6] The President successfully persuaded Congress to repeal the individual mandate and eliminated cost sharing reduction payments to insurers which contributed to a spike in premiums for middle class New Jerseyans. His administration is also allowing states to sell association and junk insurance plans that do not include essential benefits that are especially needed for people with preexisting conditions. Through the Attorney General’s office, the administration is also urging a Texas court to allow states to charge higher premiums for Americans with pre-existing conditions, and the President wants to nominate a judge to the Supreme Court who would uphold such a decision.

Unprecedented Drop in Individual Market Enrollment

Enrollment in the individual market (which consists of New Jerseyans purchasing their insurance through the federal Marketplace website and those who purchase their plans directly)decreased to 329,000 from 369,000 in 2017, a drop of 39,858 New Jerseyans. This is the first decrease in enrollment since the Marketplace was established, wiping out the last two years of gains. This is especially disturbing as there are an estimated 149,000 New Jerseyans who are currently uninsured and eligible for premium subsidies.[7]

Insurance Has Become Unaffordable for Many Struggling New Jerseyans 

There was a greater decrease in the enrollment rate (14 percent) this year in the off-Marketplace than there was in the Marketplace (9.6 percent) because those New Jerseyans in the off-Marketplace must pay the full cost for their premiums, whereas 80 percent of New Jerseyans in the Marketplace receive federal subsidies.[8] The income limits for subsidies – $48,240 for an individual and $98,400 for a family of four – are modest given New Jersey’s high cost of living, especially with the recent increases in premiums. The full cost of average premiums for the standard plan in the Marketplace increased 19 percent in 2018, which is seven times the average rate of the previous three years of 2.5 percent. Much of that increase was caused by the expected elimination of the individual mandate and cost sharing reduction payments.

The 137,000 New Jerseyans who did not receive subsidies paid, on average, $900 more this year in premiums for a single individual and $3,600 for a family of four compared to the average premium over the last three years.[9] Given that premiums for a family of that size were typically over $20,000 per year before the Trump administration’s sabotage of the ACA, this year’s premium increase simply made insurance unaffordable for many New Jersey families.[10]

Family Enrollment in Medicaid Decreases for the First Time

For the first time since the start of its expansion in 2014, Medicaid enrollment decreased in fiscal year 2018 for parents and children. The sabotage of the Marketplace appears to be at least one of the causes for this decrease. About one quarter of everyone who enrolls in Medicaid does so through the Marketplace even though they can apply directly.[11] Up to 140,000 of these consumers are children and parents who were already eligible for Medicaid before the ACA but were unaware until they applied for assistance in the Marketplace. This exemplifies how cutbacks in outreach and advertisement for the Marketplace also affect Medicaid enrollment.

Before the Trump administration’s efforts to sabotage the ACA, New Jersey had projected an increase in Medicaid enrollment for 2018. Instead, 14,814 fewer residents enrolled between 2018. and 2017. Taking the state’s projections into account, there were 22,290 fewer parents and kids enrolled in 2018 than was expected. As the number of unemployed New Jerseyans has remained largely flat during this period, this decrease cannot be explained by economic factors.[12]

Trumps Anti-Immigrant Policies Suppress Enrollment in Medicaid and the Marketplace  

President Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, federal policies, and proposals have done serious harm to Medicaid enrollment, especially in New Jersey, which has the fourth highest share of unauthorized immigrants in the nation.[13] The Trump administration’s overly aggressive actions to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants and its proposal to deny citizenship to legal immigrants if they or their child are on Medicaid discourages all legal immigrants from applying for Medicaid. This is especially true for undocumented parents who are afraid to enroll their citizen child because they fear the information will be shared with ICE and the parent will be deported. In New Jersey, one in six children have an unauthorized parent.[14] This problem is also leading to anecdotal reports that unauthorized parents are disenrolling their children in Medicaid. In 2016 there were an estimated 150,000 children covered by Medicaid/CHIP who had unauthorized parents.[15]

New Jerseyin Better Position than Most States, but Much More to Do to Achieve Universal Health Coverage

 Looking into the future, New Jersey is ahead of most states in working toward universal, affordable health coverage. New Jersey already has policies in place that prohibit the sale of junk plans, and the state recently enacted legislation that restores the individual mandate and establishes a reinsurance plan that will largely offset the hike in premiums caused by the Trump administration. Governor Murphy is also formulating an outreach plan that will maximize existing state resources, although it is unclear if funding will be restored for community-based organizations to perform the same functions as navigators.

While New Jersey has taken admirable steps to defend against attacks on the ACA, the state and its congressional representatives should not lose sight of the ultimate goal to provide universal health coverage. New Jersey’s uninsured decreased by about a third due to the ACA, but there are still approximately 700,000 New Jerseyans who are uninsured, and this number may be increasing again. It will be critical that the New Jersey’s congressional delegation reverse the Trump administration’s anti-ACA actions and improve the ACA to assist more people with more affordable coverage at all income levels.

New Jersey is limited in its ability to meet this challenge by itself, but there are realistic steps it can take to reduce the uninsured in New Jersey and reversethe Trump sabotage. It can start by passing legislation to fulfill the governor’s promise to cover all the remaining uninsured kids in New Jersey. This is achievable as approximately 95 percent of all children already have health insurance. The state should also consider a state takeover of the Marketplace, so it can extend the open enrollment period and make other improvements as other state Marketplaces have done. In addition, the state will need to vigorously advertise that New Jersey has replaced the federal individual mandate with a state mandate. New Jersey will also need to tackle the biggest challenge of all: how to reduce health costs while maintaining quality and access. Recent state enactment of surprise billing legislation that also eliminates inappropriate out-of-network costs and pending bills to limit prescription drugs are good first steps Over the last six months, New Jersey has been a model for stabilizing the health insurance market, but further bold action will be necessary to combat the Trump administration’s attempts to unravel the ACA.

 


Endnotes

[1] Decrease in enrollment in the individual market is from New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance website and Medicaid enrollment is calculated from the SFY 2018 governor’s budget.

[2] Robin A. Cohen, Ph.D., Emily P. Zammitti, M.P.H., and Michael E. Martinez, M.P.H., M.H.S.A, National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program, Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2017, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/insur201805.pdf

[3] The calculations for the lost Medicaid funding are explained in the table in the report. The lost funding in the Marketplace was calculated by multiplying the average premium subsidy in 2018 by the difference in the marketplace enrolment with subsidies in 2018 and 2017.  See average premiums at Kaiser Family Foundation website at https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/marketplace-average-premiums-and-average-advanced-premium-tax-credit-aptc/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

[4] Calculated by inflating the premium in 2017 in the marketplace by the average increase over the previous three years and comparing that to what was the actual increase in 2018 multiplied by everyone who did not receive a subsidy.

[5] Karina Wagnerman, New Study Finds Evidence of a “Chilling Effect” in 2016 Marketplace Enrollment,July 19, 2018, https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2018/07/19/new-study-finds-evidence-of-a-chilling-effect-in-2016-marketplace-enrollment/

[6] Halley Cloud, In Latest Sabotage Administration Nearly Eliminates Marketplace Enrollment Assistance Funds, July 13, 2018, https://www.cbpp.org/blog/in-latest-aca-sabotage-administration-nearly-eliminates-marketplace-enrollment-assistance-funds

[7] Kaiser Family Foundation, Distribution of Non-Elderly Uninsured Individuals,https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/distribution-of-nonelderly-uninsured-individuals-who-are-ineligible-for-financial-assistance-due-to-income-offer-of-employer-coverage-or-citizenship-status/?dataView=1&currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

[8] Kaiser Family Foundation, Effectuated Marketplace Enrollment and Financial Assistancehttps://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/effectuated-marketplace-enrollment-and-financial-assistance/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

[9] See note 5. Divided total increase in premiums by everyone who did not receive a subsidy.

[10] NJPP analysis of plans in Healthcare.gov for 2018.

[11] DMAHS email responding to OPRA request by NJPP, December 12, 2017. The period is December 2006 to November 2017. Through marketplace: 134,761; Direct: 277,679.

[12] NJ Department of Labor, Major Indicators of Labor Market Activity for New Jersey Seasonally Adjusted 2017 Benchmark, https://www.nj.gov/labor/forms_pdfs/lwdhome/press/2018/20180719UITABLES.pdf

[13] Pew Research Center, U.S. Unauthorized Immigration Population Estimates, November 3, 2016, http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/unauthorized-immigrants/ http://www.njpp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NJPPCoverAllKidsJan2018.pdf

[14] Samantha Artiga, Kaiser Family Foundation, Potential Effects of Public Charge Changes On Health Coverage For Citizen Children, March 2018, https://www.kff.org/disparities-policy/issue-brief/potential-effects-of-public-charge-changes-on-health-coverage-for-citizen-children/

[15] Ibid.

 

Newest Trump Sabotage of Obamacare Could Make Health Insurance Unaffordable for Many New Jerseyans

To read a PDF version of this report, click here


Despite recent progress made by New Jersey to keep health care coverage more affordable, the Trump administration continues to come up with new and harmful ways to do just the opposite. In New Jersey, premiums have already increased by about 20 percent in 2018 and enrollment in the individual market dropped by an unprecedented 40,000 residents. These newest actions would further undermine the health care marketplace, make insurance unaffordable for many more New Jerseyans, and could even increase the uninsured rate, which has dropped by about a third due to the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

There is a long list of actions the Trump administration has already taken to sabotage the ACA, but the most recent include the following:

1. Payments for New Jerseyans with the most serious health conditions in the individual and small employer market are halted

The Trump administration indefinitely suspended $64 million in payments to insurers in New Jersey to defray the cost of covering consumers with high health costs in 2017 in the individual and small (employer) group markets. The decision by the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) not to redistribute funds to insurers for high need consumers, who often have preexisting conditions, is based on their refusal to challenge or remedy a court decision in New Mexico that invalidated their methodology for distributing “risk adjustment” payments. Those payments were to be made to insurers to compensate them for consumers who are, on average, unhealthier and therefore have higher medical costs. The federal government does not save any money for halting these payments because they are paid by other insurers that have healthier consumers.

Risk adjustment payments are necessary as the ACA requires that insurers accept anyone with pre-existing conditions. Because some insurers end up assisting more of these and other, sicker consumers than other insurers, they need additional compensation for those higher costs. These payments are crucial as they are the only remaining mechanism to compensate insurers for higher than usual consumer costs. Reinsurance ended in 2016 and Republicans in Congress defunded the risk corridor program in 2013.

While a system without risk adjustment payments creates winners and losers in the short term, all insurers lose in the long run because those insurers that have relatively healthy consumers in one year may have more unhealthy consumers in subsequent years. Because of the uncertainly of these payments, there will be pressure on all insurers to increase premiums next year. Ironically, in the CMS announcement about halting the payments, it praised the effectiveness of risk adjustment which has been in operation for three years. By suspending the payments indefinitely, CMS has caused more uncertainty in the individual and small group (employer) market which will lead to higher premiums unless this matter is resolved.

2. Federal funds for outreach slashed to near nothing

A few days after announcing the suspension of the risk adjustment payments, CMS announced that they were also slashing funding for navigators who help New Jerseyans with signing up for insurance and outreach. New Jersey’s funding was already cut 61 percent last year, decreasing the state’s allotment from $1.9 million to $720,000, one of the steepest declines in the nation. CMS’s decision to lower national funding next year by another 70 percent would result in New Jersey only receiving about $400,000. In effect, this would result in no meaningful outreach and assistance statewide.

3. Trump’s Nominee for the Supreme Court could end protections for pre-existing conditions for most New Jerseyans

Because of the ACA, there are 3.8 million New Jerseyans with pre-existing conditions who cannot be charged more if they lose their employer-based coverage and need to purchase insurance in the individual or small group market. However, the Trump administration has argued in a case filed in Texas that because Congress eliminated the individual mandate, the court should allow insurers to charge consumers based on their pre-existing conditions as they did in the past. This would price many consumers out of the market. This threat has become even more serious given that President Trump will appoint a conservative justice to the Supreme Court where this case could ultimately be decided if it is upheld in lower courts. Should the administration get its way on eliminating protections for pre-existing conditions, it could finally unravel the ACA.

New Jersey has taken major actions to protect consumers, but more help will be needed

Thanks to Gov. Murphy and the Legislature, New Jersey was the first state to restore the individual mandate after Republicans in Congress repealed it. This was needed to avoid individuals gaming the system by waiting until they were very ill before purchasing insurance, which would drive up the premiums for everyone else to defray their additional cost. It also discourages individuals from not obtaining insurance and instead going to an emergency room, which would be paid for by taxpayers in the form of charity care payments to hospitals. Most low-income individuals who seek insurance in the marketplace find that their premiums are greatly reduced by federal subsidies and, if they are eligible for Medicaid, there is no cost at all.

New Jersey is also the only state to use the revenues from the individual mandate to help fund a reinsurance program to reduce premiums for middle class families who receive no federal premium subsidies. It has also submitted a waiver to the federal government that would secure $244 million in federal savings starting in the first year and increase thereafter over five years. The combination of these two initiatives would reduce premiums by an impressive 15 percent from what they would be otherwise.

In addition, one of the first acts of Governor Murphy was to sign an executive order requiring all state entities that interact with the public “to provide information to the public regarding the Affordable Care Act and ways to enroll,” subject to budgetary constraints and law. Such a plan to achieve this objective is being prepared by the governor’s office.

These laudatory pursuits will significantly reduce the impact of Republican efforts to undermine the marketplace, but they will not totally eliminate all the harm that will occur. This sabotage would still result in an increase in premiums from what they would otherwise be and possibly more uninsured people. The most effective strategy is for the state and New Jersey’s Congressional delegation to continue to strongly oppose these federal efforts to disrupt the marketplace. However, if that opposition is not successful, the state will need to come up with even more new and creative ways to protect New Jerseyans.

 

Legal Representation in Immigration Courts Leads to Better Outcomes, Economic Stability

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


 

New Jersey should create a universal representation program that is publicly-funded to provide free, court-appointed counsel to low-income immigrants in New Jersey who are detained and facing deportation in immigration courts.

Studies have shown that offering legal representation in immigration court increases the likelihood of an individual winning their case, being released to their families, and consequently improving the lives of families.[1] In addition, legal representation has positive impacts in the communities where immigrants reside as deportations not only hurt the individuals, but also their families and local economies. Creating a universal representation program that expands access to counsel for detained immigrants will not only bolster New Jersey’s immigrant families, but the broader state economy.

Key Findings

  • In New Jersey, individuals detained for civil immigration violations are three times as likely to prevail in their cases when they have legal representation.[2] With legal representation, they are also twice as likely to be released prior to the end of their removal proceedings.[3]
  • New Jersey employers pay $5.9 million in turnover-related costs annually as they are forced to replace detained or deported employees.[4]
  • New Jersey’s economy would lose $18 million in wages and$1.6 million in total tax revenue annually from detained immigrants.[5]
  • Annually, detentions and deportations cost New Jersey approximately $732,000 in child health insurance and $203,000 in foster care for children of detained or deported parents.[6] This total annual cost of nearly $1 million does not include the long-term costs associated with child trauma, development, and health conditions from deporting their parents.

Legal Representation Keeps New Jersey Families Together
In New Jersey, immigration arrests have increased by 42 percentunder the Trump Administration, far outpacing the national average.[7] As ICE increases arrests at an alarming rate, thousands of people across New Jersey, including U.S. citizens, immigrants with legal permanent residence, visa holders, and undocumented immigrants have been detained and separated from their families and communities, and detached from local economies that depend on them to prosper.

When immigrants in New Jersey are detained and do not have access to legal representation, they are deported 86% of the time.[8] For many of these individuals, they will never be able to return to the United States and reunite with their families.

The journey through immigration court can be lengthy and complicated. In New Jersey, the average detainee spends 62 days in a detention facility.[9] Some immigrants spend their entire removal proceedings jailed in detention centers waiting for their case to be heard and decided by an immigration judge. Others are detained and later released on bond to await trial. Federal government mandates nearly 40,000 immigration beds to be filled by detainees at any given time.[10]

Immigration courts are not required to provide immigrants legal counsel like in the criminal justice system, as deportation is a civil rather than criminal matter. Whether immigrants have access to legal counsel or not, the government proceeds with the immigration case and immigrants are left to fend for themselves in court against a trained government attorney who seeks their removal.

In New Jersey, about 67 percent of people in immigration detention do not have access to legal counsel and must fight their deportation case without a lawyer by their side. Also, detained immigrants in the Garden State are particularly vulnerable: only 14% of immigrants detained throughout their proceedings are able to avoid deportation without legal representation.[11]

Moreover, immigrants and their families are facing greater threats from the federal government than they have in decades. The current administration has made it clear that immigrants without a criminal record are priority for deportation, including parents of U.S. citizen children. Over the past three years, federal immigration authorities have also wrongly detained more than one thousand U.S. citizens.

The Trump administration has also increased the number of immigrants vulnerable to deportation by ending the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program for 6 of the 10 designated countries. In New Jersey, about 13,900 people from El Salvador, Honduras, and Haiti will lose their work permit and protection from deportation by 2020. Also, the uncertainty of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) could threaten New Jersey’s 17,000 DACA recipients and 53,000 DACA eligible young peopleinto with imminent deportation.

Lack of Access to Legal Representation is a Drag on New Jersey’s Economy
New Jersey employers bear a large fiscal burden of turnover costs related to detention and deportation. Based on our projections, employers in New Jersey pay an estimated $5.9 millionin turnover-related costs annually as they are forced to replace detained or deported employees. Consequently, employers lose money and production due to a sudden reduction in the workforce.

The financial burden does not stop with employer turnover-related costs, but spills over to the broader state economy. Annually, New Jersey’s workforce loses $18 million in wages and the state foregoes $1.6 million in tax revenue as detained immigrants are unable to show up to work.

Families lose wages, purchasing power and the ability to pay bills on time when a loved one is detained. They are also less able to provide for their children. According to the Center for Migration Studies, deportations increase foreclosure among Latinos by removing income earners from households.

Losing a bread-winner of the household to deportation will likely put many families – including an estimated 168,000 U.S. citizen children of undocumented immigrants in New Jersey – in vulnerable situations and will likely increase their demand for public assistance.[12]

In New Jersey, about 168,000 children have an undocumented parent. Approximately 128,000 of these children, or 78%, are U.S. citizens.[13] In addition, New Jersey has about 8,700 U.S. citizen children with parents who are going to lose their TPS status by 2020 making even more children vulnerable to losing a parent to deportation.[14] Nationally, an estimated 5,000 children are placed in foster care because a parent was detained or deported. Children whose parents are detained or deported are at higher risk of mental health issues and suffer from developmental delays.

Annually, detentions and deportations cost New Jersey approximately $732,000 in child health insurance costs and $203,000 in foster care for children of detained or deported parents. This annual monetary cost of nearly $1 million does not include the long-term costs associated with child trauma, development, and health conditions from deporting their parents.

New Jersey Loses When Immigrants Lack Legal Representation
New Jersey benefits from its diverse immigrant population, with the third highest share (22%) of immigrants nationally and half a million undocumented immigrants that contribute to the state’s social and economic fabric.

The Garden State has 34,232 main street businesses, and immigrants own 48.1% of them.[15] This is the highest percentage share of immigrant owned main street businesses aside from California. In all, almost 270,500 workers in New Jersey are employed at an immigrant-owned business. And immigrants or their children have founded 39% of the nineteen Fortune 500 companies based in New Jersey. These companies generate more than $133 billion in annual revenue and employ almost 600,000 people globally.[16]

But New Jersey’s immigrants aren’t just contributing as entrepreneurs and job creators. They are also paying taxes: more than $13.1 billion in federal taxes and $6.5 billion in state and local taxes each year. And every year, New Jersey’s immigrants are also contributing to our entitlement programs: $2 billion to Medicare (of which $179.4 million is paid by undocumented New Jerseyans) and more than $7 billion to Social Security (of which $695 million is paid by undocumented residents).[17]

If all of the Garden State’s undocumented immigrants were deported, the loss to New Jersey’s Gross Domestic Product, 4.9%, is the largest loss of any of the 50 states, topping immigrant-heavy states like California (4.7% loss), Texas (3% loss) and New York (3% loss), according to a 50-state analysis by the Center for American Progress. [18]

The forced removal of these striving immigrants would cause New Jersey to lose $25.9 billion in annual economic activity. While this is not the largest dollar loss of any state (California tops the list at $103 billion), it is the largest when taken in context of the size of a state’s economy.[19]

New Jersey’s workforce has the third-highest share of undocumented workers in the nation at 7.4%, behind California (10.2%) and Texas (8.7%). But the loss of these workers’ contributions would be more keenly felt by New Jersey’s economy, in large part because New Jersey’s undocumented workers’ contributions to the economy are more diverse and felt in many higher-paid industries.[20]

While families are ripped apart from each other at the border, New Jersey should send a clear message to the nation that it will do its part in keeping families together and ensure that all its residents receive due process including a fair day in immigration court.

Let’s remember that immigrants do not live separately from the rest of New Jersey residents. They are vitally entwined throughout New Jersey’s communities, assets to our state, and contributors to our culture, our economy and our prosperity. If universal representation becomes a reality in New Jersey, our state would join New York and six cities across the country in providing universal legal representation for low-income, detained immigrants. Having a universal representation program is a pro-family, pro-economy policy that lawmakers should support in order to continue New Jersey’s history as the golden door for immigrants. Universal representation would also maintain New Jersey’s status as a welcoming, inclusive state. 

Acknowledgments:
NJPP appreciates the feedback received from the following organizations: Make the Road NJ, ACLU, American Friends Service Committee, Fiscal Institute Policy, and the Center for Popular Democracy.


Endnotes

[1] The Center for Popular Democracy. New York Immigrant Family Unity Project – The Report, October 2013. Access to Justice: Ensuring Counsel for Immigrants Facing Deportation in the D.C. Metropolitan Area, April 2017. Vera Institute.Evaluation of the New York Immigrant Family Unity Project: Assessing the Impact of Legal Representation on Family and Community Unity, November 2017.

[2] Seton Hall Law School. Deportation Without Representation the Access-to-Justice Crisis Facing New Jersey’s Immigrant Families, June 2016.

[3] NJPP analysis of the data in the report: Deportation Without Representation the Access-to-Justice Crisis Facing New Jersey’s Immigrant Families. The EOIR data set consists of 3,868 cases and includes all removal cases in which an Immigration Judge (IJ) made a final case-related decision in the New Jersey Immigration Courts (Elizabeth and Newark) between February 1, 2014 and January 31, 2015.54 This data set includes only cases resolved in New Jersey and not cases that were transferred to other jurisdictions.

[4] Used data from Seton Hall Report and duplicated methodology used in The Center for Popular Democracy report, Access to Justice: Ensuring Counsel for Immigrants Facing Deportation in the D.C. Metropolitan Area. Consists of multiplying those detained by those below and above the federal poverty level, multiplying those by adult immigrants in the workforce. Then multiplying the annual salary of those in the combined food serve and preparation workers by 16%, which is the typical turnover costs for positions earning less than $ 30,000 annually. Also, multiplying the annual pay for “other services” by 19.7% the typical turnover costs for positions earning less than $50,000 annually.

[5] To calculate the average wage lost  per day we used partof Colorado Fiscal Institute’s calculations in their reportThe High Cost of Immigration Enforcement in Colorado, we multiplied the work days missed by the individuals wage divided by works days missed.  The work days missed was calculated using the average days detained in NJ (62 days) and the assumption that a person works 5 days a week. Out of the 62 days is 8 weeks and 6 days. Thus, we subtracted 62-17 to obtain the number of worked days missed. The median individual wage for a noncitizen working full time is $31,200 according ACS (2016 1-year sample). We multiplied the number of works days missed by the average daily salary times the number of detained in immigrants in FY 2017 We multiplied the amount of wages lost by 9 percent – that’s the percent of income paid in taxes by everyone up to the 80th percentile in NJ, according to Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Who Pays, 5t edition.

[6] Multiply estimated number of U.S. citizen Children of immigrants detained through their proceeding but deported by 57 percent of US-born and naturalized citizen children covered by employer or private coverage. Multiply that product by the annual average per-child cost to Children Health Insurance Program.

[7] The Star Ledger. ICE arrests surging in N.J. under Trump. Here’s why,February 2018.

[8] Ibid 2.

[9] Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. Legal Noncitizens Receive Longest ICE Detention, June 2013.

[10] National Immigration Forum. The Math of Immigration Detention, 2018 Update: Costs Continue to Multiply, 2018.

[11] Ibid 2.

[12] Migration Policy Institute. A Profile of U.S. Children with Unauthorized Immigrant Parents, January 2016.

[13] Ibid 12.

[14] Center for American Progress. Temporary Protected Status: State-by-state Factsheets on TPS May 2018.

[15] Analysis of the Fiscal Policy Institute unreleased data on immigrant business owners. 2016.

[16] New Jersey Policy Perspective. New Jersey’s Immigrants are a Huge Economic Driver, February 2017.

[17] Ibid 16.

[18] Ibid 16

[19] Ibid 16.

[20] Ibid 16.

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Revisiting the Notorious Nine: Key Decisions That Sent New Jersey’s Financial Health Spiraling

For more than two decades, all three branches of New Jersey’s state government have made short-sighted budgeting decisions that have severely damaged the state’s fiscal health and credit rating. This history is well documented and serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of imprudent fiscal stewardship.

In 2016, New Jersey Policy Perspective detailed New Jersey’s most egregious fiscal missteps in The Notorious Nine: How Key Decisions Sent New Jersey’s Financial Health Spiraling Over Two Decades. These blunders provide historical context for the state’s dire fiscal situation and act as a blueprint for what lawmakers should avoid in future budgets: one shot revenue gimmicks, new spending without corresponding new revenue, phantom spending cuts, and a consistent failure to pay for existing obligations.

With the fiscal year 2019 budget currently being debated, lawmakers must understand that continuing to make the mistakes of the past will only further harm New Jersey’s economic future.

Sustainable revenues and targeted investments are the only way forward to bring the state out of this deep hole. Following the path of one shot gimmicks and short term fixes will only widen New Jersey’s structural deficit and dig the hole even deeper.

Without sustainable sources of new revenue, such as the proposed “millionaires tax,” restoring the sales tax to 7%, reinstating the estate tax, and a corporate surcharge on high-earning corporations, New Jersey is doomed to continue down the path of political convenience and irresponsible financing. The lack of sufficient long-term resources will continue to starve the state’s ability to maintain and expand the public assets that give New Jersey its unrivaled advantages.

As the saying goes, those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Now is the time for New Jersey’s lawmakers to turn the page on a history of short-sighted gimmicks and underfunding of key assets. Now is the time for elected officials to show the political courage necessary to fix New Jersey’s finances by including sustainable, long-term revenue sources in this year’s budget.

Please revisit The Notorious Nine to learn the historical context of New Jersey’s budget and understand the decisions lawmakers must make to get the state back on solid footing. With proper action, we’ll be able to avoid a retrospective detailing the damage wrought by The Terrible Ten.


This report was originally released in September 2016. To read a PDF of this report, click here.

For more than four decades, policymakers scrupulously observed New Jersey’s constitutional requirements for balanced annual budgets, including prohibitions against long-term borrowing to pay for current needs. The result was a state that emerged from a gray industrial corridor into an economic powerhouse with a modernized transportation system, an expanded network of public colleges and universities, a million acres of preserved open space and a coveted AAA credit rating that kept borrowing costs low for long-term improvements.

Beginning in the 1990s New Jersey changed course, heading down a path of political convenience and irresponsible financing. Doing so has starved the capacity of state government to maintain and expand the assets that give New Jersey unrivaled economic advantages, threatening the state’s economic future.

Nine key decisions have driven this downward spiral. Both major political parties and all three government branches contributed to the failure. Behind each decision were two unstated assumptions: that policymakers can promise essential services without bothering to pay for them, and that future taxpayers should bear the burden for today’s spending even though they will not benefit from it. At the heart of this duplicity is the intentional, systematic and large-scale raid by governors and legislatures of both parties of the assets that had been set aside for the funding of pensions and retiree health benefits for hundreds of thousands of public employees. The New Jersey Supreme Court abetted this massive, fraudulent raid.

These decisions have contributed to the hollowing out of New Jersey’s middle- and working-class families. Property tax relief declined significantly, while property taxes continued their rise. The cost of a public college education rose dramatically as state operating support tumbled, leading to higher tuitions and higher student debt.

The result is that New Jersey’s future as an economic powerhouse with abundant opportunities is in peril. The assets that help build New Jersey’s strong economy – like its location, transportation networks, well-educated workforce, growing population of striving immigrants and excellent public schools – are being neglected, ignored or even savaged.

We need to be clear about the origins of New Jersey’s tailspin, and it is not, as we’re constantly told, high tax rates. In fact, New Jersey’s desperate economic and financial condition is a product of leaders postponing or simply evading their constitutional responsibilities.

There is no simple, easy solution and no one should expect that in any one governor’s tenure New Jersey can fully correct two decades of reckless financial practice or make all the public investments essential to restore prosperity. However, if policymakers persist with politically convenient gimmicks and policies, New Jersey’s condition will only worsen. Acknowledging the origin and magnitude of the state’s decline would be a courageous start – but only a start.

1. 1994-1996: Significant Income Tax Cuts Lead to Large Property Tax Increases

Despite decades of politicians’ promises to fix the problem, New Jersey has the nation’s highest property taxes. The 2014 median tax bill of $7,452 per year was far ahead of second place Connecticut ($5,369) and the national average ($2,139).[1] So, when New Jersey’s income tax was enacted in 1976, a state constitutional amendment guaranteed that every penny collected would relieve residential property taxpayers. The income tax is a fairer tax, tied to ability to pay: Those with higher incomes pay a larger share of their income than middle-class or low-income residents. Unlike the property tax, if one’s income declines, so does her tax bill.

Gov. Whitman won the 1993 gubernatorial election, in part, on her promise to cut the income tax; a 30 percent income tax cut was phased in over three years beginning in 1994.[2] The financial impact was huge. New Jersey lost about $14 billion in revenue in the first 10 years, reducing the amount of money available for property tax relief.[3]

Bottom line: Gov. Whitman’s tax cuts greatly reduced the funds available to assist local governments and schools and shortchanged property tax relief programs for senior citizens, veterans, the disabled and moderate- and low-income homeowners and renters.

2. 1994 Pension Changes Shift Current Costs to Future Taxpayers

To help plug the budget hole created in part by the income tax cut, the Whitman administration reduced the contributions of state and local governments to the state pension system by $3.5 billion over four years.[4] As of 1993, these assets were more than sufficient to cover the current and future obligations for both pensions and retiree health benefits for state and local public employees. Just three years following enactment of the Pension Reform Act, pensions’ unfunded liabilities multiplied more than five-fold, to $4.2 billion from $800 million.

This sharp break with conservative financial practices started the failure of all three branches of state government to make promised pensions secure at the same time they compounded the problem by increasing future pension benefits without finding the money to pay for them.

In essence this was accomplished by back-loading the pension system. New Jersey reduced the amount of money it invested for current and future pension payments, and changed the rules so the state would have 60 years to catch up with its earlier underfunding rather than 40 years.[5] This meant that the state could contribute far less each year through the 1990s and early 2000s, but would have to pay more and more in later years just to catch up.

This steady stream of pension payment “holidays” for state and local governments had consequences. While public employees paid in every penny required, new laws lowered their annual payments. This contributed to a growing unfunded liability. But far worse was that governors and legislatures failed to appropriate the full employer payment each year beginning in 1994, passing the financial obligations to future governors, legislatures and taxpayers. The amounts now required are staggering, particularly given the state’s slow crawl out of the Great Recession. Time is running out. As it stands now, within 11 years the state won’t have the money it owes to retired teachers. The timeline is even tighter for other civil servants – eight years.[6]

Since pension fund accounts are large pots of money that aren’t due to be spent right away it’s not surprising that they also became attractive ATMs for political leaders who wanted to increase spending without providing the revenues to pay for it. And like mammoth Alaskan glaciers that slowly recede as average temperatures begin to rise, with only a few scientists noticing, it took a while for the impact of pension fund raids to be seen. After a while, though, study commissions and Wall Street credit rating agencies sent out clear warnings that this dangerous practice jeopardized the state’s ability to pay retirees what they would be due. Unfortunately, it was a relatively low-profile issue. No one’s re-election was threatened by their short-term but reckless decisions. And like the melting glaciers that are helping to raise sea levels that endanger coastal areas, by the time the obligations for spectacularly large annual payments were acknowledged, the shortfall was too large to be addressed absent radical, punishing actions.

Adding to the increased risk, the assumed rate of return on pension assets had been increased two years earlier from 7 percent to an aggressive 8.75 percent.[7] Assuming more aggressive returns on investments meant that less money had to be set aside today.

Made at a time when the stock market was entering a bullish period, the Whitman administration cited recent gains as proof that it was prudent to expect higher investment returns and to reduce payments accordingly. But, of course, markets rise and markets fall. For example, in the 10 years ending in 2012, the average public pension fund rose by 6.4 percent a year; even the best-performing funds rose by just 8.1 percent.[8] By assuming such a high rate of return, successive administrations were able to reduce their contributions while falsely “guaranteeing” that current and future pensions were secure.

But the gains were temporary, and the math didn’t work. Twenty years later the unfunded liability – the amount not available to make guaranteed pension payments – had grown 17-fold to a whopping $80 billion.

Bottom line: The switch in methodology and changed assumptions led to reduced contributions by New Jersey state and local governments, growing the gap between assets required for future payments to $4.7 billion in 1995 from $800 million in 1993.[9] What is worse is that annual employer contributions were held down for more than 15 years, presenting today’s taxpayers with a bill that is impossible to pay. All this means that even if the state contributes the full annual required payment as revised in 1994, the pension fund assets will never be adequate to pay the pension obligations. 

3. 1994 Retiree Health Benefits Fund Raid and Conversion Frees Up Cash for the Tax Cut But Puts Health Benefits on Shaky Foundation

Until 1994, retiree health benefits were funded much like pensions – through employer contributions and the compounded returns from investing those contributions in stocks, bonds and other assets. The 1994 law that shifted pension costs to future taxpayers also switched retiree health benefits, requiring the state to put into each year’s budget the amount needed to pay benefits for current retirees. Obviously, as the number of retirees grew, so would the cost to the state.

Making this switch allowed the Whitman administration to empty the $300 million fund that had been built up to pay for these future benefits and – because relatively few retirees were eligible for health benefits – to pay far less each year. Both of these helped plug the budget hole that was created, in part, by the 30 percent income tax cut.[10]

By shifting future costs of retiree health benefits to future taxpayers and raiding the assets in place, Gov. Whitman reduced their costs in her first-term budgets by almost $1 billion.

Health benefits that retired public employees earn after their years of service are no different than pensions, in that they are obligations for which assets should be invested to cover agreed-to payments. The 1994 changes resulted in billions of dollars not being invested that led to the unfunded liability exploding: A $2.3 billion hole in 1994[11] has grown about 29 times larger to where, today, the unfunded liability sits at $65 billion.[12]

Bottom line: Zero dollars are available from investments that were never made after 1994 and the state is on the hook for $65 billion in benefits that must be paid from the general fund at the expense of services vital to New Jersey. In 2016, the payment for both active employees and retiree health benefits was $3.3 billion or 9.7 percent of the state budget.[13] In 1995, it was 3 percent of the budget.

4. Facing Growing Pension Hole in 1997, New Jersey Turns to Reckless Borrowing

The consequences of these major changes to New Jersey’s pension system quickly became apparent, leading to an even more radical proposal. Seeking to tame rapidly growing unfunded liabilities without having to dramatically increase the state’s annual contribution to the pension funds, Gov. Whitman turned to Wall Street, borrowing $2.8 billion in the form of a bond to reduce a liability that had been largely created by the 1994 changes. This was the first time any state borrowed money on that scale to cover a pension liability (a record that lasted until 2003, when Illinois borrowed $10 billion).[14] Now New Jersey could cover more of what it owed over just three years, and pass the very large bill of $10.3 billion to future taxpayers for 31 years.[15]

State and local government employers were allowed to skip required pension payments, their share being partly made up by the money borrowed from Wall Street. The idea was for New Jersey to use the bond proceeds, plus the assumed investment gains from the pension system, to eliminate most of the $4.2 billion unfunded liability.

But it was a ticking time bomb. Sixteen years later, New Jersey taxpayers still owe $2.3 billion of the $2.8 billion borrowed – with interest on top – and annual payments are scheduled to approach $500 million annually by 2020.

The pension obligation bond is three times larger than the next largest borrowing in New Jersey’s history.[16] It also has the most expensive payback, because it carries a permanent interest rate of 7.65 percent and, unlike all other bonds issued by the state, cannot be refinanced to take advantage of lower interest rates. Most importantly, while other bond issues produced tangible products with long-lasting benefits such as roads, sewers or parks, the pension bond produced nothing of lasting value – only a very expensive IOU.

The consequences were immediate and negative. Legislation accompanying the bond act authorized yet another pension payment holiday. From mid-1999 to mid-2006, the state paid in, on average each year, just 4 percent of what was required to keep the pension system healthy (about $23 million a year instead of $600 million).[17] Local governments were given a total or partial contribution holiday over the same period. The $2.8 billion from the pension bond was much too little to meet the payments required over seven years or to fully erase the unfunded liability zooming upward as a result of 1994’s pension changes.

Gov. Whitman told New Jerseyans this borrowing would lower taxes, relieve long-term debt and guarantee the long-term health of the pension fund – while saving taxpayers about $45 billion over 60 years.[18] She asserted that borrowing to pay for pensions was just like a home mortgage, but forgot to mention that one could sell their home to pay off the mortgage after having years of shelter.[19] Pension debt left nothing to sell and no tangible asset. And her administration suggested it came with virtually no risk, “even if there were an economic slowdown.”[20]

In fact, this turned out to be wishful thinking. The stock market boom soon collapsed with the puncturing of the tech bubble. From the end of 2000 through 2003, the assets in the pension funds crashed by 25.3 percent, wiping out $21.7 billion.[21] This reversed the gains from the state’s heavy investments in technology stocks and left the pension funds with a greatly reduced asset base. The end result: billions in future payments were left to taxpayers to both repay the bonds and make up for the assets lost for investment returns.

Bottom line: This year, taxpayers will pay $348.6 million to repay bondholders for covering the employer’s pension costs due in 1997 and 1998 at an interest rate of 7.65 percent.[22] That is stunning by today’s interest rates. The total bill over 31 years will be $10.3 billion.[23] For all that, there is no essential product – no highway, rail line or university facility – to show for it.

5. The New Jersey Supreme Court Opens the Floodgates to More Bad Borrowing

Edison Mayor George Spadoro immediately challenged the pension obligation bond in court, arguing that the New Jersey Constitution prevents the state from going into debt without voter approval except in emergency situations. This offered the Supreme Court the opportunity to prevent an almost doubling in New Jersey’s debt in one day, not a penny of which would be invested in highways, public transit, research facilities or open space – the sole uses of previous bond sales. The Court passed up the opportunity.

Under what is called the Constitution’s Debt Limitation Clause, the legislature is not allowed to create new debt that binds future legislatures without approval by public referendum. The Appropriations Clause prohibits the legislature from making any appropriations of the state’s revenues beyond a given fiscal year or counting borrowed funds as “revenues.”[24] Yet, over the years, the courts had interpreted these clauses in a number of cases to allow the state to take on debt for toll roads, state office buildings and sports stadiums without going through the voters, primarily because a solid stream of dedicated revenues was identified to repay the debts and the state was not on the hook formally to repay the debt.

A New Jersey Superior Court judge turned Spadoro’s challenge away, ruling that the bonds did not create any debt binding future legislatures because they were issued by the Economic Development Authority, an “independent” state authority. A divided appellate panel upheld this decision days later.

These decisions were based on three questionable assumptions: That the EDA is “independent,” that the EDA’s funding was separate from the state’s general fund and that there was no distinction between bonds issued for capital projects and those issued for the “ordinary” functions of government, such as making employer contributions to the pension funds.[25]

The New Jersey Supreme Court quickly announced the controversy moot as the plaintiff had filed his appeal after the bonds had been sold (only 20 days passed between the law’s enactment and the bond sale). Because the transaction could not be “undone” even if the Court found in Spadoro’s favor, the Court refused to act on the appeal. Justice Alan Handler, one of the two Justices to file a partial dissent, believed the Bond Act violated the Constitution’s Debt Limitation Clause. He did not mince words:

“The apparent assumption underlying the [Pension Obligation] Bond Act is that the restrictions of the Debt Limitation Clause may be avoided merely by … substituting an independent authority … as the issuer of debt, even though the authority has no genuine independence,” he wrote. “Under no circumstances should [the Debt Limitation Clause] be deflated or read out of the Constitution as a mere nuisance provision that serves no purpose except to define an administrative procedure for selling debt.”[26]

Before the 1997 Supreme Court decision, voters had approved almost half of the state’s total debt ($3.8 billion of $8.1 billion). Ten years later, New Jersey’s debt had ballooned to $32 billion with just 10 percent of it ($3.1 billion) having been approved by voters.[27]

Bottom line: With the pension bond decision, the New Jersey Supreme Court opened the floodgates for an unprecedented run-up in debt without public approval, which accelerated the deterioration of the state’s financial stability.

6. Pension Benefits are Increased Without the Means to Pay for Them

In the early 2000s, the combination of the state Supreme Court’s decision, successive governors and legislatures that failed to provide the revenues to meet pension obligations and a run-up in the stock market created a new culture of financial irresponsibility in Trenton.

Acting Gov. DiFrancesco, who took over when Gov. Whitman resigned to become the administrator of the federal Environmental Protection Agency, increased pension benefits in 2001 by 9 percent for current and future retired teachers and other civil servants, and simultaneously reduced employee contributions by one-third.[28] The pension increase applied to all active public-sector workers and current retirees, even though those retirees had contributed nothing to the increase. The move was more popular than it was prudent. For one thing, it was built on the premise of a strong stock market that had already begun a significant decline.

To pay for these changes, the governor and lawmakers created their own time machine and their own actuarial rules. Since markets were beginning to decline as the dot-com boom was punctured, the bill reached back for the market value of pension assets two years earlier on June 30, 1999. The governor and legislators decided to capture the difference between the pension fund’s market value on that date and the value that actuaries reported, which was $5.3 billion lower for the teacher pension fund alone.[29] Actuaries are careful to smooth out the volatility in markets by typically taking a three-year average of the market value of assets, hence the $5.3 billion difference. The state carved out a separate “Benefit Enhancement Fund” for each of the two largest pension funds that were to be funded from the inflated and historical market values to pay for the newly increased benefits.[30] If these enhancement funds turned out to be inadequate to cover the increased pension payments, the statute required the state to make up the difference with larger annual appropriations. It turned out that the funds were inadequate, but the significant increased appropriation requirement was ignored year after year.

There was another problem. Between June 1999 and the time the bill was signed into law in 2001, the pension assets had already declined by $4.2 billion as the stock market moved downward.[31] This meant that the difference between actual and actuarial asset calculations had shrunk significantly, but that in no way was reflected in the fictional values assigned to the benefit enhancement funds.

This legislation may have been politically popular, but it accelerated New Jersey’s financial deterioration. It also earned New Jersey the dubious distinction of becoming the first state ever charged with violating federal securities laws.

In 2010, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged New Jersey with fraudulent misrepresentation in its disclosure statements to sell $26 billion in bonds that followed enactment of the 2001 law.[32] The SEC charged, and New Jersey agreed, that the state falsely asserted it made required payments, disguising the underfunding of its two largest pension funds. “The state’s bond offering documents lacked sufficient information for investors to understand the state’s historical failure – since 1997 – to contribute [to the funds],” the SEC noted.[33]

Among the SEC findings:

  • The New Jersey Office of Legislative Services’ fiscal note that was issued two weeks after the law was signed documented that had the most recent quarterly valuation of assets been used, it would have shown a decline of $2.4 billion.
  • The statutory revaluation “created the false appearance that the plans were ‘fully funded’ and allowed the State to justify not making contributions … despite the fact that the market values of the plans’ assets were rapidly declining.”[34]
  • Starting in 1997, New Jersey consistently ignored actuaries’ calculations for employer contributions, instead treating withheld payments as “savings” to be used elsewhere.[35]
  • The state recycled funds between the Benefit Enhancement Funds and supposed reserve funds, creating “the false appearance that the State was making contributions to [the pension funds], when no actual contributions were being made.”[36]

Bottom line: In an unorthodox action, New Jersey granted a 9 percent increase in pension benefits that was funded by capturing asset values posted on one day two years earlier and using that value to claim that payments would be made for the increased benefits. New Jersey earned the distinction of becoming the first state to be charged with fraudulent misrepresentation by the SEC.

7. Long-Term Borrowing to Plug Short-Term Budget Holes Ramps Up

Between a 52 percent overall spending increase in the eight Whitman-DiFrancesco years, the bursting of the dot-com bubble with its trailing recession and the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, New Jersey faced a $5.3 billion shortfall in the budgets for fiscal years 2002 and 2003. Gov. McGreevey, like his two immediate predecessors, borrowed to cover operating expenses. To start, his administration used proceeds from the recent tobacco settlement to help reduce the state budget deficit.

In November 1998, attorneys general from 46 states settled their lawsuits against the tobacco industry for smoking-related health care costs that landed on the states’ doorsteps. The agreement required tobacco companies to make payments to the plaintiff states estimated at $206 billion over 25 years.

New Jersey found an innovative way to spend the tobacco money without having to wait 25 years. Like a handful of other financially distressed states, New Jersey sold bonds to plug budget holes, pledging to repay this borrowing over 12 years out of the yearly proceeds from the tobacco settlement. This “tobacco securitization” granted the bondholders some or all of the revenue from the tobacco settlement to cover the repayments. By foregoing a steady stream of revenue 12 years into the future, Gov. McGreevey was able to generate $3.4 billion to help balance two budgets.

If that sounds risky, that’s because it is.

Because future administrations and taxpayers would be deprived of those revenues while significantly increasing the state’s debt burden, New Jersey received downgrades in its credit ratings from the three major credit rating agencies.

Once again, the New Jersey Supreme Court had the chance to affirm the Debt Limitation Clause in a challenge by Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan to the tobacco securitization and other “contract bonds.” And once again, it chose not to “disrupt the state’s financing mechanisms,” ruling “that the restrictions of the Debt Limitation Clause do not apply to appropriations-backed debt.”[37]

The McGreevey administration was not done borrowing long-term to meet annual budget shortfalls. Faced with another potential deficit in the 2005 budget, Gov. McGreevey increased corporate business tax rates and when it was clear that the higher revenues wouldn’t fill the gap, his administration swapped the future revenues from a tax increase on cigarettes and new driver fees for a one-time infusion of cash from a bond sale to help balance the budget.

The new bond sales helped plug the hole by raising an estimated $1.9 billion for the 2005 budget.[38] But instead of the new revenues (estimated at $185 million per year)[39] going into the general fund to support higher education, Medicaid or other priorities, it would go exclusively to bond buyers for 24 to 30 years.

Just days before Gov. McGreevey was to sign the budget, Republican legislators led by Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance sued to halt the sale of the bonds. They objected to borrowing to balance the budget, but without specifying the budget cuts they would make to avoid the borrowing. Such a scheme would be a burden on future legislators, governors and taxpayers, they argued, and may violate the Constitution’s Debt Limitation and Appropriation Clauses.

A Superior Court Judge ruled that the state could proceed because it had designated two new sources of revenue to cover the bond repayments. The matter was quickly brought to the Supreme Court, which was presented with a fourth opportunity to enforce the Constitution’s Debt Limitation Clause.

Bottom line: Liberated by earlier Supreme Court rulings, Gov. McGreevey executed two “securitization” deals that used long-term debt of $5.3 billion to help balance three budgets.

8. The New Jersey Supreme Court Keeps Blessing Dangerous Financial Practices – Until it is Too Late

The state Supreme Court wasn’t done unwinding the force of conservative constitutional financial mandates with its failure to take up the pension obligation bond. Twice before the case on Gov. McGreevey’s borrowings was heard, the Court was given clear chances to reaffirm the strict boundaries of the clause and twice it passed.

Faced with a 2002 case challenging the issuance of “appropriation” and “contract” bonds, which relied entirely on the good faith that future legislatures would appropriate whatever funds were required for repayment, the Court set aside the question with the exception of bonds to build schools in the 31 Abbott districts (that the Court had ordered in 1995 to receive 100 percent funding for facilities) and to cover up to 40 percent of non-Abbott district capital projects. Effectively, the Court ruled that the Debt Limitation Clause was trumped by the requirement that all children are entitled to a “thorough and efficient” education that includes adequate facilities.[40]

The Court’s decision to protect funding for school facilities was built on a foundation of sand. First, it asserted that school construction bonds were not an obligation of the state, but of the Economic Development Authority, and that bond buyers and credit agencies therefore would not expect the same security as a voter-approved general obligation bond. Second, it assumed that the meager assets of the Fund for the Support of Free Public Schools – which stood at about $100 million – would be sufficient to guarantee repayment of the $2.6 billion in bonds to cover the non-Abbott districts.[41]

Meanwhile, the Court ordered a new hearing on other contract bonds like those issued by the Transportation Trust Fund. A year later a closely-divided Court decided to uphold the surge in appropriation and contract bonds, declaring that when the state was “highly likely” or “obligated” to repay them, it did not fall within the boundaries of the Debt Limitation Clause, even without a dedicated source of revenue.[42]

While the Court failed to halt the surge in contract or appropriation bonds for purposes ranging from school construction to football stadiums to transportation, in the Lance case it finally drew a line on borrowing long-term solely for the purposes of balancing the annual budget.

New Jersey’s Supreme Court overruled the Superior Court opinion, calling the McGreevey bond sale unconstitutional and banning the state from borrowing money to balance the budget – but not until the following fiscal year. “Disruption to the state government,” said the Court majority, overrode the Constitution.[43] This allowed Gov. McGreevey to sell the bonds while protecting all earlier bonds that employed the same device that it now ruled as unconstitutional.

Specifically, the Court rightly found that contract bond proceeds used to fund general expenses in the state budget did not constitute “revenue” and could not be used to balance the budget. However, because the Court had previously ruled otherwise, the holding was applied only to future budgets because aborting the bond sale would have required significant revisions to, if not a complete overhaul of, the 2005 budget.

Bottom line: After seven years and four decisions, the New Jersey Supreme Court finally decided that the Debt Limitation Clause means debt cannot be issued to help balance annual budgets unless approved by public referendum. “Likely appropriations” are no longer a sufficient basis to evade the clause – except in this one case (and all preceding cases).

9. Money for Long-Term Improvement of Key New Jersey Asset Grabbed to Cover Current Costs

Gov. Christie in 2010 withdrew New Jersey’s support for an additional rail tunnel between New Jersey with Manhattan, directing the Port Authority to allocate funds committed to the “Access the Region’s Core” (ARC) tunnel to be redirected to highway and bridge projects in North Jersey. The move allowed the governor to delay addressing the looming Transportation Trust Fund crisis.

That decision compromised New Jersey’s most important economic asset: its location in the middle of the world’s largest market with convenient access to New York City and Philadelphia. No competing state can replicate this advantage, which only works if an efficient transportation network is in place to move people and goods.

The ARC project would have created a more convenient and reliable commute by building a two-track rail tunnel between New Jersey and Manhattan and a new NJ Transit rail terminal in midtown Manhattan, enabling NJ Transit to at least double the number of rush-hour trains.

The ARC cancellation enabled the Christie administration to direct the Port Authority to shift the tunnel money to other projects, in the process avoiding a much-needed increase in New Jersey gasoline taxes to finance transportation projects. The $1.3 billion in ARC funds reallocated to highway and bridge projects in North Jersey meant the governor could ignore the pending bankruptcy of New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund, which pays for capital road, bridge and transit projects around the state and which ran out of money for new projects this summer.

By canceling the ARC project, New Jersey gave up at least $3 billion in federal aid and missed an enormous economic opportunity. It would have created thousands of jobs just as New Jersey was starting to crawl out of the Great Recession and substantially increased property values in towns with train service to New York (and, thus, property tax revenues). It would have encouraged new developments near train stations that would have boosted the economy and significantly reduced the number of polluting cars on the road. Moreover, the Port Authority and New Jersey could have locked-in historically low interest rates that would have saved tens of millions in bond repayments in the future.

Amtrak has since proposed its Gateway tunnel project to replace ARC, but it is still in the planning stage. Once approved, its earliest completion date is 2030, 12 years later than the projected completion date of the ARC project. The realization of this project will still require a significant contribution from New Jersey. Gov. Christie has now endorsed the Gateway project and approved the Port Authority’s participation.

Bottom Line: New Jersey’s greatest economic asset – its location – has been severely diluted by the ARC cancellation. The draw of diverse residential communities with some of the nation’s best public schools and easy access to New York will dwindle once commuter rail service is sharply reduced with the pending shutdown of single-track tunnels for unavoidable repairs.


Endnotes

[1] U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Mortgage Status by Median Real Estate Taxes Paid.

[2] Disclaimer: Co-author MacInnes was one of four legislators to vote against all three tax-cut bills.

[3] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Was It Worth It? Looking Back on a Decade of Income Tax Cuts, March 2005, p.1.

[4] Plansponsor Magazine, Whitman’s Bruising POB Fight: The New Jersey Governor Pushed Through a Record $2.75 Billion Issue, Only to Face a Lawsuit and a New Issue For Her Next Reelection Campaign, September 1997.

[5] New York Times, Whitman’s Borrowing Plan: Criticism May Not Go Away, June 1997.

[6] Moody’s Investors Service, Issuer Comment: New Jersey (State of): New Jersey Reports Surge in Unfunded Liabilities Under New Pension Accounting Rule, December 2014.

[7] State of New Jersey Benefits Review Task Force, Report of the Benefits Review Task Force to Acting Governor Richard J. Codey, December 2005, p.10

[8] Cliffwater, LLC, 2013 Report on State Pension Performance and Trends, July 2013.

[9] Barbara and Stephen Salmore, New Jersey Politics and Government: 4th Edition, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press, 2013, p. 206

[10] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Take the Money & Run: How Fiscal Policy From the ‘90s to Now Threatens New Jersey’s Future, 2001, p. 31

[11] Ibid 10, p. 30

[12] Politico New Jersey, Fitch Reaffirms State’s Credit Rating, But Unfunded Liability Still Concerning, March 2016.

[13] New Jersey Department of Treasury, Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 2016, p. 10

[14] Pro Publica and Washington Post, How Illinois’ Pension Debt Blew Up Chicago’s Credit, May 2015.

[15] State of New Jersey, New Jersey Comprehensive Annual Financial Report,Fiscal Year 1997, p. 9

[16] The 2000 bond sale by the Transportation Trust Fund comes in second, at $900 million.

[17] New York Times, Behind Fraud Charges, New Jersey’s Deep Crisis, August 2010.

[18] Fortune Magazine, The Public Pension Bomb, May 2009.

[19] New Jersey Department of Treasury, Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 1998. p.47

[20] Tom Bryan, The New Jersey Pension System, p. 350 in Pensions in the Public Sector, edited by Olivia S. Mitchell and Edwin Hustead, University of Pennsylvania Press, 2001.

[21] Ibid 7, p.10

[22] State of New Jersey, Annual Debt Report, Fiscal Year 2014, p.21

[23] Ibid 15

[24] N.J. Const. art. VIII, § 2

[25] Spadoro v. Whitman, 150 N.J. 2 (1997) 695 A.2d 654 at 11

[26] Ibid 25 at 13

[27] New York Times, Corzine’s New Equation: Tolls Up, Borrowing Down, November 2007.

[28] P.L. 2001, c. 133

[29] The New York Times, N.J. Pension Fund Endangered by Diverted Billions, April 2007.

[30] Philadelphia Inquirer, Since 1992, Governors Have Been Shortchanging N.J. Pension Fund, September 2010.

[31] Ibid 7, p.11

[32] State of New Jersey, Exchange Act Release No. 9135, 2010 WL 3260860 (Aug. 18, 2010) [hereinafter Exchange Act Release No. 9135]

[33] Exchange Act Release No. 9135, p.11 of Consent Decree (emphasis added)

[34] Ibid 33 p.7

[35] Ibid 33, p.8

[36] Ibid 33, p.9 (emphasis added)

[37] Lonegan II v. State of New Jersey, 819 A.2d 395 (2003) 176 N.J. 2

[38] State of New Jersey, New Jersey Comprehensive Annual Financial Report, Fiscal Year 2005, p.20

[39] New Jersey Department of Treasury, Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 2005, p.29

[40] Lonegan I v. State of New Jersey,174 N.J. 435, 809 A.2d 91 at 106

[41] Ibid 40 at 106

[42] Lonegan v. State of New Jersey, 176 N.J. 2, 19 (2003) at 406

[43] Lance v. McGreevey, 180 N.J. 590 (2004) at 861

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Fast Facts: Proposed Tax Changes Would Bring More Balance to New Jersey’s Tax Code

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


The tax changes proposed in Gov. Murphy’s first budget would bring more balance to New Jersey’s tax code by raising taxes on the wealthiest one percent while reducing them for the lowest-income New Jerseyans.[1] Updating the tax code would also raise nearly $2 billion in new revenue for targeted investments in early education, public transit, health care and other essential public services.

The effect of the Murphy plan is based on the following tax policy proposals:[2]

  • An income tax increase on annual earnings of $1 million or more by implementing a tax rate of 10.75 percent
  • The restoration of New Jersey’s sales tax to 7 percent
  • The closing of tax loopholes used by multi-state corporations by implementing “combined reporting”
  • An increase of the EITC from 35 percent to 40 percent phased-in over 3 years
  • An increase in the state property tax deduction from $10,000 to $15,000 for over half a million homeowners
  • A new child and dependent care tax credit for families with annual incomes of less than $60,000

These targeted tax changes would bring greater balance to the state’s tax code by giving working families in the bottom 20 percent a much-needed tax break and ensuring that the wealthiest New Jerseyans are paying their share. The overall effect would be a tax code that more accurately reflects one’s ability to pay.

The proposed new marginal gross income tax rate on incomes over $1 million was popular with legislators during the Christie administration, as it was passed five times by both houses of the legislature and vetoed each time. Now, after recent changes to the federal tax code, some legislators fear that this is not the right time to raise state income taxes on those earning $1 million or more a year. These fears are unfounded: New Jersey’s top one-percent of taxpayers still receive a net tax cut when combining the effects of the recent federal tax overhaul and Gov. Murphy’s proposed tax changes.

According to a side-by-side analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and Gov. Murphy’s plan, the top one percent of taxpayers – those earning over $924,000 a year and with an average annual income of about $2.5 million – would still come out ahead. That’s because their average tax break from the federal tax law is slightly larger than their average tax increase at the state level. Some of these wealthy households may experience a slight tax increase depending on their specific circumstances, but as a whole, the top one percent would not be burdened under Gov. Murphy’s tax plan. In fact, they would see little to no change to their overall tax bill, while New Jersey’s most important assets would see a much-needed boost in funding.

The lion’s share of income growth over the past decade has gone to New Jersey’s wealthiest taxpayers, yet the state and local tax code stillrequires low- and middle-income households to pay greater shares of their incomes in taxes than their wealthier neighbors. Gov. Murphy’s tax plan addresses the upside-down nature of the state’s tax code while raising the revenue needed to give all New Jerseyans a better opportunity to thrive – and, given the federal tax windfall to the wealthiest households who did nothing to earn it, lawmakers should feel confident in enacting a more equitable tax code here in the Garden State. The alternative would either be draconian cuts to public services or more reliance on taxes and fees that disproportionately fall on low- and middle-income families. Each of those options only leads to a more difficult and uncertain economic future for New Jersey families.

 


Endnotes

[1] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) Microsimulation Tax Model, May 2018.

[2] These data do not include a “federal deduction offset” figure as appears in Who Pays and other ITEP reports because under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the federal deduction for state and local taxes is limited to $10,000 and will predominantly affect only a relatively small group of high-income itemizers, most of whom will likely have enough tax payments to exceed the $10,000 cap. Because the availability of a deduction will be narrowed – and it will no longer vary significantly in proportion to state and local taxes paid – it does not function as a generalized offset of those taxes.

 

“American Health Care Act” Would Have Been a Disaster for New Jersey

To read a PDF version of this report, click here


May 4th marks a day of infamy in New Jersey and nationally, for it was on that day that Congress passed the American Health Care Act of 2017 in an attempt to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act.

The stakes were particularly high for New Jersey because about 800,000 New Jerseyans – nearly 10 percent of the state’s population – obtained their health coverage through the ACA, either in the private individual marketplace or though the Medicaid expansion. Enactment of this bill would have caused irreparable harm to the state’s health, budget and economy.

To the credit of the New Jersey Congressional Delegation, 10 of the 12 members voted against it, including three of the five Republican members. While that was not enough to prevent passage in the House, the bill fortunately failed in the Senate. Here is what would have happened in New Jersey if this regressive bill had become law:1

Over Half a Million New Jerseyans Would Have Lost Health Coverage

  • 540,000 New Jersey residents would have become uninsured.
  • The uninsurance rate would have spiked by 50 percent (from 9.8% in 2016 to 14.7% by 2026).
  • The newly uninsured would have consisted of an equal number of New Jerseyans who had insurance in Medicaid or the Marketplace.

The Uninsured Would Have Spiked in All Congressional Districts

  • Tens of thousands of residents would have lost health coverage in all Congressional districts (see table).
  • Districts represented by Republicans would have seen a larger average percentage increase in the number of uninsured than districts represented by Democrats.

One in 10 New Jersey Adults Would Have Lost Coverage Due to the Effective End of the Medicaid Expansion

  • Enrollment would have likely fallen from 562,000 adults to 6,000 by 2027.
  • Eliminating the federal matching rate of 90 percent would have meant that New Jersey could not afford to maintain the Medicaid expansion.
  • New Jersey would have lost about $21 billion in federal funds for the Medicaid expansion over 7 years.
  • State costs for charity care would have increased by the hundreds of millions.

A Permanent Cap on Federal Medicaid Funds Would Have Threatened the Health of 1.6 Million Vulnerable New Jerseyans

  • The cap would have harmed everyone on Medicaid but especially seniors and people with disabilities because they represent about three quarters of Medicaid funding.
  • The already very low reimbursement rates to providers would have been reduced even lower which would have sharply limited access to critical medical care.

Premiums for New Jerseyans With Preexisting Conditions Could Have BecomeUnaffordable

  • Premium tax credits would be reduced by $7 billion in New Jersey over 10 years.
  • Instead of a share of a person’s income, premium credits would have been based on age.
  • Older New Jerseyans would have been hit with up to an 800% increase in the cost for their insurance, making it unaffordable for most of them.
  • Due to New Jersey’s own Congressman Tom MacArthur’s amendment, states would have been allowed to greatly increase premiums based on pre-existing conditions and eliminate essential benefits like hospitalization, maternity care and mental health or substance abuse treatment.

New Jersey’s Economy Would Have Been Disrupted and Thousands of Jobs Lost

  • New Jersey would have lost about $4.8 billion annually in federal funds which would have led to a $6.6 billion loss in economic activity and 54,000 jobs.

 


Endnotes

[1] For sources to all data, see Raymond Castro, House-Passed Health Bill Would End Coverage for More Than Half a Million New Jerseyans, New Jersey Policy Perspective, June 2017, https://www.njpp.org/healthcare/house-passed-health-bill-would-end-coverage-for-more-than-half-a-million-new-jerseyans

Fast Facts: Bold State Tax Reforms Would Boost New Jersey’s Economy, Create Jobs

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


There are many compelling reasons for New Jersey policymakers to advance a bold agenda for tax reform in 2018. They’d be making the state’s tax code fairer while raising new revenues for the state to pay for public services, help those in need and invest in the shared building blocks of a strong economy. They’d be reversing years of tax-cutting that has mostly benefited the state’s wealthiest families and made the tax code even more upside down. And last but not least, they’d be boosting the state economy and creating jobs.

In fact, enacting a bold tax reform agenda and using that new money to reinvest in New Jersey would boost the economy by $2.9 billion by 2022, increasing personal income by $2.4 billion and creating over 35,000 new jobs. (For details on the methodology, see Appendix.)

These economic boosts are based on the following policy changes and assume that all are enacted in 2018.

Revenue raisers:

  • Increasing the income tax on the wealthiest 5 percent of New Jersey households. By adding four brackets to the state’s income tax and increasing rates on these well-off households, lawmakers would raise more than $1 billion in new revenue each year.[1]
  • Restoring the sales tax to 7 percent. By reversing 2016’s third-of-a-penny cut to the state sales tax – a cut that most New Jersey families say hasn’t helped them at all[2] – lawmakers would raise about $600 million in new revenue each year.[3]
  • Closing corporate tax loopholes by enacting “combined reporting.” By following the lead of the majority of states with corporate taxation and ending the ability of multistate corporations to artificially shift profits out of New Jersey to lower- or no-tax states[4], lawmakers would level the playing field for small, local businesses and raise up to $290 million in new revenue each year.[5]
  • Restoring the estate tax for heirs inheriting estates worth more than $1 million. By returning sensible taxation of inherited wealth to New Jersey, lawmakers would raise approximately $500 million in new revenue a year and restore an essential safeguard against rapidly increasing wealth inequality.[6]

Spending:

  • The new revenues from the policy changes above would be split 50/50 between general state services (spent in the same proportion as current state spending) and public education (at both the elementary and secondary level, spent in the same proportion as current spending on public education).

Appendix: Economic Model

The employment and economic effects of tax policy changes described in this report were derived from the PI+ Version 2.1 of Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), which generates realistic year-by-year estimates of the total regional effects of any specific policy initiative.

A wide range of policy variables allows the user to represent the policy to be evaluated, while the explicit structure in the model helps the user to interpret the predicted economic and demographic effects.

For more details on the PI+ Version 2.1 model, visit http://www.remi.com/model/pi/

Endnotes

[1] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Reforming New Jersey’s Income Tax Would Help Build Shared Prosperity, September 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/reforming-new-jerseys-income-tax-would-help-build-shared-prosperity

[2] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Poll: Most New Jerseyans Want Bold Solutions on State Taxes, November 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/poll-most-new-jerseyans-want-bold-solutions-on-taxes-public-investments

[3] New Jersey Office of Legislative Services, Legislative Fiscal Estimate on A-12, October 2016. http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/A0500/12_E3.PDF

[4] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Nearly All of New Jersey’s Largest Employers Already Subject to ‘Combined Reporting’ in Other States, January 2016. https://www.njpp.org/budget/nearly-all-of-new-jerseys-largest-employers-already-subject-to-combined-reporting-in-other-states

[5] New Jersey Office of Legislative Services, Legislative Fiscal Estimate on S-982, March 2016. http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/S1000/982_E1.HTM

[6] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Fairly and Adequately Taxing Inherited Wealth Will Fight Inequality & Provide Essential Resources for All New Jerseyans, June 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/fairly-and-adequately-taxing-inherited-wealth-will-fight-inequality-provide-essential-resources-for-all-new-jerseyans

Investing in New Jersey’s Future Will Require New Revenues

Critical investments in public assets won’t happen without more public income

To read a PDF version of this report, click here.


To begin rebuilding a strong state economy, New Jersey’s governor and legislators must stabilize the state’s finances and put the Garden State back on track to invest in its competitive assets, which have been largely neglected during a 25-year slide into financial peril. New investments require new revenue that should be tied to much-needed public services and essential investments.

This is the most pressing – and most contentious – of the many problems facing the state’s new governor and legislature. And it can’t be solved by more can kicking, the threat of more spending cuts or misreading the impact of President Trump’s tax revisions. A robust plan for new funding streams is required.

Crucial Public Investments Have Deteriorated

A quarter century of tax cutting, false promises and high-risk financial shenanigans have degraded New Jersey’s economic assets and imperiled its future. How bad has it gotten? Here’s a quick look.

School, municipal and county aid has been sharply reduced after adjusting for inflation, resulting in a steady increase in property taxes

The combination of reduced state aid, steady inflation and property tax caps have led to budget cuts, layoffs of public employees, tacked-on bills for sports and sewers, borrowing to cover annual costs and other financially imprudent – even dangerous – actions by towns, counties and school districts.

Direct property tax relief was slashed during the recession and has not been restored

In 2008, the state budget included $2.8 billion in direct funding to reduce property taxes for eligible aged, disabled or working-class New Jerseyans.[1] By 2012, this had been slashed by 57 percent to just over $1.2 billion, where it has pretty much remained for 7 years[2].

Residential property taxes continue to be the highest in the nation

What politician doesn’t promise “lower property taxes,” almost always without specifying how or what will lower them? Residential property taxes of more than $22.5 billion match the total collected by the state from income and sales taxes, $15 billion of which is dedicated to property tax relief.[3] If even a millionaire’s tax increase affecting only 20,000 of 4 million households is beyond consideration, there is no prospect of significantly reducing property taxes.

New Jersey has shifted the cost of public higher education to students and their families

New Jersey’s public colleges and universities have seen a steady decline of 24 percent since 2010 in state operating aid, when adjusted for inflation.[4] This helps explain the rapidly increasing costs of tuitions and fees at these institutions, and the accompanying growth in student debt. If state support for the operating costs of 4-year public colleges had just kept up with inflation in those costs beginning in 2010, instead of providing $703 million for operating costs for the 2016-17 academic year, the state would have put up just over $1 billion, a gap of 48 percent.[5] And during the same time, the number of students – full-time, part-time and graduate – grew by 10 percent.[6] At county colleges, operating support dropped 18 percent between 2009 and 2017.[7]

NJ Transit – once the national public transit model – is now the nation’s underperformer

State disinvestment in NJ Transit has led the agency to turn more frequently to riders, who now pay the nation’s highest fares for the 2nd worst on-time performance[8][9]. Location is New Jersey’s greatest asset, but if commuter trains to New York and Newark continue their downward slide, the prospects for attracting young families to towns like Ridgewood, Princeton, Summit, Red Bank, Bernardsville and Maplewood with their lively downtowns, excellent public schools and parks are badly diminished.

The state’s budget is unbalanced and its reserve fund is depleted

Next year’s budget begins with having to replace at least $700 million in one-time revenues in this year’s budget and a raid of at least $200 million on a very small reserve to fund Gov. Christie’s opioid treatment campaign. How small is that reserve? New Jersey currently has the third lowest level in the nation – at just 1.3 percent of spending, or enough to fund 4.6 days of operations. The median of the 50 states is 8 percent, enough to fund nearly a month (29.3 days) of operations. And the state’s more permanent “rainy day fund” has been at zero since 2009.[10]

Lawmakers have put New Jersey on the hook for billions in future tax breaks

As the Great Recession receded, New Jersey opted to run the table with a massive set of tax subsidies and little else. Eight years later, the state is in the bottom quintile of states when it comes to economic activity, new job creation and public and private investment. The 2013 Economic Opportunity Act needs to be sharply revised to minimize the harm that this reckless expansion of $5 billion in tax breaks will have over the next few decades and redirect public investments to tried-and-true methods of economic development.

The state is currently unable to fund promised public employee pensions

Since 1994, governors and legislators of both parties have hidden behind the complexity of actuarial calculations to promise pensions and health benefits that they did not bother to fund. New Jersey was the first state to confess to “fraudulent misrepresentation” to the Securities and Exchange Commission for increasing pension benefits by 9 percent financed by funds that didn’t exist. The total owed now exceeds $125 billion ($93 billion for pensions and $34 billion for retiree health benefits). This year alone, the state is $2.5 billion short of the required contribution.[11]

The Big Question: If New Jersey can’t finance the pensions it owes public employees or keep its commuter trains running or even discuss taxing a few thousand millionaires, how can it invest in New Jersey’s crucial assets like great public schools, the nation’s highest-quality preschool program, public colleges and universities or the nation’s 3rd largest public transit system?

Tax Reforms Can Bolster New Jersey’s Economic Future

By cleaning up the state tax code, reversing some of the most ill-advised tax cuts of recent years and asking the state’s wealthiest households to pitch in a bit more, New Jersey could raise over $2.5 billion in new revenues that could be invested in the state’s long-neglected assets, putting the state back on the right track.

Like all investments, public investments take time – and dollars – to bear fruit. Policymakers must begin sowing the seeds for restoring New Jersey’s economic prospects and achieving widely shared prosperity now – and they must do so by raising new revenue to make these critical investments. They should start by restoring the tax cuts that Gov. Christie held hostage to signing the overdue financing of the Transportation Trust Fund in 2016. 

Return the sales tax to 7 percent and modernize its application ($700 million+)

Most New Jerseyans haven’t been helped by the sales tax reduction by a third of a penny since 2016 (from 7 percent to 6.625 percent).[12] But the loss to the state of $600 million each year counts. For example, that’s near the amount that must be found next year to keep up with the 10-year schedule to fully fund pensions. Moreover, the economy has become more service than goods-oriented, yet the sales tax hasn’t kept up with the times. Expanding the sales tax to more services – such as accounting and interior design – would help modernize the sales tax without punishing low- and moderate-income families.[13]

Restore the estate tax at a threshold of $1 million ($400-600 million)

Under New Jersey’s recently-eliminated estate tax, only about 5 percent of the state’s 70,000 deaths each year triggered an estate tax payment. The new federal tax law doubles the floor on federal estate taxation to $24 million for a wife-husband estate, meaning that most of New Jersey’s wealthy families have nothing to worry about. Restoring the state estate tax with a threshold of $1 million would capture most of the dollars but very few of the estates that formerly were assessed. (In fact, it would recoup 93 percent of the tax revenue the state is now losing, capturing an estimated $5.6 billion over the next decade.[14]) On top of that, it would be sensible to increase the tax rate to capture some of the windfall the wealthiest heirs will get from the federal law.

Make the income tax more equitable by increasing rates on the wealthiest 5 percent of households ($1 billion+)

Increasing income tax rates on New Jersey’s wealthiest families households by creating 4 new income tax brackets and raising the top tax rate (on income over $2.5 million) to 11 percent would make the state’s tax code fairer. This tax increase – which is supported by 3 in 4 New Jersey voters – would be paid almost exclusively by New Jersey’s ultra-wealthy, with the top 1 percent – households with average annual incomes of $3 million – paying 85 percent of the new tax.[15] And even after this change, the wealthiest New Jerseyans would still be paying much less of their incomes on state and local taxes than the bottom 80 percent.

At the very least, policymakers should increase the income tax rate on earnings over $1 million, the so-called “millionaire’s tax” that would raise $600 million or more. The withdrawal of support by the Senate President puts even this modest revenue increase in peril, but does not dilute the fairness or value of it. The argument that its renewal would somehow lead to a loss of revenue defies simple arithmetic and common sense. The number of households with over $1 million in income filing taxes in New Jersey increased from 13,300 in 2005 to 20,600 by 2015, a 55 percent increase, which hardly represents the “exodus” so frequently asserted.[16] And the percentage of households reporting incomes of $500,000 and up increased five-fold in the years 1994 to 2014 (from .4 of 1% to 2%).

Close corporate tax loopholes used by multi-state corporations ($110m to $290m)

“Combined reporting” requires multi-state corporations to file a tax return that captures its business activities in all states in which they conduct business. This approach, which is now in force in 25 of the 45 states with a corporate business tax including such classic “red” states as Texas, Utah and Montana, prevents corporations from transferring profits to states without a business tax or ones with a very low tax rate. Most of New Jersey’s largest corporations are already honoring combined reporting requirements in other states without dire consequences.[17]

Consider recouping a piece of the windfall corporations will receive from the federal tax changes ($500m)

The recently enacted federal tax “reform” is friendliest to corporations, which have been granted a permanent and significant tax cut. It’s sensible for New Jersey to offset some of this windfall by modestly raising the corporate tax rate and investing the new revenue in public assets and services that can boost the state’s economy and help working families get ahead. An increase of 2.5 percent from the current rate of 9 percent would produce approximately $500 million in additional revenues without diluting strongly the federal tax windfall.

These are tax changes that need attention and deliberation if New Jersey is to return to a competitive economic position. Without raising these revenues to restore and expand public investments, New Jersey will continue to be in the bottom 20 percent of states for economic activity and job growth.

Next Tuesday, Gov. Murphy will present his first budget. If it does not call for significant new revenues, then New Jersey is fated to continue on its downward slide of a quarter century without the means to invest in the state’s neglected assets.


Endnotes

[1] New Jersey Office of Management and Budget, Fiscal 2009 Budget in Brief, February 2008. http://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/publications/09bib/BIB.pdf

[2] New Jersey Office of Management and Budget, The Governor’s FY 2013 Budget Summary, February 2012. http://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/publications/13bib/BIB.pdf

[3] New Jersey Department of Community Affairs, Property Tax Tables, 2017, http://www.state.nj.us/dca/divisions/dlgs/resources/property_docs/17_data/17taxes.xls

[4] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, A Lost Decade in Higher Education Funding State Cuts Have Driven Up Tuition and Reduced Quality, August 2017. https://www.cbpp.org/research/a-lost-decade-in-higher-education-funding-state-cuts-have-driven-up-tuition-and-reduced

[5] NJPP analysis of Commonfund Higher Education Price Index, 2017 Update. Available at https://www.commonfund.org/commonfund-institute/higher-education-price-index-hepi/

[6] NJPP analysis of New Jersey Office of the Secretary of Higher Education enrollment statistics. Available at http://www.state.nj.us/highereducation/statistics/index.shtml#ENR

[7] Ibid 5

[8] The Star-Ledger, Boston’s stuck! Beantown rail fleet tops NJ Transit as least reliable, October 2017. http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2017/10/nj_transit_trains_are_no_longer_the_least_reliable_in_us_but_its_close.html

[9] The Star-Ledger, Do N.J. rail commuters pay the highest fares in America?, May 2016. http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2016/05/nj_rail_riders_still_pay_the_highest_fares_in_america_or_dont_they.html

[10] The Pew Charitable Trusts, State Rainy Day Funds Grow Even as Total Balances Lag, Updated January 2018. http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2014/fiscal-50#ind5

[11] “State of New Jersey, Debt Report, Fiscal Year 2016, March 2017. http://www.nj.gov/treasury/public_finance/pdf/DebtReportFY2016.pdf

[12] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Poll: Most New Jerseyans Want Bold Solutions on State Taxes, November 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/poll-most-new-jerseyans-want-bold-solutions-on-taxes-public-investments

[13] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Modernizing New Jersey’s Sales Tax Will Level the Playing Field & Help the Economy Thrive, February 2018. https://www.njpp.org/budget/modernizing-new-jerseys-sales-tax-will-level-the-playing-field-help-the-economy-thrive

[14] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Fairly and Adequately Taxing Inherited Wealth Will Fight Inequality & Provide Essential Resources for All New Jerseyans, June 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/fairly-and-adequately-taxing-inherited-wealth-will-fight-inequality-provide-essential-resources-for-all-new-jerseyans

[15] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Reforming New Jersey’s Income Tax Would Help Build Shared Prosperity, September 2017. https://www.njpp.org/budget/reforming-new-jerseys-income-tax-would-help-build-shared-prosperity

[16] NJPP analysis of New Jersey Treasury Department Statistics on Income data, 2006 and 2017.

[17] New Jersey Policy Perspective, Nearly All of New Jersey’s Largest Employers Already Subject to ‘Combined Reporting’ in Other States, January 2016. https://www.njpp.org/budget/nearly-all-of-new-jerseys-largest-employers-already-subject-to-combined-reporting-in-other-states